Predicting Matchday 23 of the English Premier League

Last week, Liverpool extended their lead at the top to a massive 14-point margin, while Watford managed to climb out of the relegation zone thanks to their incredible run of form in the last month. 

The desperate-looking Norwich was smashed by Manchester United, while cross-town rivals Manchester City did something similar at Villa Park.

This week has some incredibly juicy matches lined up, headlined by 18-time league champions Liverpool FC hosting 20-time champions, Manchester United. The last time Liverpool lost at Anfield was against Crystal Palace, way back in April 2017. Things don’t look too optimistic for the Red Devils, but you never want to count them out, do you?

It’s going to be an eventful week, so let’s see what our Premier League model predicts. For the Premier League, Stats Insider's EPL model utilised a variety of data points and machine-learning processes to predict the most likely outcome for each match.

For all football value bets, view the value summary, or click the match widgets below to see the full match probabilities for each match.

Watford vs Tottenham Hotspur

Venue: Vicarage Road

Most Likely Predicted Score: Watford 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur (11.3%)

H2H Win Probability: Watford 31%, Tottenham Hotspur 41%, Draw 27%

VIEW: Full Watford vs Tottenham Hotspur Match Predictions

Norwich City vs Bournemouth

Venue: Carrow Road

Most Likely Predicted Score: Norwich City 1-1 Bournemouth (10.6%)

H2H Win Probability: Norwich City 44%, Bournemouth 29%, Draw 27%

VIEW: Full Norwich City vs Bournemouth Match Predictions

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Venue: The American Express Community Stadium

Most Likely Predicted Score: Brighton 2-1 Aston Villa (9.9%)

H2H Win Probability: Brighton 55%, Aston Villa 22%, Draw 23%

VIEW: Full Brighton vs Aston Villa Match Predictions

Southampton vs Wolves

Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium

Most Likely Predicted Score: Southampton 1-1 Wolves (11.7%)

H2H Win Probability: Southampton 40%, Wolves 33%, Draw 28%

VIEW: Full Southampton vs Wolves Match Predictions

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace

Venue: Etihad Stadium

Most Likely Predicted Score: Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace (13.5%)

H2H Win Probability: Man City 84%, Crystal Palace 5%, Draw 28%

VIEW: Full Manchester City vs Crystal Palace Match Predictions

Arsenal vs Sheffield Utd

Venue: Emirates Stadium

Most Likely Predicted Score: Arsenal 1-1 Sheffield Utd (11.7%)

H2H Win Probability: Arsenal 50%, Sheffield Utd 22%, Draw 28%

VIEW: Full Arsenal vs Sheffield Utd Match Predictions

West Ham vs Everton

Venue: London Stadium

Most Likely Predicted Score: West Ham 1-1 Everton (11.4%)

H2H Win Probability: West Ham 30%, Everton 43%, Draw 27%

VIEW: Full West Ham vs Everton Match Predictions

Newcastle vs Chelsea

Venue: St. James’ Park

Most Likely Predicted ScoreNewcastle 0-2 Chelsea (10.6%)

H2H Win Probability: Newcastle 18%, Chelsea 60%, Draw 22%

VIEW: Full Newcastle vs Chelsea Match Predictions

Burnley vs Leicester City

Venue: Turf Moor

Predicted Score: 1-1 (10.4%)

H2H Win Probability: Burnley 26%, Leicester 48%, Draw 25%

VIEW: Full Burnley vs Leicester City Match Predictions

Liverpool vs Manchester Utd

Venue: Anfield

Predicted Score: Liverpool 2-0 Manchester Utd (11.5%)

H2H Win Probability: Liverpool 66%, Man Utd 15%, Draw 19%

VIEW: Full Liverpool vs Manchester Utd Match Predictions

Stats Insider's EPL Schedule Difficulty attempts to forecast how easy (or difficult) a team's upcoming Premier League fixtures are. The opposition's team rating and home ground advantage are the main factors in grading the difficulty of the fixture.

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Nikhil Deshpande

Started supporting Manchester United for Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Chose Collingwood FC because my hairdresser convinced me to. Spreading the word that Charlie Austin and Ben Simmons are GOATs. Got dealt a good hand with sense of humor but had to sacrifice all my Fantasy sports skills in return. Don't regret it at all. Well... maybe just a little.

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