AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 11, 2026
Last updated: May 24, 2026, 8:15AM | Published: May 17, 2026, 1:16PM
Looking for data-driven AFL tips for Round 11? We have AFL Round 11 tips 2026 for every match this weekend.
Get an edge in AFL tipping competitions thanks to our data-driven AFL expert tips for Round 11 of the 2026 AFL season, which are the result of simulating each AFL game 10,000 times.
AFL Round 11 Expert Tips 2026
There are nine games in Round 11 of the 2026 AFL season, starting with Hawthorn vs Adelaide on Thursday and ending with the Bulldogs vs Melbourne on Sunday.
The below AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by trusted data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 11 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters of every level.
AFL Tips Round 11 2026: Who Will Win
Listed below are our predictions for each AFL game in Round 11, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide
Round 11 action kicks off with Hawthorn facing Adelaide at University of Tasmania Stadium on Thursday night. Our model projects Hawthorn as having a 65% chance of winning, while Adelaide has a 35% projected win chance.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide is at University of Tasmania Stadium on Thursday, May 21 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Richmond vs Essendon
In Friday night's game between Richmond and Essendon, the Bombers are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 67% chance for Essendon. Richmond, on the other hand, has a 33% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Richmond vs Essendon is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, May 22 at 7:45pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
Fremantle vs St Kilda
We are tipping Fremantle to win its game against St Kilda this week, with our powerful AFL model projecting a 76% win probability for the Dockers. St Kilda has a 24% chance of winning at Optus Stadium.
Fremantle vs St Kilda is at Optus Stadium on Friday, May 22 at 8:30pm.
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast
With a win probability of 61%, our tip for this match is Gold Coast, while its opponent, North Melbourne, has a projected win chance of 39%.
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, May 23 at 1:15pm.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Geelong vs Sydney
The Cats have a 67% chance of winning this week, compared to Sydney's 33% chance of victory. This makes Geelong the team to tip at GMHBA Stadium.
Geelong vs Sydney is at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, May 23 at 4:15pm.
Collingwood vs West Coast
Collingwood is favoured to win its game this week, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 94% chance, while West Coast enters the weekend with a 6% chance of causing an upset at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Collingwood vs West Coast is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, May 23 at 4:35pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Port Adelaide vs Carlton
According to our predictive analytics model, Port Adelaide is the team to beat in this game, with the Power's win probability at 62%. Carlton, on the other hand, has a 38% chance of winning.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, May 23 at 7:35pm.
GWS vs Brisbane
We are tipping the Lions in this match, with Brisbane given a 59% chance of winning, while GWS has a 41% win probability.
GWS vs Brisbane is at Giants Stadium on Sunday, May 24 at 12:30pm.
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
The last game of Round 11 sees the Western Bulldogs take on Melbourne at Marvel Stadium.
With both teams projected as having a 50% chance of winning according to our model, we are tipping the Western Bulldogs to get the win due to a slight edge in the probabilites.
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, May 24 at 3:15pm.
AFL Tipping Round 11 2026: Who to Tip
- Hawthorn
- Essendon
- Fremantle
- Gold Coast
- Geelong
- Collingwood
- Port Adelaide
- Brisbane
- Bulldogs
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 11 Games to Tip On
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows
- Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers
- Fremantle Dockers vs St Kilda Saints
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns
- Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans
- Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles
- Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues
- GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions
- Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons
The AFL footy tips Round 11 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
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