Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 21, 2025
Last updated: Jul 31, 2025, 4:35PM | Published: Jul 27, 2025, 10:10PM
Adelaide will face Hawthorn in AFL Round 21 action at Adelaide Oval on Friday, starting at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Adelaide vs Hawthorn game, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Adelaide vs Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Crows a 69% chance of defeating the Hawks in Round 21 of the 2025 AFL season.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Bet365 betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are listed here:
- Head to Head: Adelaide $1.44, Hawthorn $2.80
- Line: Adelaide -14.5 ($1.91), Hawthorn +14.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 164.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Adelaide at $1.44 and Hawthorn at $2.80.
The Crows are listed as 14.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Hawks (+14.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 164.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (+14.5) are predicted to cover the line 52% of the time, while the 164.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 56% of the time.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Adelaide at $1.44 with Bet365
- Line: Hawthorn +14.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 164.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Adelaide vs Hawthorn predictions are based on market-leading modelling and betting experience to bring you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Adelaide vs Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval this Friday is Adelaide winning 87-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Adelaide vs Hawthorn match on Friday, including data-driven predictions and live scorestips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Goal Kickers
Searching for Adelaide vs Hawthorn goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Adelaide's Riley Thilthorpe is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Adelaide vs Hawthorn.
Thilthorpe has a 6.6% chance of kicking the first goal at Adelaide Oval, while the Crows star has an 85.1% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for the full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 6.6% probability
- Taylor Walker: 6.4% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 6.0% probability
- Ben Keays: 5.9% probability
- Izak Rankine: 5.9% probability
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 6.4% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 5.2% probability
- Calsher Dear: 3.8% probability
- Dylan Moore: 3.7% probability
- Mabior Chol: 3.6% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 85.1% probability
- Taylor Walker: 84.8% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 82.3% probability
- Ben Keays: 80.7% probability
- Izak Rankine: 80.3% probability
Hawthorn
- Jack Gunston: 84.3% probability
- Mitch Lewis: 78.7% probability
- Nick Watson: 66.0% probability
- Calsher Dear: 65.0% probability
- Mabior Chol: 64.2% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Adelaide vs Hawthorn game.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn: Essential Details
The AFL Round 21 clash between the Crows and Hawks at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Adelaide vs Hawthorn predictions are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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