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6 clubs. 2 spots. Who will play NRL Finals?

Now that we're just a month out from the finals, it's time to revisit a few predictions and reassess some of the fringe contenders.

Having already admitted to reading the Raiders terribly wrong, there isn't any reason to touch on them here. Alongside the Storm, Roosters, and Rabbitohs, the Raiders are a finals side and the only thing left to determine is whether or not they finish inside the top four.

We can almost put the Sea Eagles and Eels in there, too.

Both go into Round 22 on 26 competition points and decent enough point differential to be safe. Only a monumental collapse will see them miss out on finals football. The sort of collapse those in the peloton chasing the Top 8 shouldn't rely on to make it.

So, let's take a look at the contenders for the last two Top 8 spots and have another crack at piecing the finals together.

7th - Penrith Panthers, 22 pts (-63PD)

Here's another wrong one.

When going over the 10 teams fighting for the finals following Round 10, the Panthers already had a line through them:

"There's a chance one or two of these three finish the season well and rise above 14th on the ladder, but they're not going to be relevant to the Top 8 heading into the August."

Wrong. Very wrong.

A seven-game winning streak later - albeit full of holes - has the Panthers sitting at 7th on the ladder with four rounds remaining.

Nathan Cleary played perhaps his best game of 2019 last week, and while James Maloney's suspension was frustrating at the time, the resulting rest could now be a blessing given they took the chocolates anyway. Appearing to blood another youngster every week, the youthful exuberance and excitement seems infections with the whole team improving across the park.

The Panthers face two problems, though.

Their next three games are all on the road against the Broncos, Cowboys and Roosters. The Broncos pose an obvious threat as another desperate side, the Cowboys match up well against the Panthers, and the Roosters are the Roosters.

With their -63 points differential effectively adding another loss to the column, the Panthers will need to win at least three of their last four to finish inside the Top 8. Their Round 25 clash against the Knights could decide their fate.

Remaining Schedule: @ Broncos, @ Cowboys, @ Roosters, Knights
SI Schedule Difficulty: 0.1
Predicted Finish: 9th

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8th - Brisbane Broncos, 21pts (-52PD)

While plenty were quick to jump off the Broncos as a finals contender when they lost six of their first eight games, the talent they sent out every week was too much to ignore.

The prediction for 6th isn't going to come in, but the Broncos will run close.

They keep doing enough to hang around and keep the five-season finals streak alive. It's all been on the back of the forward pack slowly developing some consistency. Early-season injuries and suspensions didn't help build any continuity in a side already playing with so many inexperienced youngsters. However, as they've been able to string a few games together, the Broncos have had a platform to attack from.

Issues around the spine continue to hold them back. Darius Boyd hasn't had the impact Anthony Seibold will have hoped for in the halves, but the team does look better with Anthony Milford at the back. 

He claimed 49 receipts per game while playing in the halves. That number has dropped to 41.1 per game, but Milford has been able to pick his moments. He's run for over 200 metres in three of his six games for an average of 129 metres per game. His 5.8 tackle breaks are almost double what Milford averaged in the halves, too. 

It's his improvements and the growing consistency of the young middle that has put them in the box seat for a place in the Top 8. Like Penrith, Brisbane's -52 points differential is an issue. It can be off-set throughout this three-game homestand, though. 

Remaining Schedule: Panthers, Rabbitohs, Eels, @ Bulldogs
SI Schedule Difficulty: 0.1
Predicted Finish: 8th

9th - Cronulla Sharks, 20pts (+2PD)

The Sharks are shaping up as the most frustrating team in the competition this season if they can't right their wrongs.

Appearing to have worked their way out of the hole that went as deep as a five-game losing streak with a fine win over the Rabbitohs in Round 20, the Sharks turned up to Panthers Stadium and took 45 minutes to get off the bus.

They allowed a Panthers team blooding three rookies, while also missing their most influential figure in James Maloney, to go 26-4 in front. 

The second half offered some encouragement.

Shaun Johnson showed his worth and looked dangerous every time he touched the football. Had there been another ten minutes added to the end, the Sharks would have found the points to get past the Panthers and take the chocolates. As we know, that isn't how it works.

The Sharks exposed themselves as pretenders. Even if they can sneak into the Top 8, they're not the smokey premiership contenders a handful of optimists claimed they were two months ago.

A lot of the issues start in the middle.

They've not finished a season outside the top six in running metres since 2014 - the year they won the wooden spoon. This year, Cronulla's 1,557 running metres per game ranks 11th.

