Adelaide or Port - Who Wins Showdown #44?
May 11, 2018, 6:05AM
In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week Port Adelaide take on Adelaide in the 44th edition of the showdown. Can Port make it 22 wins each or will Adelaide take their 6th derby win in a row?
 | Heart is a washing machine of feelings and thoughts heading into Showdown 44 to the point where I am legitimately considering asking my three year old to make the call for me. Crows form has been solid but had Suns and Blues on the rack last two home games and didn't put them away. Then there is Port who played a game of two halves last week in Perth - which Port will turn up Saturday? Help a Heart out would you Head. |
 | SI's models LOVE the Power this week. They're winning a surprising 56 percent of simulations whilst covering the spread a whopping 70 percent of the time. It's the standout pick amongst SI's punting predictions this week. |
 | It is easy to see why given Port's inclusions this week. Heart would love to jump in with the Port love but unfortunately I saw that first half last Saturday in Perth. I don't think I have seen a worse half of footy from a midfield all season. Now Ryder second up should see some improvement but gee whiz, it would have to be some turnaround in intent from Port Adelaide. Having said that the Crows H2H of $1.62 does look a little short. Might look past this market toward the Line. |
 | No argument that it'll take a severe turn around from Port Adelaide on multiple fronts. They've also lost the past five showdowns, and Adelaide's track record this season is a hell of a lot better. Adelaide are still very banged up, and that could prove a disadvantage even with the returning Walker. |
 | The way Port played last week certainly is great motivation for coach Ken Hinkley to inspire a collective lift and with this being a Showdown I am starting to gravitate toward that +9.5pt Line on offer for the Power. Not often we see Stats Insider like a Line option to the tune of 70% either! |
 | It's why Head is pushing the hashtag #TrustTheModel - it's a chance for the Power to underline their top 8 credentials and Finals aspirations, as they currently linger in 11th spot. |
 | Well look Head I didn't listen to you and your hashtagery last week when I expected Port to play with some ticker. The model it seems knew better. This week I find myself open to #TrustTheModel (which ironically means Port needs to play with some ticker) but it will be baby steps for Heart on the path to regaining confidence in Port. Like them at the +9.5pt Line best. I'm expect this game to be a relatively high-scoring affair so I also like the Overs at the 16.5pt markl |
 | It sounds like for the second week in a row you'll have to put our faith in Port Adelaide showing up. We'll cross our fingers with hope. |
Office Verdict: we'll go against the model this week. Adelaide will win and cover the 9.5 point line!
