NRL Tipping Point R7 - A Round of Fire and Ice

What happens when the heated, emotionally charged atmosphere of ANZAC weekend meets the ice cold, data driven mind of Stats Insiders NRL model? 

Let’s find out shall we?

After 6 weeks of NRL Tipping under our belts one thing has emerged crystal clear, no one had been able to get close to the model so far in 2021. 

Not ex-presidents, current presidents, inept prime ministers nor Ronny ‘Chainsaw’ Foster – each and every week the SI Model is pumping out winning tips and winning edges, all for free, and all for you, the people.  

Having experienced a shortage in notable people willing to come up against the power of the data, I thought I’d roll up the sleeves and have a crack myself! 

That’s right, yours truly, a man thrice described as ‘way faster than he should be for how fat he is’ is throwing his hat in the ring to take down this upstart model.

If you have not been following along each week from home, the SI Model is currently sitting at 75% with the NRL tipping this season (36/48) after 5/8 last week, while in the green smiley count, it has nailed 12/17 after bagging 3/5 last week. 

Seriously good numbers! 

Four (4) green smileys this week, 3 of which feature in the first game (tonight) so let’s get stuck into the tips and edges shall we.

Panthers v Knights

Hedge: I’m going to take the Knights in an upset straight out of the gate, agreeing with the model uncovering the lack of love that the novacastrians are getting in the markets. Crichton is useless at the back for Penny and it could very much bite them, Ponga + that Knights pack can absolutely upset them here.

Model: Panthers

Green Smiley watch: The model has spied plenty of juice in the markets for this game, starting with the Total Markets where there is a 9% edge for the overs (40.5). Likewise at the Line where the Knights have a 9% edge at the +16.5pts. The third green smiley is a long shot, and one perhaps shouldered arms too for those who don’t bet the H2H smileys, but the Panthers are too fancied here in this market according to the model, creating an edge for the Knights given the models 10,000 simulations of this match. 

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_PEN_NEW #} 

Titans v Rabbitohs

Hedge: Expecting a response from a Gold Coast team after a horror loss is like, and forgive my crass analogy, but it is very much like expecting sh*t not to come out brown. It happens, but not very bloody often. With that being said, no Latrell Mitchell gives the Titans every reason to bounce back at home so I’m taking them in coming up against the model’s Bunnies.

Model: Rabbitohs

Green Smiley watch:

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_GLD_SOU #}

Eels v Broncos

Hedge: It brings me great personal joy to see the Broncos hobbled so, having had to watch them dominate from ’92 for 15 years whilst also having to tolerate an increasing number of my Northern NSW mates (and some Southern NSW ones!) wearing Broncos shirts yelling and carrying on like they were born in bloody Red Hill as Michael Hancock thrusted and writhed under the tackle like he was having an epileptic fit. I ask you, how is a bloke from Bega a Broncos fan? Honestly! 

I would love to see the Donkeys get flogged, again and again, and I am just intelligent enough to realise that this feeling impacts my tipping, yet not quite smart enough to care. Go Eels!

Model: Eels

Green Smiley watch: Huge double-figure edge in the Totals market for the Overs (41.5pts). Backing the Overs in Broncos and Eels games has been pretty effective so far this season so it makes sense that the model would love the Overs in a game featuring both sides. 

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_PAR_BRI #}

Sharks v Bulldogs

Hedge: Loved the Berries growing up, mainly due to Terry Lamb. Even he would be tipping the Sharks here though. Cronulla.

Model: Sharks

Green Smiley watch: 

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_CRO_CBY #}

Cowboys v Raiders

Hedge: The faders have been pumped by the Panthers and Eels in back to back weeks so I’d expect a big response here against a Cowboys team that was one loss to the Bulldogs away from complete club-wide implosion. Canberra by plenty!

Model: Raiders

Green Smiley watch: 

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_NQL_CAN #}

Tigers v Sea Eagles

Hedge: Tommy Turbo has breathed life into Manly but I’m going to stick my neck out here and take the Tigers who really should have beaten the Bunnies last week. Tigers.
Model: Sea Eagles

Green Smiley watch:

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_WST_MAN #}

Roosters v Dragons

Hedge: I’m going to take the Dragons in this game mainly because I just looked at the Roosters team and knew about 5 players in it. Not sure the chooks have the kicking game to expose Dufty, in fact it could well be the reverse. Dragons

Model: Roosters

Green Smiley watch:

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_SYD_SGI #}

Storm v Broncos

Hedge: Hate the Storm, mainly because they are cheats who never stopped prospering from being caught cheating. Luckily I’m totally over it, because it really is not healthy to hold onto these things. Go Warriors!

Model: Storm

Green Smiley watch: 

{# PRE-MATCH NRL_2021_07_MEL_WAR #}

I’d like to thank myself for putting in such a concise yet insightful effort. 

For those less inclined to listen to idiocy, be sure to make the Stats insider NRL Match Pages part of your pre-tipping and pre-punting routine.

The model runs every game 10,000 times and is constantly updating so don’t waste time listening to ‘experts’, harness the data and get amongst the amazing results so far this NRL season. 

Trust the data people and enjoy the footy!

Come join the Twitter party @Club20 for our most up-to-date bets


Cruelly denied sporting glory due to recurring shin splint complaints and an aversion to warm-up laps, Hedge now spends his days golfing, fishing the leaves out of the Club 20 pools and identifying value plays in PGA, AFL, AFLW and T20. All you really need to know about him is he's more than comfortable taking 3I off the tee on a Par 5, and more than capable of pulling driver off the deck second shot.

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