AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 10, 2026
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 11:16AM | Published: May 10, 2026, 9:16AM
To give you an advantage with your AFL tips for Round 10, we have AFL Round 10 tips 2026 for every match this weekend.
Gain an edge in your AFL tipping competitions thanks to our data-driven AFL expert tips for Round 10 of the 2026 AFL season, which come from simulating each AFL match-up 10,000 times.
AFL Round 10 Expert Tips 2026
Footy fans have nine games to watch this week, beginning with Brisbane vs Geelong on Thursday and finishing with West Coast vs GWS on Sunday.
Our AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by cutting-edge data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 10 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters across the country.
AFL Tips Round 10 2026: Who Will Win
Featured below are our predictions for each AFL game in Round 10, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Brisbane vs Geelong
Round 10 AFL action kicks off with Brisbane taking on Geelong at The Gabba on Thursday night. Our AFL model projects Brisbane as having a 70% chance of winning, while Geelong has a 30% projected win chance.
Brisbane vs Geelong is at The Gabba on Thursday, May 14 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Sydney vs Collingwood
In Friday night's game between Sydney and Collingwood, the Swans are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting an 85% chance for Sydney. On the other hand, Collingwood has a 15% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Sydney vs Collingwood is at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Friday, May 15 at 7:30pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide
We are tipping Gold Coast to win its game against Port Adelaide this week, with our model projecting a 75% win probability for the Suns. Port Adelaide has a 25% chance of winning at TIO Stadium.
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide is at TIO Stadium on Friday, May 15 at 8:10pm.
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
With a win probability of 59%, our tip for this game is the Western Bulldogs, while their opponent, Carlton, has a projected win chance of 41%.
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, May 16 at 7:35pm.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Essendon vs Fremantle
The Dockers have an 81% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to Essendon's 19% chance of victory. This makes Fremantle the team to tip at Marvel Stadium.
Essendon vs Fremantle is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, May 17 at 1:10pm.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Adelaide is favoured to win this game, with our model giving them a 68% chance, while North Melbourne enters the weekend with a 32% chance of causing an upset at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, May 16 at 1:15pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Melbourne vs Hawthorn
According to our predictive analytics model, Hawthorn is the team to beat in this game, with the Hawks' win probability at 63%. Melbourne, on the other hand, has a 37% chance of winning.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, May 16 at 4:15pm.
St Kilda vs Richmond
Our model is tipping the Saints in this match, with St Kilda given an 87% chance of winning, while Richmond has a 13% chance of an upset win.
St Kilda vs Richmond is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, May 17 at 3:15pm.
West Coast vs GWS
The last game of Round 10 sees West Coast take on GWS at Optus Stadium.
We are tipping GWS with a win probability of 80%, while West Coast is projected to have a win chance of 20%.
West Coast vs GWS is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, May 17 at 6:15pm.
AFL Tipping Round 10 2026: Who to Tip
- Brisbane
- Sydney
- Gold Coast
- Bulldogs
- Fremantle
- Adelaide
- Hawthorn
- St Kilda
- GWS
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 10 Games to Tip On
- Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats
- Sydney Swans vs Collingwood Magpies
- Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power
- Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs
- Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers
- Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
- Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks
- St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
- West Coast Eagles vs GWS Giants
The AFL footy tips Round 10 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
If you choose to use our tips for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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