AFL 2020: Can Anyone From The Stumbling Pack Make The Finals?

Aug 13, 2020, 3:36AM

There may be one part of this strange, desperate 2020 season that won't be subject to suspense or uncertainty.

Already, the final eight looks to be more or less set.

Port Adelaide and Brisbane are not going anywhere. Neither are the frequently doubted Cats, who are bizarrely almost a kind of punch-line now - a poster boy for underwhelming and regular brilliance.

The Eagles are surging and the Tigers, despite their hiccup against Port Adelaide, should have too many winnable games to falter.

Collingwood loomed as the potential catastrophe team - with an injury list that started off as cruel and is now inching towards comical. Jeremy Howe, Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar - perhaps four of Collingwood's five best players - are all down, and the Pies could have easily lost to both Sydney and Adelaide in the past week. That they conjured wins in both, though, should be enough to position themselves for the run home as they get stars back.

In a season as absurd as this one, though, there is surely heightened potential for a fantastic collapse. GWS might have had such a collapse in them, but they've weathered the most difficult part of their draw and will likely be favoured in every game they play from here.

One of those games will be against the Saints - who a few days ago were snugly inside the eight and even loosely eyeing off the top four. But the disastrous loss to Geelong exposed some shortcomings that were hinted at in the thrilling win over Gold Coast. St. Kilda couldn't get their hands on the ball against the Cats and were completely powerless for stretches against the Suns too.

The Saints are a re-invented side - once diabolically sloppy, now pristine, efficient movers of the ball. But they lack superstar talent or a frightening midfield, and they've already played six of the bottom seven - the one 'easy one' they have left will be against the dire Hawks, who will presumably not still be so dire when they play St. Kilda.

The best thing that St. Kilda, GWS, Collingwood and the rest on the incumbent eight have going for them is that the chasing pack is more like a confused, sauntering pack.

The Bombers lead it now, after several key moments at the death last night kept their season vaguely alive. Had the Dons held onto their 5-goal lead against GWS, they would be in the eight now with a game in hand. That loss may end up being the decisive result for this Essendon team that is inspiring with its resilience and endeavour and completely uninspiring with its spectacles. Essendon games have become these sprawling, agonising, slow-burn struggles, defined by the Bombers' tremendous back six and broken front six.

Essendon's remaining draw is brutal - still needing to play five of the top six, as well as the Demons. The Suns likely blew their best chance to make their move in the dying minutes of the Essendon draw, and the bottom six is too far back.

Games decided by 6 pts or fewer in 2020:

Essendon 6
Carlton 4
Gold Coast 3
Melbourne 3
St Kilda 3
Adelaide 2
Collingwood 2
Fremantle 2
Geelong 2
GWS 2
North Melbourne 2
Sydney 2
Brisbane Lions 1
Hawthorn 1
Port Adelaide 1
Richmond 1
Western Bulldogs 1
West Coast 0
— Ronny Lerner (@RonnyLerner) August 13, 2020

The Bulldogs are a talented mess, with the mess overwhelming the talent of late. A team with as many good players as the Bulldogs should not be losing four shortened games by 39+ already this season. Those losses have tortured the Bulldogs percentage into something unwieldy, putting them effectively twogames out of the eight.

A different talented mess might have the best chance of anyone at breaking into the finals.

The Demons are both confounding and completely predictable. They’re a very knowable team, who can win or lose against any team on a given day. They’re fourth in the league for inside-50 differential, second in contested possession differential, and fourth for metres gained differential. They have a percentage of 109.9. These are all marks of a finals team, but the Demons’ ranking of 14^th in intercepts differential speaks to the underlying, probably insurmountable problem they have: they completely butcher the ball, in a way that often renders them uncompetitive against the best teams in the league.

Melbourne are 0-5 against teams in the eight and 5-0 against teams out of the eight. Their power around the ball overwhelms the worst, but their infatuation with turnovers crushes them against the best.

Exactly how they go against the teams that hover in between the best and the worst – St. Kilda, Essendon, the Bulldogs – will be found out down the stretch.

The Demons have games to come against the three teams they’re most likely to catch – Collingwood, GWS and St. Kilda. Beginning Saturday against a wounded Collingwood, Melbourne’s fate will be in their own hands, and on their wayward feet.

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Jay Croucher

Based in Denver, Colorado, Jay splits time between worshiping Nikola Jokic and waking up at 3am to hazily watch AFL games. He has been writing about AFL, NBA and other US sports since 2014, and has suckered himself into thinking Port Adelaide was the real deal each year since.