2018 World Cup Team Profiles: Group D

In the fourth edition of our World Cup Team Profiles, Group D's Group of Death gets its turn. Can Lionel Messi & Argentina meet their destiny at last? Can Iceland surprise the world once again? Will Croatia's golden generation deliver on their last chance together or will Nigeria spoil the party? We go through it all here.

Want to hear more about these groups? Check out our Betting on the World Cup Podcast! You can listen to Stats Insider staff go in deep on each group. Here's their Group C & D Preview.

Average Group Outcome (According to Stats Insider Models):
Argentina
Croatia
Iceland
Nigeria

ARGENTINA

Average Finishing Place In Group: 1st
Odds to Qualify from Group (Percentage Chance): $1.20 (83.3%)
Odds to Win Group (Percentage Chance): $1.73 (57.8%)
Odds to Finish Bottom of Group (Percentage Chance): $21.90 (4.6%)
Odds to Win World Cup: $13.70 (7.3%)

Any team with Lionel Messi always has a chance of glory, and Argentina’s golden generation of players will go into Russia 2018 with their last chance at International success before retirement and decline come calling. Jorge Sampaoli’s men had an almost disastrous qualifying campaign and will need to perform a lot better if they want to fulfil what they believe is their destiny.

It took a Messi hat-trick in their final qualifier to get them through, but their depth and quality still make them a threat to win it all. Sergio Romero, Javier Mascherano and Nicolas Otamendi provide a sturdy back line, with Lucas Biglia anchoring the midfield.

In attack is where the Argentine’s should be feared most. Sergio Agüero, Paulo Dybala, Messi, Gonzalo Higuaín and Angel Di Maria provide immense firepower, but Sampaoli is yet to find the right combination to unleash their true potential. He’s running out of time to figure it out - but that doesn’t mean he won’t.

Keep your eye on: Messi, Messi, Messi. He has been thwarted time and again in search of International success, but is Russia where he fulfils the missing piece of his career’s jigsaw puzzle? Quite simply nothing less than his best will do, and Argentina for all their talent still rely on him as heavily as any nation does their star man.

ICELAND

Average Finishing Place In Group: 3rd
Odds to Qualify from Group (Percentage Chance): $3.70 (26.8%)
Odds to Win Group (Percentage Chance): $12.50 (8.0%)
Odds to Finish Bottom of Group (Percentage Chance): $2.40 (41.6%)
Odds to Win World Cup: $720 (0.1%)

The most underdog of all underdogs heading into Russia 2018, Iceland will carry the hopes of 330,000 this summer in their first ever World Cup. They overcame a difficult draw to qualify by winning their group ahead of Croatia, which shouldn’t be forgotten. Heimir Hallgrimsson did a superb job after the departure of Lars Lagerback and has added an extra dimension of tactical flexibility to the team he inherited.

The loss of key forward Kolbeinn Sigthorsson will hurt them in attack, but the rest of the team that shocked the world at EURO 2016 remains. They remain a fun team who plays attacking, constantly moving football, and have proved since France 2016 that their quarter-final run was no accident. Their tactics are hard to counter, and it makes them an unpredictable prospect.

Iceland are a side who will be underestimated, no doubt. But they are more than the sum of their parts and are the sort of team who can spring a surprise result this summer. Aron Gunnarsson is the man who will lead them out of central midfield.

Keep your eye on: who else but Gylfi Sigurðsson? At club level, he’s had an average campaign since moving to Everton, but he carries this Icelandic side. His ability to create something from nothing whether in open play or at set pieces is what makes him so dangerous, and he’ll need to do it for them to pull off the impossible.

CROATIA

Average Finishing Place In Group: 2nd
Odds to Qualify from Group (Percentage Chance): $1.60 (63.4%)
Odds to Win Group (Percentage Chance): $3.75 (26.7%)
Odds to Finish Bottom of Group (Percentage Chance): $7.80 (12.8%)
Odds to Win World Cup: $43.80 (2.3%)

It was a surprise to many, but Croatia had to resort to a playoff win over Greece to qualify for 2018’s version of the World Cup. Finishing second in their group behind Iceland, Zlatko Dalic was brought in two days before their final group game. On paper, this Croatia side is a hard one to beat, and if they replicate the way they handled the Greeks in the playoffs, Dalic’s men can do some damage in Russia.

Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić, Ivan Rakitić and Mario Mandžukić are the leaders of the side, forming the heartbeat of a talented unit that moves the ball strong and fast. The nation has had problems of its own as a footballing federation including claims of corruption, but the hope is that they can be either solved or put aside in the players' minds so they can focus on making the most of this golden generation of players.

If they can get it together and make it out of what might be the toughest group in the draw, Croatia is a team a lot of nations won’t want to face this summer.

Keep your eye on: arguably the world’s best midfielder, Luka Modrić. You never know, but this is likely the last time we’ll see him at a major tournament. The midfield metronome keeps things ticking like no other player, and his ability to control proceedings is central to any Croatian hope of progression through the tournament.

NIGERIA

Average Finishing Place In Group: 4th
Odds to Qualify from Group (Percentage Chance): $3.80 (26.4%)
Odds to Win Group (Percentage Chance): $13.30 (7.54%)
Odds to Finish Bottom of Group (Percentage Chance): $2.40 (41.0%)
Odds to Win World Cup: $530 (0.2%)

The Super Eagles made it through the undoubted group of death in African qualification, progressing ahead of Algeria, Cameroon and Zambia with a game to spare. Optimism is high amongst a talented unit led by German Gernot Rohr. The new manager has infused a once struggling side with youth and enthusiasm. They are no longer the strugglers who missed two straight African Cup of Nations tournaments.

Nigeria is a fast, ruthless counterattacking side led by Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho, Chelsea’s Victor Moses and Arsenal’s Alex Iwobi, with former Chelsea man John Obi Mikel the veteran in central midfield who forms a sturdy base for the attack to build upon.

The manner in which they qualified gives great hope, and they will believe they are Africa’s best hope of success this summer. They also overturned a 2-0 deficit against Argentina in a friendly to win 4-2, and that will fuel the belief of this talented group.

Keep your eye on: he’s had it tough at club level, but Kelechi Iheanacho is a star in the making. He was moved on from Manchester City after Pep Guardiola came to the club, but has begun to make his mark at Leicester City alongside Rihad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy. His ability to break open games will be vital to the Super Eagles’ hopes.

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