Adelaide vs Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 4, 2024

Adelaide will take on Melbourne in AFL Round 4 action at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, commencing at 7:40pm AEDT.

Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Adelaide vs Melbourne game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured below.

Who Will Win: Adelaide vs Melbourne

Using high-tech machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Adelaide-Melbourne AFL match 10,000 times.

Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Demons a 57% chance of defeating the Crows in Round 4 of the 2024 AFL season.

More: Adelaide vs Melbourne Match Centre

Adelaide vs Melbourne: Odds

The current betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are listed here:

  • Head to Head: Adelaide $2.46, Melbourne $1.67
  • Line: Adelaide +10.5 ($1.86), Melbourne -10.5 ($2.12)
  • Total (Over/Under 167.5 Points): Over $2.06, Under $1.92

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Adelaide at $2.46 and Melbourne at $1.67.

The Crows are listed as 10.5-point underdogs against the Demons, with odds of $1.86 currently on offer at TAB.

For the favourite Demons (-10.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $2.12.

The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 167.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.06 and odds for the Under at $1.92.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Crows (+10.5) have a 57% chance of covering the line, while the 167.5-point Over/Under has a 51% chance of staying Under.

More: Best Bets Today for All Sports

Adelaide vs Melbourne: Best Bets

  • Head to Head: Adelaide at $2.46 with (2.1% edge)
  • Line: Adelaide +10.5 at $1.86 with Betfair (57% probability)
  • Total Points: Over 167.5 at $2.06 with Betfair (0.8% edge)

Today's Adelaide vs Melbourne predictions are based on world-class simulations and betting intelligence to give you the best possible advice around the clock.

While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Crows to win is our preferred option because of the 2.1% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.

Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.

Furthermore, despite the Under being more likely to hit in this game, Over 167.5 is our best bet because of the better odds ($2.06) that are available from Betfair.

Looking for further insight on Round 4 AFL action? Matt from Champion Bets has put his knowledge and background as a data scientist to work, finding markets that are easier to win money on.

He then uses this knowledge to send you the best bets of every AFL round straight to you.

Click here and use promo code STATS to get 20% off your AFL Champion Bets subscription.

Adelaide vs Melbourne: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Adelaide vs Melbourne at Adelaide Oval this Thursday has Melbourne winning 86-80.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Adelaide vs Melbourne on Thursday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live win probabilities.

Adelaide vs Melbourne: Goal Kickers

Are you looking for Adelaide vs Melbourne goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Adelaide's Taylor Walker is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Adelaide vs Melbourne.

Walker has an 8.0% chance of kicking the first goal at Adelaide Oval, while the Crows star has a 91.5% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.

Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.

First Goal Kicker Tips


  • Taylor Walker: 8.0% probability
  • Izak Rankine: 6.4% probability
  • Darcy Fogarty: 5.4% probability
  • Josh Rachele: 4.8% probability
  • Ben Keays: 2.9% probability


  • Bayley Fritsch: 6.9% probability
  • Kysaiah Pickett: 5.9% probability
  • Christian Petracca: 5.0% probability
  • Ben Brown: 4.6% probability
  • Jacob van Rooyen: 3.5% probability

Anytime Goal Kicker Tips


  • Taylor Walker: 91.5% probability
  • Izak Rankine: 84.5% probability
  • Darcy Fogarty: 79.8% probability
  • Josh Rachele: 75.1% probability
  • Ben Keays: 58.5% probability


  • Bayley Fritsch: 86.5% probability
  • Kysaiah Pickett: 79.6% probability
  • Christian Petracca: 75.6% probability
  • Ben Brown: 73.3% probability
  • Jacob van Rooyen: 63.4% probability

Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting tips before the Adelaide vs Melbourne match at Adelaide Oval.

As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

More: AFL Player Ratings 2024

Adelaide vs Melbourne: Preview

The AFL Round 4 clash between the Crows and Demons at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to start at 7:40pm AEDT on Thursday.

  • Teams: Adelaide vs Melbourne
  • Date: Thursday 4 April 2024
  • Time: 7:40pm AEDT
  • Venue: Adelaide Oval

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise stated.

Our Adelaide vs Melbourne predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.

If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit

More on the AFL

Stats Insider is your home for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, tips for every AFL game, and futures odds for the AFL.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.

Related Articles
More Articles