This image is a derivative of Rafael Nadal by Yann Caradec (CC BY-SA 2.0)

The race to London is heating up.

The ATP's top eight players from 2019 will get the chance to lift the Nitto ATP Tour Finals trophy in a season-ending showdown. 

We look at all the contenders and their quest towards greatness.

A massive Congratulations to the comeback king Andy Murray who ousted Stan Wawrinka in three tight sets at the Antwerp open. Not even Murray saw this coming. It was a great moment seeing Murray sit in his chair after the game and let all the emotions out after a strenuous year for the Scot.

A massive week for Denis Shapovalov in Stockholm sees him breakthrough for his maiden ATP title, while in Moscow Andrey Rublev captures his second title.

Rafael Nadal 

ATP Race to London Rank: 1st 

Points: 9225 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Paris Masters 1000 

Rafa Nadal, the winner of 28 of his last 29 matches, will look forward to the Paris Masters staring on the 28th of October. The wrist injury that has bothered him since the Laver Cup should be healed and ready for action.

KEY STATS:

When Rafa plays a top 10 player he has a stunning 160-84 (65.6%) record which puts him fourth all time against players past and present. Against top-20 opponents this year, Nadal has a 11-5 record.

During Masters 1000 events in 2019 he holds a stunning 19-2 record which is above both Roger Federer 17-4 and Novak Djokovic 18-6. 

Novak Djokovic

ATP Race to London Rank:  2nd 

Points: 7945 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Paris Masters 

Novak Djokovic, like Nadal, has his sights set on the Paris Masters next where he has won the event four times. The last victory in Paris came in 2015.

KEY STATS:

Novak Djokovicl is sitting at a 11-5 record against top 20 opponents this year.

Stats Insider’s World Rankings has Djokovic as the world's third-best hard court player only behind Rafael Nadal and the red hot Daniil Medvedev.

Djokovic leads the ATP Tour in break-points converted with 46.7%. Give this all-time great a chance and he is going to push you to breaking point.

Daniil Medvedev

ATP Race to London Rank: 3rd

Points: 5875 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: VTB Kremlin Cup  

Daniil Medvedev withdrew from the hometown Kremlin Cup to get some rest and will now look ahead to the Paris Masters where he has the chance to make a seventh final in a row.

KEY STATS:

Medvedev is ranked second on the ATP over the past 52 weeks with tie-breaks won, which sits him behind only Novak Djokovic. 

The Russian has the most Indoor hard court wins over the past 52 weeks with a 16-4 record and two titles to his name. Stats Insider's World Rankings also has him ranked the second-best player in the world on Hardcourts.

<ad>

Roger Federer

ATP Race to London Rank: 4th

Points: 5690 (+180)

Next Tournament: Swiss Indoors Basel 

Roger Federer will be playing in his hometown of Basel for his favourite ATP 500 event. The Swiss Maestro will be looking to win his tenth crown at Basel – yes, you read that correctly – before heading to Paris the week after.

Federer has drawn Peter Gojowczyk in the first round where he holds a strong 2-0 record in straight forward fashion.

A potential quarter final matchup against Antwerp finalist Stan Wawrinka will be a dream matchup for the Swiss fans. The Fed Express has an absurd 23-3 record where he has not lost to Stan the Man since 2015.

A semi-final could see Federer face off against an Australian Open nemesis in Stefanos Tsitsipas. The pair are 1-1 in head to head matches. Expect Federer to keep winning here, he has looked untouchable at this event over the past decade.

KEY STATS:

Federer is a cool 10-0 this year at ATP 500 events and holds a strong 13-6 record against top 20 opponents.

Roger is the tie-break G.O.A.T, leading all players past and present including, Arthur Ashe, Novak and Pete Sampras. Rogers currently sits at 65.1% where he has won 432 and lost 232.

On hardcourts in 2019, he is winning a massive 89.9% of service games and sits third in second serve points won at 57.6%.

Dominic Thiem

ATP Race to London Rank: 5th

Points: 4525 (qualified)

Next Tournament: Erste Bank Open, Vienna. 

It seems to be the month where a lot of players are back home playing in their countries tournament. Thiem plays in Vienna, Austria where he will be looking to be the first Austrian to win here since Jurgen Melzer who won back in 2009 and 2010.