Andrew Fifita's 112.6 running metres per game is his lowest average since 2012. Paul Gallen, as you'd expect at 37-years old, isn't what he once was. The 120 metres per game he's averaged in 2019 is his lowest since 2003. Aaron Woods' 122.6 metres is his lowest number since his 2011 rookie season, and the less said about Matt Prior, the better. 

Defensively, this about sums the Sharks at the moment.

It starts with Fifita not coming up square and is made worse by Woods' lazy effort to fill the gap from marker. That linebreak is just Cleary's third of the season, but he's been made to look like an in-form running half with how easy he got through.

The Sharks have the talent on the edges to be a finals side. Can the middle lay the platform?

Remaining Schedule: Dragons, Warriors, Raiders, @ Tigers
SI Schedule Difficulty: -0.6
Predicted Finish: 7th

10th - Wests Tigers, 20pts (-44PD)

Everything about this season is classic Tigers.

The Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall one-two-punch is winning them games, but never three on the trot.

Consistency continues to be a foreign concept for the Tigers who, after their recent Round 21 loss to the Bulldogs, look set to extend their finals-less streak to eight-consecutive seasons - the longest streak in the NRL.

Paul Momirovski had a chance to level things up on Saturday night, but pressure got the better of the young winger who shanked the final kick of the game.

This kick may end up being the painful reminder of a finals season that got away from the Tigers. Their goal-kicking isn't the sole reason for sitting outside the Top 8. However, their 65% success rate is far and away the worst in the competition and has cost them chances at victory throughout the season.

The Tigers aren't good enough to be leaving points on the kicking tee.

While their defence is steadily improving to be eighth-equal conceding 20.6 points per game, the inconsistencies in attack, particularly in good ball sets, has been an issue all season.

The Tigers average 29.4 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line per game for the fifth-most in the NRL. They're flanked by the Rabbitohs (29.6), Sea Eagles (29.5) and Storm (29.2). The problem for the Tigers lies in their 18.4 points compared to the 22.3 points, 21.2 points and 26.5 points per game the three others average per game.

Had the Tigers managed to get past the Bulldogs last week, they would be favoured to stay inside the Top 8 until the end of Round 25. The loss, along with injuries to Farah and Moses Mbye, leaves too much ground to make up, though.

Remaining Schedule: @ Sea Eagles, Knights, @ Dragons, Sharks
SI Schedule Difficulty: -0.5
Predicted Finish: 11th

11th - New Zealand Warriors, 19 points (-62PD)

If the Warriors were going to be a real chance at cracking the Top 8, they would be in there already. 

Six losses in a row at Mt Smart and the draw with the Broncos have left them with a mountain too high to climb. With the hardest remaining schedule of all 16 NRL teams, the Warriors are unlikely to pull off the miracle. 

Much to the frustration of the Warriors faithful, it's the inconsistent effort in defence that has left the side outside of a finals spot.

This group has proven to be capable.

They kept the Storm to 13 points in one of the more impressive efforts of any team this season. Just last week, the Warriors won the contact and kept a lid on the high-flying Sea Eagles until Adam Blair was sin-binned.

Like the Sharks, the Warriors are a team stacked with talent that can't string consistent performances together.

A handful of games in which the Warriors didn't turn up mentally is the difference between a 15-win 2018 season, and what might be 10-win 2019 season at best.

Remaining Schedule: @ Roosters, @ Sharks, Rabbitohs, @ Raiders
SI Schedule Difficulty-0.5
Predicted Finish: 12th

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12th - Newcastle Knights, 18pts (-21PD)

So, the skeptics unwilling to give the Knights the credit the fanbase was so desperately seeking two months ago were right to do so.

The Knights aren't very good.

Newcastle's ceiling for 2019 is to be average, and they'll struggle to get there at the rate they're travelling.

Losers of six in a row now, the Knights have eight wins and 12 losses through 21 rounds - the same they had this time last year.

Despite signing David Klemmer over the summer and now boasting three State of Origin forwards, the Knights are still running for the fewest metres in the NRL at 1,496 metres per game. They struggle to get out of their own end. As the pressure of poor field position builds, cracks in the defence open up. 

Once again, a lack of yardage through the middle is the biggest handbrake on any potential success at the club. It will remain until the club can find another middle forward to support Klemmer and his 176.3 running metres per game.

The easiest remaining schedule in the competition gives the Knights some hope. They'll need to win all four to be in with a sniff, though. A slight improvement on their 11th-placed finish in 2018 is more likely.

Remaining Schedule: Cowboys, @ Tigers, Titans, @ Panthers
SI Schedule Difficulty-1.7
Predicted Finish: 10th

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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