Adelaide vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 6, 2024
Last updated: Apr 19, 2024, 9:33AM | Published: Apr 15, 2024, 9:16AM
Adelaide will play Essendon in AFL Round 6 action at Adelaide Oval on Friday, starting at 7:40pm AEST.
Stats Insider's top betting tips for the Adelaide vs Essendon game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured in this article.
Who Will Win: Adelaide vs Essendon
Based on high-tech machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Friday's Adelaide-Essendon AFL match 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Crows a 66% chance of winning against the Bombers at Adelaide Oval.
More: Adelaide vs Essendon Simulated 10K Times
Adelaide vs Essendon: Odds
The current betting odds for Friday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are listed below:
- Head to Head: Adelaide $1.45, Essendon $3.20
- Line: Adelaide -14.5 ($2.00), Essendon +14.5 ($1.98)
- Total (Over/Under 170.5 Points): Over $2.08, Under $1.86
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, TAB currently has Adelaide at $1.45 and Essendon at $3.20.
The Crows are 14.5-point favourites against the Bombers, with odds of $2.00 currently available at TAB.
For the underdog Bombers (+14.5) to cover the line, TAB currently has odds of $1.98.
The Over/Under for Adelaide vs Essendon sits at 170.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.08 and odds for the Under at $1.86.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bombers (+14.5) have a 54% chance of covering the line, while the 170.5-point Over/Under has a 57% chance of staying Under.
More: AFL Fixture Difficulty 2024
Adelaide vs Essendon: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Essendon at $3.20 with (3.0% edge)
- Line: Essendon +14.5 at $1.98 with Betfair (54% probability)
- Total Points: Under 170.5 at $1.86 with Betfair (57% probability)
Stats Insider's Adelaide vs Essendon betting tips are based on market-leading modelling and betting intelligence to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Crows have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our recommended option because of the 3.0% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
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Adelaide vs Essendon: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Adelaide vs Essendon at Adelaide Oval this Friday has Adelaide winning 89-77.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Adelaide vs Essendon on Friday, including pre-match predictions, free betting tips, and live win probabilities.
Adelaide vs Essendon: Goal Scorers
Searching for Adelaide vs Essendon goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Adelaide's Taylor Walker is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Adelaide vs Essendon.
Walker has a 9.8% chance of kicking the first goal at Adelaide Oval, while the Crows star has a 95.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Adelaide
- Taylor Walker: 9.8% probability
- Izak Rankine: 6.5% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 6.3% probability
- Josh Rachele: 5.1% probability
- Lachlan Gollant: 3.8% probability
Essendon
- Jake Stringer: 7.2% probability
- Kyle Langford: 6.8% probability
- Jade Gresham: 4.7% probability
- Harrison Jones: 4.4% probability
- Jye Caldwell: 2.8% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Adelaide
- Taylor Walker: 95.3% probability
- Izak Rankine: 85.7% probability
- Darcy Fogarty: 84.2% probability
- Josh Rachele: 79.7% probability
- Ben Keays: 67.3% probability
Essendon
- Jake Stringer: 88.1% probability
- Kyle Langford: 87.2% probability
- Jade Gresham: 75.3% probability
- Harrison Jones: 71.8% probability
- Alwyn Davey: 50.2% probability
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Adelaide vs Essendon match at Adelaide Oval.
As always, see our Best Bets for the best tips for every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Adelaide vs Essendon: Preview
The AFL Round 6 clash between the Crows and Bombers at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to start at 7:40pm AEST on Friday.
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
Our Adelaide vs Essendon predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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