Who is the best kick for goal at your AFL club?

Last week we launched our newest and most dynamic analytical tool for AFL: Shot Charting. The basic functionality of the tool lets us assess the accuracy of any AFL team or player from any given position and distance on the field. It also lets you filter for any individual round or combined time span since the start of the 2018 season.

As footy fans, we’ve long discussed and debated over which player in the AFL is the best kick for goal.

Whether it’s Tom Hawkins vs Jeremy Cameron, or Jack Darling vs Josh Kennedy; teammates or rivals; knowing who the best kick is, is always on everyone’s mind.

The easiest way to evaluate a player’s kicking ability is to check the overall shot accuracy of that player. But that doesn’t paint the complete picture. 

That’s where the Stats Insider ‘Expected Score vs Actual Score' comes into play.

'Actual score' is the sum of the points of the player's actual goals and behinds. The ‘expected score’ formula works by taking the league average accuracy of that shot type, from that position, and converts it into an expected score (expected goals+behinds=expected score).

Using this method, we get a better understanding of whether the player is below par, above, or simply average when kicking for goal.

So, here’s the list for the best kicks for goal at each team for the 2019 season, broken down into three major categories:

1. General Play

2. Set Shots

3. Stats Insider 'Expected Points vs Actual Points'

Adelaide Crows

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Hugh Greenwood
ADE
6
12
50.0%
Eddie Betts
ADE
20
41
48.8%
Josh Jenkins
ADE
8
17
47.1%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Lachlan Murphy
ADE
8
11
72.7%
Taylor Walker
ADE
22
36
61.1%
Eddie Betts
ADE
12
20
60.0%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Taylor Walker
ADE
151.9
187.0
23.1%
Lachlan Murphy
ADE
88.6
106.0
19.6%
Paul Seedsman
ADE
28.9
33.0
14.3%


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Brisbane Lions

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Lincoln McCarthy
BL
8
12
66.7%
Charlie Cameron
BL
18
33
54.5%
Mitch Robinson
BL
6
11
54.5%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Lincoln McCarthy
BL
9
15
60.0%
Dayne Zorko
BL
6
10
60.0%
Eric Hipwood
BL
23
42
54.8%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Mitch Robinson
BL
56.1
75.0
33.7%
Lincoln McCarthy
BL
93.3
108.0
15.8%
Lachie Neale
BL
37.4
42.0
12.4%

*Data missing from one game

Carlton

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Mitch McGovern
CAR
6
10
60.0%
Jack Silvagni
CAR
8
14
57.1%
Charlie Curnow
CAR
11
21
52.4%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Mitch McGovern
CAR
11
15
73.3%
Charlie Curnow
CAR
7
11
63.6%
Levi Casboult
CAR
9
16
56.3%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Marc Murphy
CAR
30.8
44.0
43.0%
David Cuningham
CAR
36.4
46.0
26.5%
Mitch McGovern
CAR
91.3
109.0
19.4%

Collingwood Magpies

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jordan de Goey
COL
23
37
62.2%
Tom Phillips
COL
7
14
50.0%
Brody Mihocek
COL
9
20
45.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Mason Cox
COL
14
23
60.9%
Ben Reid
COL
7
14
50.0%
Jamie Elliott
COL
5
10
50.0%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Josh Thomas
COL
68.4
81.0
18.4%
Will Hoskin-Elliott
COL
60.0
69.0
15.1%
Adam Treloar
COL
44.9
51.0
13.5%

Essendon

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
ESS
14
17
82.35%
Kyle Langford
ESS
6
11
54.55%
Jake Stringer
ESS
13
26
50.00%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Orazio Fantasia
ESS
8
10
80.0%
Mitch Brown
ESS
7
11
63.6%
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
ESS
11
18
61.1%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
ESS
110.3
157.0
42.4%
Andrew McGrath
ESS
26.9
37.0
37.3%
David Zaharakis
ESS
32.3
37.0
14.5%


Fremantle Dockers

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Cam McCarthy
FRE
6
13
46.15%
Michael Walters
FRE
10
22
45.45%
Brandon Matera
FRE
12
33
36.36%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Michael Walters
FRE
21
30
70.0%
Cam McCarthy
FRE
10
15
66.7%
Rory Lobb
FRE
9
15
60.0%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
David Mundy
FRE
26.7
33.0
23.5%
Cam McCarthy
FRE
82.3
101.0
22.7%
Michael Walters
FRE
167.5
196.0
17.0%

Gold Coast Suns

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Darcy Macpherson
GCS
9
17
52.94%
Alex Sexton
GCS
19
45
42.22%
David Swallow
GCS
5
12
41.67%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Anthony Miles
GCS
6
10
60.0%
Alex Sexton
GCS
9
18
50.0%
Peter Wright
GCS
11
24
45.8%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual
Points
Difference
Ben Ainsworth
GCS
26.2
40.0
52.7%
Nick Holman
GCS
39.1
47.0
20.3%
Peter Wright
GCS
95.8
113.0
18.0%

Geelong Cats

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Mitch Duncan
GEE
10
11
90.91%
Gryan Miers
GEE
15
22
68.18%
Gary Ablett
GEE
19
33
57.58%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Gary Rohan
GEE
16
22
72.7%
Tom Hawkins
GEE
34
49
69.4%
Gary Ablett
GEE
9
14
64.3%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Mitch Duncan
GEE
60.8
96.0
58.0%
Gryan Miers
GEE
84.6
120.0
41.8%
Gary Ablett
GEE
127.4
180.0
41.3%


