A-League Preview: Week 22

Brisbane and Western Sydney let us down last week but the long-term profit continues as the A-League model picks out the few matches that manage to produce under 2.5 total goals. Whose turn is it this week?  

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our A-League match predictions plus access to more soccer content.

This week's free play is...

Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners

When: Sat 16 March 5:35pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

It takes a brave man at the moment to predict that this Central Coast Mariners rabble could concede fewer than three goals in a game at the moment - let alone back the Under 2.5 market in any game involving them. Not least when they’re taking on their fierce F3 derby rivals, who are still clinging onto hope of another A-League Finals appearance, and who cannot afford to drop points against the league strugglers. 

Fortunately, the Stats Insider model is fearless in its predictions (no opinion, no emotion, only data), and has produced plenty of surprises in our subscribers’ favour throughout the 2018/19 A-League season. Perhaps the model also remembers that the Mariners held the Jets to a 1-0 win in Newcastle only six weeks ago, and were roughly done by to not hold on for a point. 

Former Matildas boss, Alen Stajcic, has been thrown into the deep end here, but he built up some solid defensive units in charge of Sydney FC's womens team and the national side, and got his girls believing. And, how often do we see teams immediately bounce back under caretaker management? 

Newcastle lose some firepower to the Olyroos, including Johnny Koutroumbis and Joey Champness. It’s something they can ill afford, with an 'Expected Goals For' difference of -8.35 so far this season (second worst in the league). 

F3 derbies in Newcastle average fewer than two goals per game, while just 30% of Newcastle home games and 45% of Central Coast away matches this season have climbed over 2.5 total goals. 

Whereas the market weighs heavily in favour of this match seeing three or more goals scored (see TAB reference below), it’s near a 50/50 possibility according to the 10,000 simulations produced by the Stats Insider model. 

That makes for a resounding 14% edge with an orange smiley bet!

To discover all value available for Week 22 of the A-League, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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Aaron Murphy

Armchair critic in all sports that don't involve tackle counts. Unashamedly biased towards Victorians. Stands up because he loves the darts. Wisden Almanacks are his idea of a good book. If he's not playing sport, watching sport, or talking sport, he's thinking about sport. Sport.

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