Thiem has drawn the Frenchman Joe Wilfried-Tsonga in the first round. Tsonga has a 2-0 advantage over the Austrian but the pair haven’t played since 2016. Tsonga is only a shell of his former bounce self. so we can expect Thiem to get the job done in straight sets.

Thiem will be hoping Nikolz Basilashvili (1-1 record) gets the job done over Fernando Verdasco who has a stranglehold over the Austrian winning all four encounters. If Thiem survives he has another potential tough match against the Denis Shapovalov who captured his maiden ATP crown in Stockholm. Thiem has a handy 3-0 head-to-head record over the Canadian.

Berrettini could be waiting in the semis who got the victory over the Austrian in China a few weeks back.

KEY STATS: 

Thiem has a stunning 12-2 record at ATP 500 events this year and a solid 13-5 record over top-20 opponents.

Over the past 52 week on hard courts, Thiem has won 100% of his deciding sets. If Thiem is up for the grind, he is more than likely to get the job done. Stats Insider's World Rankings has Thiem ranked number ten in the world on hard courts, which is not far off his Clay court rank that sits at number two.

Stefanos Tsitsipas 

ATP Race to London Rank: 6th

Points: 3730 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Swiss Basel Indoors

Tsitsipas plays 42 ranked Alberto Ramos-Vinolas first up who he holds a 1-0 record against. Tsitsipas should take care of business before a potential quarter final against Fabio Fognini. Tsitsipas also holds the edge here with a 2-0 advantage.

I can see the run coming to a halt in the semi-finals against the 10x Basel champion Roger Federer.  

KEY STATS:

Stefanos has a stunning 12-4 indoor record over the past 52 weeks. Look for some more strong results for the Greek during the Indoor run. He also has a strong 14-6 record in ATP 500 events.

Tsitsipas is 10-7 against top 20 opponents this year and has won a solid 67% (28-14) of matches on hardcourt. Tsitsipas is a much safer bet on the clay courts where he is ranked sixth on the Stats Insider Tennis World Rankingsand has a 75% (15-5) win/loss record.

<ad>

Alexander Zverev

ATP Race to London Rank: 7th

Points: 2855 

Next Tournament: Swiss Basel Indoors  

A star studded lineup shouldn’t worry the German as we move Indoors where he holds a 7-2 record over the past 52 weeks.

First up, Zverev plays the 31st ranked American Taylor Fritz. Zverev holds a stead 2-0 record in this battle of the under 22’s.

A dangerous Alex De Minaur should be waiting in the second round where Zverev holds a stunning 4-0 advantage over the 20-year old Australian.

A quarterfinal matchup could see Zverev play the inconsistent Benoit Paire who he has beaten in their only matchup back in 2016.

On the easier side of the draw, Zverev could see David Goffin or Roberto Bautista Agut, two key players in the race to London in the semi-finals. Zverev holds an advantage over both players. Next up would be a rematch against Federer who he conquered in the Shanghai Master two weeks ago. 

KEY STATS: 

Sasha has a 12-5 record in ATP 500 events this year.

Zverev is only 5-8 this year against top 20 opponents. This will need to improve if he looks to breakout and win a grand slam or another season ending showdown.

Matteo Berrettini

ATP Race to London Rank: 8th

Points: 2525

Next Tournament: Erste Bank Open, Vienna.

Matteo Berrittini is geared up for the ATP 500 in Vienna and ready to make a strong case to why he belongs in the season ending showdown.

Berrittini has drawn Kyle Edmund in round one who in their only match last year beat Berrittini in three tight sets. Berrettini should get past the out of form Englishmen before matching up against Grigor Dimitrov in the second round. Dimitov holds a 1-0 advantage over the Italian in a straight sets victory earlier this year. A quarter final against Milos Raonic or Andrey Rublev in on the cards. Berrettini has never played Milos but had a superb straight sets victory over Rublev in the US Open.

If Berrettini has a strong week he should make a semi final where Thiem should be waiting for him.

KEY STATS:

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Berrettini ranked #42 on hard courts, which aligns with his 15-13 record on the surface this season. Put Berrettini on Grass or Clay courts this season he is a different animal with a 24-6 combined. 

The Italian has a 3-3 record in ATP 500 events and a great 8-4 record against top 20 opponents. 

