They say it’s always darkest before the dawn, and after a horror month of rotten luck/shit tips, on the eve of what will be the best major of the year (perhaps the decade), I was gifted with a message of wisdom from the Goddess of the Punt during an episode of The Umbrella Academy.

“Don’t go chasing waterfalls, please stick to the rivers, and lakes, that you’re used to”. 

It’s not every day that the golfing gods send you a DM straight to your brain box, so naturally such universal, eon-spanning wisdom was taken onboard, instantly dominating our entire betting strategy for the 2020 U.S Open at Winged Foot.

Also, slightly unrelated but still important, a scrub is a guy that can’t get no love from me.  

The Course

The 2019 PGA Championships were played at Bethpage Black, a course that has a sign on the first tee saying ‘unless you’re really, really ridiculously good at golf, go away because this course will make you cry’.

Paraphrasing slightly there but my main point is, this course at Winged Foot makes Bethpage look like the kiddie pool. 

Par 70. Over 7470 yards. Slick, narrow fairways. Rough you would lose a Zinger Tower in (let alone a f**king golf ball) and a set of 18 green complexes that are, no hyperbole whatsoever, the toughest greens on the PGA Tour.  

Even IF you smoke your drive, even IF it is straight and doesn’t roll into the rough, even IF your 6 iron is tracking like a tracer bullet towards the pin, these greens have some 6-8ft of slope back to front so unless you are as stiff as a McAvaney after a Dusty or Cyril goal, you have a tough two putt for par still. 

The Strategy

Any amount of research into Winger Foot will demand close attention be paid to length and accuracy off the tee as a key metric this week, and it is, but for mine it is dwarfed by a wedge game. 

Players who cant get a solid 15ft look at par from inside 100m will not survive the cut this week. If the putt drops great, if it doesn’t it is a bogey and walk off, but anyone who has to play back onto the fairway THEN goes long or short or into a greenside bunker will be staring down doubles all day. 

There is also something to be said for the intangible of taking guys who don’t mind being beaten up and staying in the fight, guys who can walk off a hole having made par and not be filthy about missing the bird, or worried they have lost a shot to the field. 

We’re also taking guys who won't mind it a bit windy which it looks set to be Friday, and in general guys who excel the harder the course gets. 

Lastly, we are doing what the PGA players themselves are doing and adding a lot of prayer for luck into our strategy this week! 

The Betting Card

Like the PGA Tour pros arriving at Mamaroneck this week, golf punters ideally want to rock up to an event in a little bit of form, unfortunately here at Club 20 we are checking into Winged Foot feeling closer to Marc Leishman than Dustin Johnson.

Our horror month has seen almost all of our post-covid profits evaporate faster than Kevin Kisners twitter followers, so the pressure is well and truly on to not f*ck this one up and get back into the winners circle. 

So, let the tide begin to turn! 

Hideki Matsuyama 

FFS. To our horror, Deki leads our betting card going into the U.S Open. He drives it long and straight, but it is his inside 100 yard /scrambling / wedge game that we love here. He is a guy who is used to 3 putting for bogey and won't be rattled by a 5 bogey / 2 birdie round. Will also played out the 72 holes and is a guy we can see posting a clubhouse lead with 12-16 still on the course and luck boxing an outright win from the carnage. T3 at the BMW is a great hard-course / recent form. Ranked #1 in this field for SG Around the Green in the last 50 rounds, and #6 for scrambling. Gained on the greens 3 of last 4 starts. Taking outright, Top 5, Top 10.

Tiger Woods

The disrespect Tiger is getting pre-tournament is mind-boggling. Yes his putter has been absolute dogshit, we know that, he knows that. Who cares, he is one of the best putters to have ever played golf. His approaches are what I care about and they have been great. Has the wedge game, and he has experience at this course. Gets his mate JT in his 3-ball which always helps him. People are saying ‘you cant be coming into these greens with a cold putter’ but I disagree, this course can flip your confidence with the flatstick in 3 holes. Everyone will miss these, there is no pressure on Tiger to fire with it. If he gets off the tee ok, he will make the wknd, and from there, he could make history. Win, Top 5 and Top 10. 

Louis Oosthuizen

Has everything that this course will demand. Loves Poa and his U.S Open form is very very solid. Like Deki, he is long, straight and has a superb short game. Unlike Deki, he can get very hot with his putter and I can see a situation here where he is teeing off last on Sunday 3-4 shots clear. That scenario can produce a final round 84 which is always the issue with Oosty, but the price is too good to pass up for the experience and profile here. Win, Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20. 

Cam Smith

Worth taking a flyer on Smith to breakthrough for his first major. Loves it windy, loves Poa, one of the best scramblers in the field and is coming off his best ever finish at Eastlake two weeks ago. A T20 at the BMW (where he gained 4 strokes around the greens) shows the short game is where it needs to be, he gained over 6 strokes at the Northern Trust on approach. Just feel that there are signs that could all marry up here. Smith is a guy who can stand over a 15fter for par and make them more often than miss them. In addition to the Win, Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20, we’re taking his for the Top Aussie at 6.50. 

Christiaaaaaan Bezeidenhout

There is no way we are jumping off Bez now, not when he gets to a course where the whole field will struggle off the tee. His win at Valdorama last year highlights he can play tough courses and compete (and win). Missed on the number at the PGA but a T22 at Memorial which was arguably harder is encouraging. Loves it hard, loves it windy, inside 100 is a wizard and can roll them in from anywhere. Gonna throw up a 400-1 for him, we’re gonna bite! Win, Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20. 

Top Lefty Market – Brian Harman @ 4.00

With Bubba and Phil likely to blow up at any stage of any hole, we’re looking to the guy who plays it down the middle, has a solid around the green game and who is used to grinding pars. 

That makes 20 bets for the 2020 U.S open – now if we could only watch the AM waves. 

Good luck to all Club 20 punters, make sure you follow along with us on twitter and remember, watch out for those waterfalls. They’ll get ya!

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