Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Semi-Final 2025
Last updated: Sep 12, 2025, 9:35AM | Published: Sep 9, 2025, 7:20AM
Adelaide will face Hawthorn in AFL Semi-Final action at Adelaide Oval on Friday, commencing at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Adelaide vs Hawthorn game, along with the latest betting odds.
Who Will Win?
Using advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Adelaide vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Crows a 51% chance of defeating the Hawks in their AFL semi-final clash.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are shown here:
- Head to Head: Adelaide $1.75, Hawthorn $2.15
- Line: Adelaide -4.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn +4.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 164.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Adelaide at $1.75 and Hawthorn at $2.15.
The Crows are 4.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Hawks (+4.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 164.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (+4.5) are predicted to cover the line 55% of the time, while the 164.5-point over/under is expected to is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $2.15 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn +4.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Over 164.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Stats Insider's Adelaide vs Hawthorn best bets are based on complex simulations and gambling intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Crows have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our recommended option due to the 2.6% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges published here at Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Adelaide vs Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval this Friday is Adelaide winning 82-81.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full coverage of the Adelaide vs Hawthorn match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and free betting tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Our model updates frequently, so bookmark this page for the latest betting predictions before the Adelaide vs Hawthorn match.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Semi-Final clash between the Crows and Hawks at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to start at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Adelaide vs Hawthorn predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's important to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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