Berrittinni is currently ranked fourth in the world at break points saved over the past 52 weeks at 70.3%. Coming into the indoor tournaments Berrittini has a 7-4 record over the past 52 weeks.

Roberto Bautista Agut

ATP Race to London Rank: 9th

Points: 2485

Next Tournament: Swiss Basel Indoors

Bautista Agut will need to pour all his energy into the Basel Indoors, where he looks to take back his spot in the eight. 

The Spaniard has drawn Marius Copil in the first round where he holds a solid 2-0 record. A quarter-final matchup against Goffin seems likely where the Belgian holds a tight 3-2 record.

I can't see Bautista Agut making it past Goffin but if he does the run will end in the semi final against Alexander Zverev who has the upper hand with a 4-2 record over the Spaniard.

KEY STATS: 

Bautista Agut has a 3-3 in ATP 500 events this year and a below par 6-10 record against top 20 players.

The Spaniard - who relies heavily on his baseline game - needs to get into rallies to win matches. He is currently ranked eighth on the tour for second serve return points won at 53.9%.

Bautista Agut also has a handy 23- 10 record on hardcourts this year, and Stats Insider has ranked him accordingly at number thirteen on the surface. In the Indoor tournaments he has a 4-3 advantage. 

David Goffin

ATP Race to London Rank: 10th

Points: 2325

Next Tournament: Swiss Basel Indoors

Goffin seriously chocked in his home country tournament in Antwerp. He lost his first match to Ugo Humbert 6-3 6-1.

Goffin will look to bounce back strong in Basel where he will play a tough Marin Cilic in the first round. Cilic has won his last three matches against Goffin but the recordit still tied 3-3. Cilic finally strung some wins together last week so he will be a dangerous first round opponent for Goffin. A tough draw sees Rilley Opelka in the second round who he beat in 5 sets in the 2017 Aussie Open. If Goffin makes the semis Zverev should be ready to send him packing holding a 2-1 advantage.

KEY STATS:

Goffin holds a shocking 3-11 record against top 20 players in 2019. Over the past 52 weeks Goffin goes into the Indoor swing with a 5-5 record and a 7-5 record in ATP 500 events.

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Goffin ranked 16th overall, but only the 22nd ranked player on hardcourts. Goffin has a 18-14 record on the surface this year. 

Fabio Fognini

ATP Race to London Rank: 11th

Points: 2235

Next Tournament: Swiss Basel Indoors

Fognini made a mess of himself in Stockholm a week after making his debut in the rankings. A shocking 6-1 6-1 defeat to the journeyman Janko Tipsarevic was all she wrote in his first match of the tournament.

Fognini will need to step up a gear if he wants to stay in the conversation by the end of the Basel Indoors. In the first round he has drawn another dangerous Aussie Alexei Popyrin in what will be their first encounter. Popyrin has a strong serve and if Fognini plays like he did last week another first round exit will be on the cards. 

A quarter final against the Greek, Stefanos Tsitsipas will likely be the end for the Italian as Stefanos holds a 2-0 record in two straight forward affairs. 

KEY STATS:

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Fognini currently ranked as the 25th best player in the world on hard court which is slowly creeping up to his clay court ranking of 11.

Fognini has a 4-3 record in ATP 500 events this year. Coming into the indoor tournaments Fognini has a 3-3 record over the past 52 weeks and a 4-6 record against top 20 opponents.

<ad>

Kei Nishikori

ATP Race to London Rank: 12th

Points: 2180

Next Tournament: Paris Masters

Nishikori’s shot at a top eight finish has taken a tumble after sustaining an arm/elbow injury which has bothered him since the French Open. Nishikori has also withdrawn from Vienna and will now look to return at the Paris Masters.

In a big move Nishikori has also split with his long term coach saying “Its time for a new voice.”  after the nine year partnership the air sustained.

KEY STATS:

Nishikori holds a stunning 14-3 record in indoor events over the past 52 weeks. Against top 20 opponents Nishikori has a 2-4 record in 2019.

When getting a look at a second serve Nishikori is winning 54.1% of points, placing him fifth on the ATP tour.

STILL A SNEAKY CHANCE:

Gael Monfils

ATP Race To London Rank: 13th

Points: 2170

Diego Schwartzman

ATP Race To London Rank:14th  

Points: 1860

Did you enjoy this article? Leave a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.