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GWS Giants

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Harry Himmelberg
GWS
11
16
68.75%
Jeremy Finlayson
GWS
14
22
63.64%
Toby Greene
GWS
7
13
53.85%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Harry Himmelberg
GWS
17
23
73.9%
Toby Greene
GWS
10
15
66.7%
Jeremy Finlayson
GWS
14
24
58.3%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Daniel Lloyd
GWS
49.2
64.0
30.1%
Lachie Whitfield
GWS
37.9
46.0
21.3%
Harry Himmelberg
GWS
149.4
178.0
19.1%

Hawthorn Hawks

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Luke Breust
HAW
13
18
72.2%
Ricky Henderson
HAW
6
10
60.0%
Paul Puopolo
HAW
6
12
50.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Luke Breust
HAW
15
28
53.6%
Mitchell Lewis
HAW
9
18
50.0%
Jonathon Ceglar
HAW
5
11
45.5%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected
Points
Actual
Points
Difference
Ben McEvoy
HAW
33.7
50.0
48.4%
Ricky Henderson
HAW
44.0
63.0
43.1%
Chad Wingard
HAW
49.3
60.0
21.8%

Melbourne

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jay Lockhart
MEL
6
11
54.5%
Christian Petracca
MEL
9
18
50.0%
Nathan Jones
MEL
5
10
50.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jayden Hunt
MEL
14
24
58.3%
Sam Weideman
MEL
10
19
52.6%
Tom McDonald
MEL
15
29
51.7%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected
points
Actual Points
Difference
Jay Lockhart
MEL
45.6
57
24.89%
Nathan Jones
MEL
38.0
46
20.94%
Jayden Hunt
MEL
122.4
124
1.33%

North Melbourne

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jack Ziebell
NM
8
15
53.3%
Cameron Zurhaar
NM
7
16
43.8%
Ben Brown
NM
6
15
40.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Cameron Zurhaar
NM
14
17
82.4%
Nick Larkey
NM
16
20
80.0%
Tarryn Thomas
NM
9
14
64.3%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual 
Points
Difference
Cameron Zurhaar
NM
108.6
134
23.37%
Nick Larkey
NM
86.9
106
21.97%
Kayne Turner
NM
64.4
69
7.20%

*Data missing from one game.

Port Adelaide

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Zak Butters
PA
6
10
60.0%
Connor Rozee
PA
10
21
47.6%
Brad Ebert
PA
7
15
46.7%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Paddy Ryder
PA
10
16
62.5%
Sam Gray
PA
12
20
60.0%
Connor Rozee
PA
10
19
52.6%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Kane Farrell
PA
53.4
69
29.33%
Steven Motlop
PA
40.4
47
16.36%
Paddy Ryder
PA
69.0
78
13.04%

Richmond Tigers

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Shai Bolton
RIC
7
10
70.0%
Tom J. Lynch
RIC
9
13
69.2%
Kane Lambert
RIC
6
12
50.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Tom J. Lynch
RIC
28
50
56.0%
Jason Castagna
RIC
12
25
48.0%
Daniel Rioli
RIC
6
13
46.2%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Brandon Ellis
RIC
30.9
45
45.63%
Sydney Stack
RIC
43.6
58
32.92%
Jack Higgins
RIC
48.6
57
17.30%

St Kilda

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jade Gresham
STK
12
20
60.0%
Tim Membrey
STK
6
11
54.5%
Matthew Parker
STK
6
16
37.5%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Josh Bruce
STK
20
31
64.5%
Tim Membrey
STK
22
36
61.1%
Matthew Parker
STK
8
15
53.3%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual
Points
Difference
Rowan Marshall
STK
34.1
44
29.14%
Nick Hind
STK
35.8
46
28.45%
Tim Membrey
STK
165.8
180
8.56%

Sydney Swans

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Tom Papley
SYD
14
34
41.2%
Lance Franklin
SYD
7
17
41.2%
Will Hayward
SYD
5
14
35.7%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Isaac Heeney
SYD
14
18
77.8%
Sam Reid
SYD
19
29
65.5%
Nick Blakey
SYD
11
17
64.7%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Jordan Dawson
SYD
42.0
55
30.91%
Oliver Florent
SYD
30.7
39
26.85%
Sam Reid
SYD
113.4
141
24.32%


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Western Bulldogs

GENERAL PLAY



Player
TeamGoalsShotsShot accuracy (%)
Tory DicksonWB71258.3%
Sam LloydWB102441.7%
Ed RichardsWB41040.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
TeamGoalsShotsShot accuracy (%)
Josh SchacheWB81361.5%
Sam LloydWB173154.8%
Aaron NaughtonWB204050.0%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
TeamExpected pointsActual PointsDifference
Mitch WallisWB36.64728.32%
Josh SchacheWB65.87717.06%
Sam LloydWB174.31824.44%

West Coast Eagles

GENERAL PLAY




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jack Darling
WCE
14
22
63.6%
Jamie Cripps
WCE
16
28
57.1%
Dom Sheed
WCE
8
16
50.0%

SET SHOTS




Player
Team
Goals
Shots
Shot accuracy (%)
Jamie Cripps
WCE
8
11
72.7%
Jack Darling
WCE
25
41
61.0%
Liam Ryan
WCE
12
21
57.1%

EXPECTED SCORE




Player
Team
Expected points
Actual Points
Difference
Jarrod Cameron
WCE
40.5
62
53.11%
Jamie Cripps
WCE
115.0
153
33.09%
Dom Sheed
WCE
69.9
86
23.09%


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Nikhil Deshpande

Started supporting Manchester United for Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Chose Collingwood FC because my hairdresser convinced me to. Spreading the word that Charlie Austin and Ben Simmons are GOATs. Got dealt a good hand with sense of humor but had to sacrifice all my Fantasy sports skills in return. Don't regret it at all. Well... maybe just a little.

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