AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 1, 2026
Last updated: Mar 12, 2026, 6:19AM | Published: Mar 10, 2026, 11:58AM
To give you an advantage with your AFL tips for Round 1, we have AFL Round 1 tips 2026 for every game this weekend.
Gain an edge in your AFL tipping competitions thanks to our data-driven AFL expert tips for Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season, the result of simulating each AFL match-up 10,000 times.
AFL Round 1 Expert Tips 2026
There are nine games in Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season, beginning with Carlton vs Richmond on Thursday and finishing with Gold Coast vs West Coast on Sunday.
Our AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by cutting-edge data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 1 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters across the country.
AFL Tips Round 1 2026: Who Will Win
Detailed below are our predictions for each AFL clash in Round 1, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Carlton vs Richmond
Round 1 AFL action kicks off with Carlton playing Richmond at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday night. Our predictive analytics model projects Carlton as having a 71% chance of winning, while Richmond has a 29% win probability.
Carlton vs Richmond is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, March 12 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).
Essendon vs Hawthorn
In Friday night's game between Essendon and Hawthorn, the Hawks are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting an 80% chance for Hawthorn. Essendon, on the other hand, has a 20% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Essendon vs Hawthorn is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, March 13 at 7:40pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
Western Bulldogs vs GWS
We are tipping the Western Bulldogs to win their game against GWS this week, with our powerful AFL model projecting a 74% win probability for the Western Bulldogs. GWS has a 26% chance of winning.
Western Bulldogs vs GWS is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, March 14 at 1:15pm AEDT.
Geelong vs Fremantle
With a win probability of 71%, our tip for this match is Geelong, while its opponent, Fremantle, has a projected win chance of 29%.
Geelong vs Fremantle is at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, March 14 at 4:15pm AEDT.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Sydney vs Brisbane
The Swans have a 57% chance of winning on Saturday night, compared to Brisbane's 43% chance of victory. This makes Sydney the team to tip at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
Sydney vs Brisbane is at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Saturday, March 14 at 7:10pm AEDT.
Collingwood vs Adelaide
Collingwood is favoured to win this one, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 62% chance, while Adelaide enters the weekend with a 38% chance of causing an upset at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Collingwood vs Adelaide is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, March 14 at 7:35pm AEDT.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
According to our predictive analytics model, North Melbourne is the team to beat in this game, with the Kangaroos' win probability at 56%. Port Adelaide, on the other hand, has a 44% chance of winning.
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, March 15 at 1:10pm AEDT.
Melbourne vs St Kilda
After simulating this game 10,000 times, our model is projecting each team to have a win probability of 50%, with the official tip being Melbourne, who is slightly favoured over St Kilda.
Melbourne vs St Kilda is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, March 15 at 3:15pm AEDT.
Gold Coast vs West Coast
The last game of Round 1 sees Gold Coast take on West Coast at Metricon Stadium.
We are tipping Gold Coast with a win probability of 98%, while West Coast is projected to have a win chance of just 2%.
Gold Coast vs West Coast is at Metricon Stadium on Sunday, March 15 at 6:10pm AEDT.
AFL Tipping Round 1 2026: Who to Tip
- Carlton
- Hawthorn
- Bulldogs
- Geelong
- Sydney
- Collingwood
- North Melbourne
- Melbourne
- Gold Coast
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 1 Games to Tip On
- Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
- Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks
- Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants
- Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
- Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
- Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power
- Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints
- Gold Coast Suns vs West Coast Eagles
The AFL footy tips Round 1 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and trustworthy, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
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