Who is the best kick for goal at your AFL club?

Last updated: Aug 7, 2019, 2:43AM | Published: Jul 19, 2019, 7:02AM

Last week we launched our newest and most dynamic analytical tool for AFL: Shot Charting. The basic functionality of the tool lets us assess the accuracy of any AFL team or player from any given position and distance on the field. It also lets you filter for any individual round or combined time span since the start of the 2018 season.

As footy fans, we’ve long discussed and debated over which player in the AFL is the best kick for goal.

Whether it’s Tom Hawkins vs Jeremy Cameron, or Jack Darling vs Josh Kennedy; teammates or rivals; knowing who the best kick is, is always on everyone’s mind.

The easiest way to evaluate a player’s kicking ability is to check the overall shot accuracy of that player. But that doesn’t paint the complete picture.

That’s where the Stats Insider ‘Expected Score vs Actual Score' comes into play.

'Actual score' is the sum of the points of the player's actual goals and behinds. The ‘expected score’ formula works by taking the league average accuracy of that shot type, from that position, and converts it into an expected score (expected goals+behinds=expected score).

Using this method, we get a better understanding of whether the player is below par, above, or simply average when kicking for goal.

So, here’s the list for the best kicks for goal at each team for the 2019 season, broken down into three major categories:

1. General Play

2. Set Shots

3. Stats Insider 'Expected Points vs Actual Points'

Adelaide Crows

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Hugh Greenwood	ADE	6	12	50.0%
Eddie Betts	ADE	20	41	48.8%
Josh Jenkins	ADE	8	17	47.1%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Lachlan Murphy	ADE	8	11	72.7%
Taylor Walker	ADE	22	36	61.1%
Eddie Betts	ADE	12	20	60.0%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Taylor Walker	ADE	151.9	187.0	23.1%
Lachlan Murphy	ADE	88.6	106.0	19.6%
Paul Seedsman	ADE	28.9	33.0	14.3%

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Brisbane Lions

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	8	12	66.7%
Charlie Cameron	BL	18	33	54.5%
Mitch Robinson	BL	6	11	54.5%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	9	15	60.0%
Dayne Zorko	BL	6	10	60.0%
Eric Hipwood	BL	23	42	54.8%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Mitch Robinson	BL	56.1	75.0	33.7%
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	93.3	108.0	15.8%
Lachie Neale	BL	37.4	42.0	12.4%

*Data missing from one game

Carlton

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Mitch McGovern	CAR	6	10	60.0%
Jack Silvagni	CAR	8	14	57.1%
Charlie Curnow	CAR	11	21	52.4%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Mitch McGovern	CAR	11	15	73.3%
Charlie Curnow	CAR	7	11	63.6%
Levi Casboult	CAR	9	16	56.3%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Marc Murphy	CAR	30.8	44.0	43.0%
David Cuningham	CAR	36.4	46.0	26.5%
Mitch McGovern	CAR	91.3	109.0	19.4%

Collingwood Magpies

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jordan de Goey	COL	23	37	62.2%
Tom Phillips	COL	7	14	50.0%
Brody Mihocek	COL	9	20	45.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Mason Cox	COL	14	23	60.9%
Ben Reid	COL	7	14	50.0%
Jamie Elliott	COL	5	10	50.0%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Josh Thomas	COL	68.4	81.0	18.4%
Will Hoskin-Elliott	COL	60.0	69.0	15.1%
Adam Treloar	COL	44.9	51.0	13.5%

Essendon

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	14	17	82.35%
Kyle Langford	ESS	6	11	54.55%
Jake Stringer	ESS	13	26	50.00%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Orazio Fantasia	ESS	8	10	80.0%
Mitch Brown	ESS	7	11	63.6%
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	11	18	61.1%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	110.3	157.0	42.4%
Andrew McGrath	ESS	26.9	37.0	37.3%
David Zaharakis	ESS	32.3	37.0	14.5%

Fremantle Dockers

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Cam McCarthy	FRE	6	13	46.15%
Michael Walters	FRE	10	22	45.45%
Brandon Matera	FRE	12	33	36.36%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Michael Walters	FRE	21	30	70.0%
Cam McCarthy	FRE	10	15	66.7%
Rory Lobb	FRE	9	15	60.0%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
David Mundy	FRE	26.7	33.0	23.5%
Cam McCarthy	FRE	82.3	101.0	22.7%
Michael Walters	FRE	167.5	196.0	17.0%

Gold Coast Suns

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Darcy Macpherson	GCS	9	17	52.94%
Alex Sexton	GCS	19	45	42.22%
David Swallow	GCS	5	12	41.67%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Anthony Miles	GCS	6	10	60.0%
Alex Sexton	GCS	9	18	50.0%
Peter Wright	GCS	11	24	45.8%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Ben Ainsworth	GCS	26.2	40.0	52.7%
Nick Holman	GCS	39.1	47.0	20.3%
Peter Wright	GCS	95.8	113.0	18.0%

Geelong Cats

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Mitch Duncan	GEE	10	11	90.91%
Gryan Miers	GEE	15	22	68.18%
Gary Ablett	GEE	19	33	57.58%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Gary Rohan	GEE	16	22	72.7%
Tom Hawkins	GEE	34	49	69.4%
Gary Ablett	GEE	9	14	64.3%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Mitch Duncan	GEE	60.8	96.0	58.0%
Gryan Miers	GEE	84.6	120.0	41.8%
Gary Ablett	GEE	127.4	180.0	41.3%

