EPL Week 9: Betting Preview
Last updated: Oct 19, 2018, 5:45AM | Published: Oct 17, 2018, 9:51PM.jpg?w=750)
Another rotten international break is done is dusted and we can carry on with club football, with a tasty clash between Chelsea and Manchester United headlining the ninth round of the EPL.
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THE GAME: Chelsea v Man Utd
WHEN: Sat 20 Oct, 10:30pm EDT
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 total goals
Five of Chelsea’s league games have gone over 2.5, as have six of United’s, and the model has found some value to match the confidence brought about by that stat. United have kept just one clean sheet – against Burnley during their four-game losing streak – and haven’t kept a clean sheet at Chelsea since 2007.
Chelsea are nearly at full strength, while United have few concerns with Luke Shaw and Ander Herrera looking on track to be okay. With nine goals on the board themselves in their last five games, this looks the goods for a high-scoring epic.
THE GAME: Cardiff v Fulham
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 1:00am EDT
THE PLAY: Under 2.5 total goals / Both to Score - NO
Cardiff’s and Fulham’s matches this season have been producing a tonne of goals (10/16 over 2.5 goals), but they’ve both been the ones conceding them. Cardiff are still yet to find their first win and have found the back of the net just three times in their four home games, even with opportunities against the likes of Newcastle and Burnley. Fulham, similarly, have scored just three in their four games on the road.
THE GAME: West Ham v Tottenham
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 1:00am EDT
THE PLAY: West Ham to win
Tottenham look vulnerable and West Ham have a great opportunity here, with the model identifying the home side as some solid value. Always good to back an outsider at home when there’s an edge in their favour. Spurs are suffering some extensive injury problems which have only worsened during the break: Christian Eriksen is in doubt, as is Danny Rose who withdrew from the England squad and Victor Wanyama left the field early playing for Kenya.
Better news for the Hammers: Snodgrass should now be fit and Arnautovic has left the Austrian setup early to get himself in shape for this clash also. None of the last five meetings hosted by West Ham have been drawn, with the Hammers taking out three wins to two.
THE GAME: Newcastle v Brighton
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 1:00am EDT
THE PLAY: Newcastle to win
Newcastle have lost all four at home this season and are still searching for their first win. The model finds an opportunity to back them to break through at value against a Brighton side who fare just as poorly on the road – they’ve now gone 17 away league matches without a win, have been losing at HT and FT in five of their last six on the road, and have failed to score in five of their last seven. They’ve visited Newcastle just twice this century for a draw and a loss.
THE GAME: Huddersfield v Liverpool
WHEN: Sun 21 Oct, 3:30am EDT
THE PLAY: Huddersfield to win / Drawn match
Liverpool’s flying start to the season has stalled a little, albeit against strong opposition, and it leaves them slightly vulnerable away to a Huddersfield side who have conceded three goals in their last three games at home. The Reds are a significant -6% value, so bargain hunters could do worse than backing against them in their desired manner (be it double chances, handicaps or head to head).
Twice last season Liverpool followed up consecutive draws with a loss, though those were at Chelsea and Tottenham. If you can’t bring yourself to part way with cash on the Terriers, simply avoid Liverpool this weekend.
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