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State of Origin: What NSW Need To Do To Win Game 2

They were called the worst Queensland Maroons side in State of Origin history in the build-up to Game 1. For many, it wasn't a case of whether or not the New South Wales Blues would win, but rather, by how much.

In hindsight, we should have known better. We should have known that Wayne Bennett would get the most out of what was a rather uninspiring 17 before kickoff. We should have known that the experience and cohesion of the Queensland halves would allow them to work through difficult periods better than those of New South Wales.

And boy were there some difficult periods...

Game 1 of the 2020 series won't be added to the list of classics in the Kayo archives. 

A lot of those on the field hadn't played in weeks and it showed in the quality early on.

That's where Bennett came in and Brad Fittler didn't.

Queensland appeared to make some minor adjustments at halftime, but nothing outrageous. They continued to hit the edges - an area they looked to be trying a little too hard to get to in the first half - but not before getting their hands dirty through the middle first. 

New South Wales, on the other hand, seemed happy with their 10-0 lead having not done a whole lot to earn it. Bland, drab, flat. The Blues never looked like the exciting team that activated discussions of a lengthy dynasty just 16 months ago. They did little more than go through the motions.

Despite a poor performance overall, the Blues had their moments. 

Enough to be confident of a quick turnaround in Game 2.

Edge Defence

Jack Wighton and Clint Gutherson have been in the firing line in the aftermath of Game 1.

Queensland targeted them early a little bit too enthusiastically and tried to go around New South Wales before doing the hard yards through the middle. Once Bennett got hold of his side at halftime, the plan started to pay dividends. Queensland worked the middle and eventually found their try-scoring opportunities out wide.

First, Kurt Capewell discarded Gutherson like a paper plate to send AJ Brimson over the line. A style much like the Melbourne Storm employed throughout the year, Queensland targeted the tram lines. Even with the try-scoring play threatening to break down and it not looking all that pretty, it ended how it was meant to: Capewell one-on-one with Gutherson.

Next came Wighton's miss on Dane Gagai - one of seven missed tackles by the Dally M Medal winner on the night.

Again it was Capewell taking a carry in the middle. With Luke Keary trying to get out to Jaydn Su'A early after Queensland made an effort to target him in defence, and with Boyd Cordner a step behind his half off the line, Ben Hunt makes a half break which gets his side on the front foot. Gagai is now one-on-one with his opposite man and has no trouble in casting Wighton aside before releasing Xavier Coates to score. 

The two tries don't look all that similar side-by-side, but both came about in a similar fashion. New South Wales ran the risk of putting two fullbacks into a position that is difficult to grasp defensively without experience. The risk didn't pay off in Game 1.

Assuming an improvement from Wighton and Gutherson for Game 2, Cordner's withdrawal from the side may also benefit New South Wales. He has been out of sorts defensively recently. Joseph Tapine stood him up twice in one run to score in Week 2 of the NRL finals while he was caught out in Coates' try in Game 1 and on two other separate occasions throughout the match. Cordner's leadership is irreplaceable, but Angus Crichton is offering a lot more on both sides of the ball at the moment. 

With a week to iron out the kinks in the centres and a quicker and more mobile forward on the left edge, we should see an improvement to the Blues defence out wide in Game 2.

Do more, Blues

We compared the two teams in the buildup and the Blues came out on top, as expected. However, it appeared as though that's all New South Wales thought they needed - to be better on paper. 

A 10-0 lead without being asked to throw much at the Maroons in attack gave the Blues a false sense of security. Damien Cook scored on a deflected grubber to break the deadlock after New South Wales opened the game defending their own line while Cleary and Keary managed to link up in a rare successful shift to put Josh Addo-Carr over in the corner after 20 minutes. Having spent much of the game on the backfoot, New South Wales did make it look easy when it all worked.

But they failed to work for it from there.

Ambushed in the second half and unsure of how to react once Queensland started to take over, New South Wales went into their shell. Simply waiting to finish the game ahead on the scoreboard by virtue of being the better team didn't work and key players couldn't wrestle back control of the game. Daniel Saifiti and the Blues pack failed to make their way up the field with almost 35 minutes passing in the second half before the Blues were tackled inside the Maroons 20-metre line. Encouragingly, Cody Walker featured in a right-side shift that ended with Addo-Carr over in the corner for his second. 

As most expected, the Blues backline lived up to the billing. But only after the forwards did their job to get the side into good ball areas.

Even now in the wake of one of the worst Origin defeats in recent memory, few would argue that the Blues don't carry the stronger 17 into Game 2. They need to show it this time. Lucky for Fittler, one set from Game 1 can act as the blueprint for dominance in Game 2.

The Blues Blueprint

There was undoubtedly an element of luck to Damien Cook's try to open the scoring.

Not only did his ricocheted grubber pop up perfectly into his hands, but it also looked well covered by the Queensland defence had it made it through the line as planned. However, the good teams create their own luck, and this try came on the end of an excellent 95-metre set that the Blues should be looking to emulate 30 times over in Game 2.

It starts with a strong kick-return by Clint Gutherson before Josh Addo-Carr and James Tedesco continue the roll up the field on the following two tackles. 

With a fast start to set the Blues have the Maroons on the back foot and don't allow them to recover. Luke Keary gets his head through the line to promote a quick play-the-ball for Damien Cook. With Felise Kaufusi still on the ground and only Dane Gagai at marker, Cook is able to engage Jake Friend at 'A' and use Daniel Saifiti to occupy Josh Papalii at 'B' for Jake Trbojevic to make another half break. 

Papalii is lagging behind the play now and doesn't get off his line which allows Nathan Cleary to turn it back into Tedesco for the easy metres. Cook can explore from the ruck off the quick play-the-ball and finds enough space to put the ball on his foot. While not as planned, the disjointed Queensland defence isn't prepared and a stroke of luck sees New South Wales take the lead despite spending much of the 15 minutes prior defending their own goal line.

It's close to the perfect set for the Blues. However, it somewhat plays into their lack of intent later in the game. This try came so easy and they played as though it was only a matter of time before they'd score another just as effortlessly.

Game 2 Crystal Ball

The Blues are once again heavy favourites in the build-up to Game 2. Like Game 1, the Stats Insider Model has them at over 70% to win in the head to head prediction.

The only true cause for significant concern is in the centres. While Wighton and Gutherson are both capable, neither provided viewers with the utmost confidence given their performances. 

While another lacklustre performance is a danger, Game 1 should act as a wakeup call. Assuming Fittler takes his team through a video session to show them the good things - he's been known to ignore video for much of his preparation - the Blues know exactly what is required to level the series. There is no reason this group can't emulate the set leading up to Cook's try often enough to build a considerable lead on Wednesday night. 

We all know better than to rule Queensland out of this one. Just as Bennett's aura begins to be questioned, he inspires a performance like that of Game 1 to remind everybody why he's one of the greatest coaches of all time. With the confidence a win provides the players and Bennett's ability to maximise it in each individual, the Maroons will be ready to take advantage of another flat Blues performance should they dish one up again.

But New South Wales have the better 17 and the blueprint for victory this time. 

The 2020 rugby league season looks set to end with an Origin decider.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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