AFL Betting Tips and Multi for Round 11, 2022

Last updated: May 27, 2022, 2:44AM | Published: May 26, 2022, 1:44AM

The 2022 AFL ladder is starting to take shape and our model is firing on all cylinders with its best bets for the footy in Round 11.

Last week, our AFL model's line and H2H bets on the Value Summary page went 6/6 on closing lines, so make sure you keep an eye on it over the weekend.

As always, we've simulated this week's AFL games 10,000 times each to determine where the value lies for footy punters across Australia.

With AFL expert tips, betting odds, and predictions featured each and every week, check out our AFL betting tips for Round 11.

RELATED: Best Bets for Every AFL Game

Round 11 AFL Best Bets

Jason Castagna anytime goal at $1.62

Richmond's Jason Castagna has started the season with 10 goals in 10 games, kicking more than one in 8 games so far.

Now, with Tom Lynch out for the Tigers, our model has a nice edge on him to kick at least one more against Sydney on Friday night. Our fair odds sit at the low price of $1.29, which makes this a bet at the best odds we can find at $1.62 via Sportsbet.

For reference, Castagna's anytime goal odds are as low as $1.50 with Neds and Ladbrokes, so it's a decent difference if you're betting with Sportsbet.

Richmond and Sydney meet at the SCG on Friday, May 27 at 7:50pm AEST.

Gryan Miers anytime goal at $1.96

The much-maligned Cat is back in the 22 this week, replacing the injured Patrick Dangerfield, and he looks great value to kick a goal when Geelong faces Adelaide.

Although Miers has only kicked one goal so far this season, he does have 5 behinds, which at least shows he's getting himself into a position to kick them.

With Cooper Stephens and Francis Evans likely to get more midfield minutes with Dangerfield out, we expect Miers to spend more time forward and rate him a 67% chance of booting at least one major.

This probability has implied betting odds of $1.48, which means the $1.96 we're getting at TopSport is very nice.

The Cats host the Crows at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, May 28 at 1:45pm AEST.

West Coast +40.5 at $1.91

The Western Bulldogs' win over the Suns last week means they've finally won two on the trot in 2022, having gone loss-win-loss-win every week since Round 2 prior to that.

Now, while we're not saying the Eagles are going to beat the Bulldogs on Saturday night, a 40.5-point line is too high for a team as inconsistent as the Dogs.

West Coast also welcomes back Josh Kennedy this week, and with the Dogs' key backs struggling, he and fellow forward Josh Darling could definitely give them some problems.

Our model's predicted score has the Dogs winning by 34 points, which is a full goal less than the line. Basically, with a line of 40.5, our fair odds would be $1.79, making the $1.91 at Bet365 tasty value.

The Eagles host the Bulldogs at Optus Stadium on Saturday, May 28 at 7:30pm AEST.

AFL Multi Tips for Round 11

If you're looking to juice up your betting on footy this week, then a multi of our model's best AFL bets is the way to go!

Jason Castagna anytime goal ($1.62)
Gryan Miers anytime goal ($1.85)
West Coast +40.5 ($1.90)
Multi odds = $5.47

Multi odds via Sportsbet.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.