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U.S. Open Men’s Tournament Is Significant For One Reason Above All Others

The first thing which needs to be said about this genuinely unprecedented U.S. Open is that its long-term effects are completely unknowable. 

What happens in a tournament without fans, played in an isolated context removed from the weekly flow of a normal tennis calendar, is something we've never had to wrestle with before at a major tournament. 

The U.S. Open is normally an event in which attrition is overwhelmingly central to the proceedings in New York. Players who have laboured through a long tennis season, especially a hot summer at Wimbledon, in Canada and Cincinnati, arrive in New York for a final massive push.  

The U.S. Open is usually a last stand for many players on tour within the course of a tennis season. 

It is the time when a failure at Wimbledon or an unfulfilled year at the previous three majors can be wiped away with one big run. 

Players who have struggled to get past the fourth round or quarterfinals at a major can reset their outlook for the following year. Daniil Medvedev did precisely that with his tremendous performance at the 2019 U.S. Open. The narrative surrounding him, and the ceiling for his career, were dramatically reshaped by his dash to the final, where he very nearly toppled Rafael Nadal in a dramatic five-set final.

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At the 2020 U.S. Open, the normal backdrop for this tournament no longer exists. 

There has been no summer of struggle.

Tennis was quiet before slowly getting back into action in August. Players are physically fresh at the Open this year, instead of being worn down. The U.S. Open is the first major after the long pandemic-caused hiatus on tour, instead of being the last major of a long season. 

The U.S. Open script is being flipped 180 degrees. 

So many aspects of the 2020 tournament are complete inversions of the normal environment surrounding the event. 

Given that indoor events might pose extra COVID-19-related complications, one has to wonder if there will be an indoor season this fall. If there isn’t, the U.S. Open could be the only major a number of players will play in this year. 

Some will travel to Europe for Roland Garros, but not all. Many will stay in North America. Those who didn’t compete in the U.S. Open – especially players based in Europe – will take the court at Roland Garros and try to make a big statement there.  

The tennis year of 2020, such as it is, exists in a fragmented state that few “normal” conclusions can be arrived at. Some players will play in both New York and Paris. Some players might stitch together several events of consequence on tour. However, a lot of players will play one or two events in isolation and call it a year, waiting for 2021 to see if they can reclaim a somewhat “normal” tennis schedule, including the 2021 Australian Open. 

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The bottom line: Tennis is back in the sense that it is holding big tournaments, but the sport won’t be entirely “back” to normal until the weekly flow of tournaments and plane flights returns. 

Part of the challenge of professional tennis is found in handling the travel and the changes of surface and the constant flow of play over a whole year. That’s why rankings points are determined by 12-month sequences of performance.  

This current reality at the U.S. Open involves “tennis on an island,” one big event held after a very long layoff, with few big events down the line in the near future (Roland Garros, yes, but not much else). 

It is true that tennis is having a “year-end championship,” but it seems meaningless to have a year-end championship tournament after a year in which barely any tennis was played!  

This U.S. Open is conspicuous due to how isolated it is relative to the rest of the tennis calendar. Accordingly, it is hard to project how this tournament in New York will affect everyone on tour.  

Under normal circumstances, commentators such as myself would say things like, “This is a tournament Stefanos Tsitsipas really needs to set the table for 2021,” or, “This is an event where Alexander Zverevmust take the next step in his evolution, in order to maintain momentum and build confidence.” 

Let’s be honest enough to admit that in these weird circumstances, making those kinds of value judgments is pointless. 

What, then, CAN we say about this tournament’s significance which is at least somewhat substantive? It’s a challenge, but I think I can give you a reasonable answer: 

There is a very good chance the 2020 U.S. Open men’s tournament will create a first-time major finalist. That’s the biggest aspect of this tournament which could create a change in the 2021 tennis season, and possibly the future of the ATP Tour in the 2020s. 

It is true that the U.S. Open is the province of the elites. 

Only the best players win at the U.S. Open. 

The unexpected or less prominent major champions of the Open Era in men’s tennis have generally come from the Australian Open and Roland Garros. 

Wimbledon would occasionally produce a serve-demon champion such as Richard Krajicek or Goran Ivanisevic. Roscoe Tanner came close to winning Wimbledon in 1979. 

Yes, the U.S. Open has had a few unexpected winners – Marat Safin in 2000 and Marin Cilic in 2014 – but this tournament has crowned fewer “out of nowhere” winners than the other men’s majors in the Open Era.  

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However, with Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer both out of this year’s tournament – which is Novak Djokovic’s tournament to win – we are left with the strong possibility that a new face will make the final, much as Medvedev did last year.  

Medvedev or Dominic Thiem could make the final opposite Djokovic (the draw has not been released at the time this piece was written). In that case, there won’t be a first-time finalist. However, if those two men don’t make the final, there are very few other candidates left who could make a repeat appearance in a major final.

If Medvedev or Thiem aren’t in the final facing Djokovic, chances are there will be a new finalist. 

The reality of making a final in a tournament without Federer or Nadal might be reasonably minimised and downplayed by the tennis press. However, the simple fact of making a major final WILL create a new storyline and new expectations for 2021.  

Would we need to be careful in assuming that making a first major final would automatically represent a launching pad for a career? Yes. However, the potential for growth created by a first-time achievement would nevertheless exist. That player, whoever he is, would face a fresh test of composure and scrutiny. 

We can’t know what this 2020 U.S. Open men’s tournament will mean, but we can say that if a first-time major finalist is created, that one development would change the tennis landscape in a noticeable way. 

Let’s sit back and see if a new face changes the calculus for the 2021 ATP Tour season.

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Matt Zemek

Matt has written professionally about US College Football since 2000, and has blogged about professional Tennis since 2014. He wants the Australian Open to play Thursday night Women's Semi-Finals, and Friday evening Men's Semi-Finals. Contribute to his Patreon for exclusive content here.

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