Let’s tackle the biggest storylines in college football after the fourth full weekend of the regular season:

1 – The big hitters aren’t hitting big anymore

Jim Harbaugh of Michigan. Jimbo Fisher of Texas A&M. These two men used to be rock-star head coaches in college football. Emphasis on “used to be,” because they no longer enjoy or deserve such status.

Harbaugh won big at Stanford – STANFORD – and brought that program from the rubble of ineptitude to a top-five position in the sport, setting the table for David Shaw to continue to dominate for several years in this calendar decade.

Now, Harbaugh and Shaw are both scratching their heads and wondering if they will ever get off the mat. Michigan and Stanford might not win seven games this season. That is not a prediction, but it is also an entirely realistic scenario.

Speaking of not winning seven games, Jimbo Fisher – a national championship head coach at Florida State, and a former Nick Saban assistant who has succeeded handsomely in this industry for a decade and a half – might not win seven games this year at Texas A&M. His Aggies were expected to lose to Clemson, but they were also expected to beat Auburn and fight for SEC West supremacy.

After A&M was out-played, out-hit, and out-coached by Auburn and Gus Malzahn in Week 4, the Aggies are looking down the barrel of a miserable season.

Alabama is still on the schedule. LSU is still on the schedule. Georgia is still on the schedule.

The Aggies do not appear to be in the same class as those three programs. Add three more losses to A&M’s current total of two. You can do the math: That is five losses. A&M will have to run the table in all its other games just to get to 7-5.

The big hitters don’t hit big anymore in college football, a reality magnified by Willie Taggart (FSU) and Justin Fuente (Virgina Tech) also getting tagged to start this season.

<ad>

2 – The Pac-12 is dead

Washington State blew a 32-point lead to UCLA, allowing 67 points to an 0-3 team which had not scored more than 14 points in any of its previous three games this season.

Arizona State lost at home to Colorado.

Utah, picked by many to win the Pac-12 – not just the Pac-12 South Division – lost at USC and the Trojans’ third-string quarterback, Matt Fink.

The California (Berkeley) Golden Bears are the only unbeaten team left in the Pac-12.

The conference is almost certain to place only one team (the conference champion) in one of the six New Year’s bowl games, the games with the most prestige and the highest payouts to the participating conferences.

The Pac-12 season is already a disaster.

3 – Ohio State and Wisconsin

The Big Ten was viewed by some as a league in which Michigan had the inside track to the East Division title, and the West Division was going to be a chaotic free-for-all. Instead, Ohio State and Wisconsin have risen to the top of the conference with resounding performances. Iowa might be the only team (in the West Division) which can stand in the way of an Ohio State-Wisconsin Big Ten Championship Game. 

The Big Ten’s “chaos scenario” has already been blown up. Two teams have announced themselves as the class of the conference in September.

4 – TCU and the Big 12 underclass

TCU losing at home to SMU shows that the 'Horned Frogs' – an elite program at times over the past five years – are nowhere close to elite in 2019. The Big 12’s underclass of eight teams is not making a strong impression in its attempt to compete with the two best teams in the conference, Texas and Oklahoma.

5 – AAC adjustments

The American Athletic Conference looks very different compared to Week 3. In one week, SMU won at TCU, Tulane rallied to defeat Houston, and preseason favourite, UCF, lost to Pittsburgh. 

UCF is still the best team in the league until proven otherwise, but the Knights’ grip on the conference doesn’t seem as firm right now. Moreover, the West Division of the AAC seems wide open with SMU and Tulane making huge statements. Every AAC West team other than Tulsa seems capable of winning the division. 

This figures to be a wild ride over the next two months.

<ad>

6 – Boise statement

The Boise State Broncos are huge beneficiaries of the UCF loss. Boise State won a tough, physical game on Friday night against Air Force to not only improve its position in the Mountain West Conference’s Mountain Division, but to increase its chances of winning the Group of Five championship, which will give the Broncos a much-desired return to a New Year’s Six Bowl. 

The Broncos haven’t been to an NY6 game in five years. That is the program’s goal this year. It looks even more attainable after Week 4.

7 – Survival in Georgia

September football is early-season football. Teams will not play at their best. They will show a lot of rough edges and imperfections. Just win, baby. Improve as the season goes along. Survive the September showdowns against good teams, and move forward.

This is what Georgia did against Notre Dame on Saturday.

The Bulldogs – if Oklahoma or Ohio State somehow lose twice – could fail to win the SEC Championship (losing to Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship Game) yet still make the College Football Playoff with a 12-1 record. 

This win over Notre Dame adds a lot of heft to their resume. 

If they can go unbeaten heading into the SEC title game and get help from upsets in the Big 12 and Big Ten, Georgia could make the playoff without having to win the SEC.

As for Notre Dame, this loss means the Irish have to run the table AND rely on other results to have any chance at the playoff. Notre Dame will simply not make the playoff at 10-2 under any circumstances whatsoever.  

Did you enjoy this article? Leave a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.