The Milwaukee Meltdown Is Now Complete

This image is a derivative of Milwaukee Bucks by Michael Tipton (CC BY-SA 2.0)

At 0-3, it barely felt real. The juggernaut Bucks, set to waltz through the East, were being annihilated.

The last two games of the series were a strange, uncomfortable denouement after the protagonist was abruptly removed. The substance of this disaster was in those first three games, where the Heat, with their 7th ranked offence and 12th ranked defence, were made to look like the Durant Warriors.

They rained threes on Milwaukee taking 50.6% of their field goals from deep, which would have been the highest proportion in the league during the regular season. 

They whirred the ball around the court, assisting on 63% of made shots. They treated the paint as off limits, but the threes came so easily that it didn't matter.

The Bucks defence - the best in the league - was reduced to a mindless caricature of itself. 

Time and time again, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder would spring wide open for threes, with Milwaukee refusing or unable to play a switching defence. The Bucks' drop coverage scheme was exploited over and over by cycles of drive and kick from a Miami team filled with smart, dangerous passers on a pristinely spaced floor. The defensive scheme was painfully predictable - a difficult exam but one where Miami was given the answers in advance, and more than capable of memorising them. 

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Typically, by virtue of blocking off the paint, Milwaukee rarely fouls. Somehow, they contrived to surrender a 38% free throw rate to the Heat, with Jimmy Butler repeatedly crafting his way to the line. 

The steady, easy diet of open threes and free throws led to Miami having a 116.9 offensive rating in the the first three games of the series - higher than Dallas's all-time greatest rating this season.

On offence, things looked even worse for Milwaukee. 

They scored at a rate that would have ranked 25th in the regular season.

Everything was painful and followed a simple, indigestible rhythm - Giannis Antetokounmpo would drive into a wall of three defenders and then pass the ball out to a shooter who couldn't shoot. Giannis, Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton - all below-average three-point shooters - combined to take 38 threes across the first three games, making 12 of them. Eric Bledsoe refused to shoot his broken shot, taking just four threes in these games. Giannis shooting 20 of 37 on free throws further submarined the whole show.

The most stunning development in the series - which, in retrospect, should have been more foreseeable - was that no single Buck could make anything happen from a standing start. In an annual tradition, Bledsoe lost his mind. Lopez, on offence, has become a player stuck between ideas and between generations, with a wonderful, dormant post game, in the name of modernity sent to the corners to shoot 31% on threes. That 2020 spacing is important, but in this series the Bucks could have perhaps benefited from Lopez spending a little more time in 2009.

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George Hill can only do so much. Wesley Matthews tries to do too much. Giannis, despite the breathtaking plays, the extraterrestrial euro steps and extra-human dunks, is a deeply flawed number one option in the context of this team. He cannot shoot - from deep, from mid-range, or from the line. He is a sound passer but not a great one. In this series, he had nothing to turn to. 

In the end, the most reliable offence for one of the greatest regular season teams of all-time was Khris Middleton hero ball. 

The Bucks were desperate for Malcolm Brogdon, a player they used to have. Last year, Brogdon was their second best player against Toronto, someone who gave them needed juice and menace off the dribble. They let him walk for seemingly no other reason than saving money. 

Without Brogdon, the Bucks were undressed. 

Losing to Miami is catastrophic. This year was perhaps Milwaukee’s best chance, in an open East with the Sixers sputtering and the Celtics not yet fully ascendant. Lopez, Bledsoe and Hill are all in their 30s. Middleton will be next year. Donte DiVincenzo is the best young piece for Giannis to grow old with in Milwaukee. 

There are many lessons. Mike Budenholzer has his problems and was embarrassed by Erik Spoelstra. The hard cap on the minutes of Giannis and Middleton, that suddenly disappeared for Middleton in game 4, was baffling, and so was the inability to adapt the defence to Miami’s shooters. 

But this was mostly about Giannis. 

The soon to be two-time MVP, the defensive player of the year, was outplayed by Jimmy Butler. 

Giannis is not LeBron - he is Shaq. He needs a running mate, his Kobe, his Wade. DiVincenzo will not do.

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