Let's Keep The Winning Going @ Club 20
The tide did indeed turn last week at Club 20 with a few big wins but it was so very close to being so much better with some big odds missed by a stroke or two.
A rare 1-2 punch landed for us in the opening round of the Euro last week with a 46-1 First Round Leader win and each-way (11.5-1) for Callum Hill, plus a good place hit for Caldwell at 20-1.
We missed by a whisker in the opening round of the PGA alternate event with Jon Pak needing a birdie on the 18th to land a big 35-1 FRL place bet. His birdie putt rolled by for a par, then Callum Hill who led for 63 holes, turned down the stretch then made a triple on the Par 4 10th.
He was unable to claw back for a win but still landed a good place bet for the Outright each-way at 9.50-1. Could easily have had another two solid 35-1 winners but we will move on pretty happy with a solid week of winnings.
So, we’ve got some money to play with, lets play!
PGA Tour – Wyndham Championship
The Tour travels to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina where there will be birdies in bunches at this relatively easy Par 70 that gets taken apart by the tour players every season.
Last two years have seen winning scores in the low twenty under par, so to contend here your guy needs three 66/67’s and a really hot fire round in the low 60’s.
We’ve got Bermuda greens, not a lot of trouble for the players, it will just be find a fairway on these par 4’s then fire at pins, then find the green in two on the two very gettable Par 5’s.
This is an event where the lesser lights can often shine pretty bright and this field is not particularly strong, so we’re going to pick a few guys deep down the betting board and hope they find the flatstick.
Not much weather to speak of, so lets get into the bets. Warning, more than a few roughies in here this week!
Three top 6 finishes in his last three starts means this guy is every bit as good as we thought he was when we backed him at crazy 100-1 odds at the Olympics. He landed a good 20-1 place bet then and expect him to be up around the money again this week, albeit at reduced odds. The books have finally realized he can play so were getting reduced odds but the field is pretty weak so it evens out. Mito will find the fairway then find the green, so he will get plenty of birdie looks. In the form of his life and a Top 2 will be good enough to secure a spot in the playoffs next week, something he will no doubt be keenly chasing.
Outright Each-Way @ 67-1 (1/4 T5)
First Round leader Each Way @ 67-1 (1/4 T5)
A Bermuda man, Wolff is very quietly finding his form again after completely breaking down earlier this season. He has been pretty vocal about playing golf now for the right reasons, and releasing some of the pressure he was putting on himself every time he teed it up. This course will perfectly suit a new, free Wolff, who will have irons into both these Par 5’s for a look at eagle. If he finds the driver like he did at Torrey for the US Open he will win this by 5 shots, because he can seriously putt when he gets rolling and there are no big names here to scare him into sloppiness down the stretch on Sunday. If he doesn’t have it, so be it, but if he does, he is at amazingly good odds for probably the best talent in this field.
Outright Each-Way @ 71-1 (1/4 T5)
First Round leader Each Way @ 56-1 (1/4 T5)
With three MC’s and a T50 from 5 starts here, Taylor’s form looks utter trash, but its his T8 in 2018 that gives me hope. Has made 8 cuts from last 9 events but more than anything this is a gut play. Taylor has the putting and approach play to spike, he just hasn’t spiked since his win at Pebble last year. Not many players at these odds have gained over 5 strokes on approach and over 4 strokes putting multiple times this season, he just hasn’t put them both together yet. I’m convinced it is coming so not missing out on increased odds in a weaker field. Top 5 will see him play the Northern Trust.
Outright Each-Way @ 251-1 (1/4 T5)
First Round leader Each Way @ 151-1 (1/4 T5)
Top 20 @ 10.00
Got a sponsors exemption into this field and we’re sticking with this kid until he pays us off, which is a matter of when not if. Pretty quietly made three of his first four cuts since getting status and has shown that if he can mitigate his need to chip which looks a relative weakness, he can peel off birdies in bunches (like he did at the Palmetto, birdieing 5 of the last 6 holes to comfortably make the weekend. Gained 4 strokes last week at lake Tahoe with the driver and gained over 5 strokes on approach a few starts back. Worth sticking with on limited sample size, particularly at these odds.
Outright Each-Way @ 300-1 (1/4 T5)
First Round leader Each Way @ 176-1 (1/4 T5)
Top 20 @ 11.00
Speaking of things to play for, this kid clutched up to Monday qualify for this event and needs a good finish to qualify straight to KFT finals. Knowing he needed to make the Wyndham, he shot a 7-under 64 on Monday which included stiffing long irons to 4, 6 and 8 feet in a round which included two eagles. He was pretty pumped about it in his post game media chat so the confidence is high and the mission is clear - T20 or better gets is the goal. Has a T12 at Mayakoba and T16 at 3M a few weeks ago so certainly has the game, he was a teammate of Hovland and Wolff at Oaklahoma State and has just as much talent. He knows he needs a T20 to walk straight into the KFT finals so expect him to hard charge at every flag at Sedgefield.
Outright Each-Way @ 151-1 (1/4 T5)
First Round leader Each Way @ 151-1 (1/4 T5)
Top 20 @ 10.00
I don’t usually bet the fat Rat anymore because, well because he has been shithouse for almost two seasons, but when asked about his form a few weeks back he said he felt really close which most golfers don't say unless its true, but i was still as shocked as anyone to see him gain over 6 strokes on the field at the 3M two weeks ago. Close indeed Rat. Those are career approach numbers for the Barn Rat. In typical fashion he paired his best ever iron week with his second worst putting week on record (-5.5 strokes). But he is back on Bermuda where he gains half a stroke on the field every round, has had two looks at Sedgefield before and is coming off his best iron week ever. Could be the last time ever but if not now, then when?
Outright Each-Way @ 400-1 (1/4 T5)
First Round leader Each Way @ 200-1 (1/4 T5)
Top 20 @ 13.00
European Tour – Cazoo Classic
The Heritage Course at the London Golf Club will host the final leg of the UK swing with Cazoo getting its name up in sponsors lights for the second week running.
Just a small 3-man card for this one, taking three relative roughies who all are capable of playing much better golf than their odds would suggest
Marcus Kinhult ran into the afternoon wave on the first day and never got into the event, a nice early exit from Scotland will have him primed for this event at huge odds. Pep Angles is a talent and not being respected at all in this pretty weak market and Gavin Green is someone ill continue to be sucked into at huge odds because if he finds his form of 2 years ago he will win this tournament.
These three will have the slightly tougher tee draw in regards to wind but it shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as last week and may in fact assist scoring on a few of the holes.
All three Outright and First Round Leader each-ways.
Kinhult Outright Each-Way @ 111-1 (1/4 T5)
Kinhult First Round leader Each Way @ 91-1 (1/4 T5)
Angles Outright Each-Way @ 3511 (1/4 T5)
Angles First Round leader Each Way @ 176-1 (1/4 T5)
Green Outright Each-Way @ 400-1 (1/4 T5)
Green First Round leader Each Way @ 200-1 (1/4 T5)
If you are tossing up between two golfers in your DFS teams tonight, check out the Stats Insider Player Matchup Tool here.
Lastly, speaking of DFS and due to a lack of golf im able to play during lockdown, I’ll be putting out a Player Guide to the Suns v Bombers game which is the match selected for the 300k (kinda)Live Final on Sunday.
Been a while since I dipped the toes into fantasy form but the occasion calls for it so whether you take any notice of it at all or deliberately select against it, it will be up on the Club 20 pages Friday afternoon along with the AFL Betting yarn.
Have a great weekend - enjoy!
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