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GWS Giants

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	11	16	68.75%
Jeremy Finlayson	GWS	14	22	63.64%
Toby Greene	GWS	7	13	53.85%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	17	23	73.9%
Toby Greene	GWS	10	15	66.7%
Jeremy Finlayson	GWS	14	24	58.3%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Daniel Lloyd	GWS	49.2	64.0	30.1%
Lachie Whitfield	GWS	37.9	46.0	21.3%
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	149.4	178.0	19.1%

Hawthorn Hawks

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Luke Breust	HAW	13	18	72.2%
Ricky Henderson	HAW	6	10	60.0%
Paul Puopolo	HAW	6	12	50.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Luke Breust	HAW	15	28	53.6%
Mitchell Lewis	HAW	9	18	50.0%
Jonathon Ceglar	HAW	5	11	45.5%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected Points	Actual Points	Difference
Ben McEvoy	HAW	33.7	50.0	48.4%
Ricky Henderson	HAW	44.0	63.0	43.1%
Chad Wingard	HAW	49.3	60.0	21.8%

Melbourne

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jay Lockhart	MEL	6	11	54.5%
Christian Petracca	MEL	9	18	50.0%
Nathan Jones	MEL	5	10	50.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jayden Hunt	MEL	14	24	58.3%
Sam Weideman	MEL	10	19	52.6%
Tom McDonald	MEL	15	29	51.7%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Jay Lockhart	MEL	45.6	57	24.89%
Nathan Jones	MEL	38.0	46	20.94%
Jayden Hunt	MEL	122.4	124	1.33%

North Melbourne

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jack Ziebell	NM	8	15	53.3%
Cameron Zurhaar	NM	7	16	43.8%
Ben Brown	NM	6	15	40.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Cameron Zurhaar	NM	14	17	82.4%
Nick Larkey	NM	16	20	80.0%
Tarryn Thomas	NM	9	14	64.3%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Cameron Zurhaar	NM	108.6	134	23.37%
Nick Larkey	NM	86.9	106	21.97%
Kayne Turner	NM	64.4	69	7.20%

*Data missing from one game.

Port Adelaide

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Zak Butters	PA	6	10	60.0%
Connor Rozee	PA	10	21	47.6%
Brad Ebert	PA	7	15	46.7%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Paddy Ryder	PA	10	16	62.5%
Sam Gray	PA	12	20	60.0%
Connor Rozee	PA	10	19	52.6%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Kane Farrell	PA	53.4	69	29.33%
Steven Motlop	PA	40.4	47	16.36%
Paddy Ryder	PA	69.0	78	13.04%

Richmond Tigers

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Shai Bolton	RIC	7	10	70.0%
Tom J. Lynch	RIC	9	13	69.2%
Kane Lambert	RIC	6	12	50.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Tom J. Lynch	RIC	28	50	56.0%
Jason Castagna	RIC	12	25	48.0%
Daniel Rioli	RIC	6	13	46.2%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Brandon Ellis	RIC	30.9	45	45.63%
Sydney Stack	RIC	43.6	58	32.92%
Jack Higgins	RIC	48.6	57	17.30%

St Kilda

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jade Gresham	STK	12	20	60.0%
Tim Membrey	STK	6	11	54.5%
Matthew Parker	STK	6	16	37.5%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Josh Bruce	STK	20	31	64.5%
Tim Membrey	STK	22	36	61.1%
Matthew Parker	STK	8	15	53.3%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Rowan Marshall	STK	34.1	44	29.14%
Nick Hind	STK	35.8	46	28.45%
Tim Membrey	STK	165.8	180	8.56%

Sydney Swans

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Tom Papley	SYD	14	34	41.2%
Lance Franklin	SYD	7	17	41.2%
Will Hayward	SYD	5	14	35.7%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Isaac Heeney	SYD	14	18	77.8%
Sam Reid	SYD	19	29	65.5%
Nick Blakey	SYD	11	17	64.7%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Jordan Dawson	SYD	42.0	55	30.91%
Oliver Florent	SYD	30.7	39	26.85%
Sam Reid	SYD	113.4	141	24.32%

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Western Bulldogs

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Tory Dickson	WB	7	12	58.3%
Sam Lloyd	WB	10	24	41.7%
Ed Richards	WB	4	10	40.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Josh Schache	WB	8	13	61.5%
Sam Lloyd	WB	17	31	54.8%
Aaron Naughton	WB	20	40	50.0%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Mitch Wallis	WB	36.6	47	28.32%
Josh Schache	WB	65.8	77	17.06%
Sam Lloyd	WB	174.3	182	4.44%

West Coast Eagles

GENERAL PLAY
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jack Darling	WCE	14	22	63.6%
Jamie Cripps	WCE	16	28	57.1%
Dom Sheed	WCE	8	16	50.0%
SET SHOTS
Player	Team	Goals	Shots	Shot accuracy (%)
Jamie Cripps	WCE	8	11	72.7%
Jack Darling	WCE	25	41	61.0%
Liam Ryan	WCE	12	21	57.1%
EXPECTED SCORE
Player	Team	Expected points	Actual Points	Difference
Jarrod Cameron	WCE	40.5	62	53.11%
Jamie Cripps	WCE	115.0	153	33.09%
Dom Sheed	WCE	69.9	86	23.09%

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Nikhil Deshpande

Started supporting Manchester United for Ruud Van Nistelrooy. Chose Collingwood FC because my hairdresser convinced me to. Spreading the word that Charlie Austin and Ben Simmons are GOATs. Got dealt a good hand with sense of humor but had to sacrifice all my Fantasy sports skills in return. Don't regret it at all. Well... maybe just a little.