AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Gather Round, 2026
Last updated: Apr 8, 2026, 8:15PM | Published: Apr 6, 2026, 9:15AM
To give you an advantage with your AFL tips for Gather Round, we have AFL Round 5 tips 2026 for every game this weekend.
As Australia's leading provider of AFL expert tips, Stats Insider is here to give you some help with AFL tipping for each game in Round 5 of the 2026 season.
AFL Gather Round Expert Tips 2026
There are nine games in Gather Round of the 2026 AFL season, starting with Adelaide vs Carlton on Thursday and finishing with Geelong vs West Coast on Sunday.
Our AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by trusted data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 5 2026 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters of every level.
AFL Tips Gather Round 2026: Who Will Win
Detailed below are our predictions for each AFL game in Round 5, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Adelaide vs Carlton
Round 5 AFL action kicks off with Adelaide facing Carlton at Adelaide Oval on Thursday. Our AFL model projects Adelaide as having an 86% chance of winning, while Carlton has a 14% win probability.
Adelaide vs Carlton is at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, April 9 at 7:40pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Collingwood vs Fremantle
In this week's game between Collingwood and Fremantle, the Dockers are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 64% chance for Fremantle. Collingwood, on the other hand, has a 36% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Collingwood vs Fremantle is at Adelaide Oval on Friday, April 10 at 7:40pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2026 Tips
North Melbourne vs Brisbane
We are tipping Brisbane to win its game against North Melbourne this week, with our model projecting an 81% win probability for the Lions. North Melbourne has a 19% chance of winning at Barossa Park.
North Melbourne vs Brisbane is at Barossa Park on Saturday, April 11 at 12:35pm.
Essendon vs Melbourne
With a win probability of 77%, our tip for this match is Melbourne, while its opponent, Essendon, has a projected win chance of 23%.
Essendon vs Melbourne is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, April 11 at 1:15pm.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Sydney vs Gold Coast
The Swans have a 54% chance of winning this week, compared to Gold Coast's 46% chance of victory. This makes Sydney the team to tip at Norwood Oval.
Sydney vs Gold Coast is at Norwood Oval on Saturday, April 11 at 4:15pm.
GWS vs Richmond
GWS is favoured to win this one, with our model giving them an 83% chance, while Richmond enters the weekend with a 17% chance of causing an upset at Barossa Park.
GWS vs Richmond is at Barossa Park on Sunday, April 12 at 3:15pm.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
According to our predictive analytics model, St Kilda is the team to beat in this game, with the Saints' win probability at 59%. Port Adelaide, on the other hand, has a 41% chance of winning.
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda is at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, April 12 at 7:15pm.
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
We are tipping the Hawks in this game, with Hawthorn given a 61% chance of winning, while Western Bulldogs have a 39% chance of an upset win.
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, April 11 at 7:35pm.
Geelong vs West Coast
The last game of Round 5 sees Geelong take on West Coast at Norwood Oval.
We are tipping Geelong with a win probability of 91%, while West Coast is projected to have a win chance of just 9%.
Geelong vs West Coast is at Norwood Oval on Sunday, April 12 at 12:30pm.
AFL Tipping Round 5 2026: Who to Tip
- Adelaide
- Fremantle
- Brisbane
- Melbourne
- Sydney
- GWS
- St Kilda
- Hawthorn
- Geelong
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 5 Games to Tip On
- Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues
- Collingwood Magpies vs Fremantle Dockers
- North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions
- Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons
- Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns
- GWS Giants vs Richmond Tigers
- Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs
- Geelong Cats vs West Coast Eagles
The AFL footy tips Gather Round 2026 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2026 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
If you choose to use our tips for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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