Footy Forensics: Crows v Magpies

The last time the Magpies beat the Crows, Disney’s Frozen was playing in cinemas and was driving parents (that were silly enough to buy the soundtrack) completely insane.

Half a decade later and Collingwood are hard to go past at the $5 H2H price this Friday.

Stats Insider agrees.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run, SI predicts Collingwood to prevails 28% of games, making their $5 H2H price the sharp value bet in this clash.

Before we dive into the other markets let’s tackle some intangibles first;

• In's and Out's: Murphy comes out and Fogarty goes in for the Crows but it’s the big loss of Taylor Adams for the Pies that saw their price drift from 4.9 to 5 post-teams. De-Goey comes in to replace him.
• Collingwood seldom plays better when there is no pressure on and this game is one of those games where very few, lest of all the bookies, expect them to get with six goals of last year’s grand finalists on their home deck.
• Weather-wise the BOM has forecast light showers and a possible thunderstorm to hit Adelaide which will inhibit Adelaide’s link play through Lynch and, I think, bring the Magpies right up to a 50/50 chance of winning it.
• The Crows got run down by Essendon (who have stunk it up since), rolled over a toothless Tigers team and then soundly beaten St Kilda – not the strongest form line to take on what will be a desperate Magpies outfit.

Now that we've covered the variables, let's look at what Stats Insider is saying.

Of the 10,000 games simulated by the SI model, the Crows are predicted to win 72% which makes the Pies $5 H2H price the value play.

But the Crows are tough to beat at home so whilst I do agree with the value about for the Pies (especially if it's wet), I'm moving onto the Line to find some better value.

The Magpies are holding that generous 34.5pt line 64% of the time according to SI and I can't help but agree here - Collingwood will have gone to school on what Essendon did to the Crows in R1 and will seek to turn this into a scrap, not a shootout.

Which brings us to the Total Points Market.

Despite the low Over/Under line of 169.5pts (particularly for a Pies v Crows game), SI is predicting just 162pts for the match.

If the rain doesn't arrive as forecast I can't see the Total Points staying under that 170 mark so I am steering clear of this market given the weather variable.

So there you have it, SI's Punting Predictions are above and as you can see the Magpies and Unders is the play.

Crows are coming off a soft win and I expect that the Magpies will bring an intensity and hunger for the contest that the markets are not really factoring in so I was anticipating a close game even before this talk of rain.

In this freaky Friday the 13th fixture, I'm taking the Magpies with the line as my best bet and just having a smaller nibble at a Pies upset.