Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2026
Last updated: Apr 9, 2026, 9:35AM | Published: Apr 6, 2026, 6:25AM
Adelaide will take on Carlton in AFL Round 5 action at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, beginning at 7:40pm AEST.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Adelaide vs Carlton game, along with the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Based on trusted machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Thursday's Adelaide vs Carlton AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Crows an 85% chance of defeating the Blues in Round 5 of the 2026 AFL season.
Adelaide vs Carlton: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds for Thursday's AFL clash at Adelaide Oval are listed below:
- Head to Head: Adelaide $1.13, Carlton $6.00
- Line: Adelaide -34.5 ($1.91), Carlton +34.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 168.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has Adelaide at $1.13 and Carlton at $6.00.
The Crows are 34.5-point favourites against the Blues, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Blues (+34.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 168.5 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Blues (+34.5) are predicted to cover the line 51% of the time, while the 168.5-point over/under is expected to stay under 53% of the time.
Adelaide vs Carlton: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Carlton at $6.00 with Bet365
- Line: Carlton +34.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 168.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
Today's Adelaide vs Carlton predictions are based on detailed modelling and betting experience to bring you the best possible advice every time.
While the Crows have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Blues to win is our recommended option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges seen on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
Adelaide vs Carlton: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Adelaide vs Carlton at Adelaide Oval on Thursday is Adelaide winning 99-66.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Adelaide vs Carlton match on Thursday, including data-driven predictions and expert tips.
18+. Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.Adelaide vs Carlton: Goal Kickers
Searching for Adelaide vs Carlton goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Adelaide's Riley Thilthorpe is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Adelaide vs Carlton.
Thilthorpe has an 8.3% chance of kicking the first goal at Adelaide Oval, while the Crows star has a 90.1% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for the complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 8.3% probability
- Izak Rankine: 6.7% probability
- Taylor Walker: 6.5% probability
- Ben Keays: 5.6% probability
- Josh Rachele: 5.4% probability
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 5.0% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 4.2% probability
- Francis Evans: 3.4% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 3.0% probability
- Patrick Cripps: 2.7% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Adelaide
- Riley Thilthorpe: 90.1% probability
- Izak Rankine: 86.5% probability
- Taylor Walker: 84.9% probability
- Ben Keays: 82.7% probability
- Josh Rachele: 80.9% probability
Carlton
- Harry McKay: 78.9% probability
- Ben Ainsworth: 69.1% probability
- Francis Evans: 62.5% probability
- Brodie Kemp: 61.5% probability
- Zac Williams: 58.5% probability
Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Adelaide vs Carlton match.
As always, see our Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, plus predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Adelaide vs Carlton: Essential Details
The AFL Round 5 clash between the Crows and Blues at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 7:40pm AEST on Thursday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST), unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
Our Adelaide vs Carlton predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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