This image is a derivative of Roger Federer @ BNP Paribas 2012 Open vs Federer by Mike McCune (CC BY 2.0)

The race to London is heating up.

The ATP's top eight players from 2019 will get the chance to lift the Nitto ATP Tour Finals trophy in a season-ending showdown. 

We look at all the contenders and their quest towards greatness. 

Congratulations to Domonic Thiem for taking out the China Open in astonishing fashion, and Novak Djokovic for hoisting the Japan Open Trophy during last weeks biggest tournaments.

Rafael Nadal 

ATP Race to London Rank: 1st

Points: 9225 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Paris Masters 1000 

Rafa Nadal was scheduled to play in the Shanghai Masters but a left wrist injury that has bothered him since the Laver Cup has forced him to withdraw. Nadal, the winner of 28 of his last 29 matches, will look forward now to the Paris Masters staring on the 28th of October.

NADAL KEY STATS:

Nadal is near perfection with a 46-1 record this year when winning the first set. During Masters 1000 events in 2019 he holds a stunning 19-2 record which is above both Roger Federer 15-3 and Novak Djokovic 16-5.

Nadal has won a whopping 37.2% of return games over the past 52 weeks, putting him head and shoulders above his competition. Nadal is 5.1% better over the second-placed Djokovic, who many believe is one of the greatest returners of serve the game has ever seen.

Novak Djokovic

ATP Race to London Rank: 2nd

Points: 7775 (+500) (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters 

The Joker blitzed the field in Japan winning his debut at the Rakuten Open without dropping a set,putting away the classy John Millman in the final. 

Novak, who demolished the field en route to last years Shanghai Open will look to do the same again in 2019. One thousand points is well within his reach, which will edge Novak closer to Nadal in the standings.

Djokovic gets a bye first up, then will play the winner of the exciting Denis Shapovalov and Frances Tiafoe matchup. Djokovic holds a comfortable 2-0 record over Shapovalov, both coming on hardcourts this year.

Novak could then end up playing the red hot Alex De Minaur in an agonizing baseline battle for the first time, or the big serving American, John Isner. Djokovic has not lost to Isner since 2013 and holds a strong 9-2 record. The Serb should continue his exceptional form and make another Shanghai Open final.

DJOKOVIC KEY STATS:

When winning the first set this year the Serb has a near perfect 43-3 record.

Novak has only lost eight matches this year. Five of these losses were on hard courts, giving him a 24-5 (83%) record. 

Stats Insider’s World Rankings has Djokovic as the world's second-best hardcourt player only behind Rafa Nadal. 

Novak leads the ATP Tour in break-points converted with 46.2%. Give this all-time great a chance and he is going to push you to breaking point.

<ad>

Roger Federer

ATP Race to London Rank: 3rd

Points: 5520 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters

Roger Federer has won the Shanghai Masters only twice in his career and will need a superhuman effort to claim his third title, in a ‘Grand Slam’ like playing field. 

The Fed Express has drawn Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the second round where they share a 1-1 record against one another. They haven’t played since 2015 but Federer should get the job done here without breaking to much of a sweat.

Federer holds a 9-1 record over a potential third round opponent, David Goffin who made the semi final in Japan last week.

A tough draw lands the Swiss a duel against Alexander Zverev, where there is no separating the pair at three wins a piece.

FEDERER KEY STATS:

Roger has a dominant 38-4 record this year when winning the opening set.

The Swiss maestro is 15-3 (83.3%) in Masters 1000 events this year. On hardcourts in 2019, he is winning a massive 91.5% of service games and that jumps further to 92.5% in Masters 1000 tournaments.

Daniil Medvedev

ATP Race to London Rank: 4th

Points: 4885 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters

The tournaments third seed has a bye first up, before playing Cameron Norrie in the second round which should be a straight forward victory in their first encounter. With his quarter really opening up a run to the semi finals looks likely.

In what could be the match of the tournament, a semi final showdown against Novak will be much watch tennis. Novak does hold a 3-2 head to head advantage but Medvedev has won the previous two contests.

KEY STATS:

Medvedev has a dominant 49-4 record when winning the first set in 2019.

Medvedev has made the final of his past five tournaments becoming only the fifth active player to accomplish this feat, joining the Big Four.

The Russian has the most Indoor Hardcourt wins over the past 52 weeks with a 22-6 record and two titles to his name. Stats Insider's World Rankings also has him ranked the fourth-best player in the world on Hardcourts.

Dominic Thiem

ATP Race to London Rank: 5th

Points: 4355 (+500) (qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters 

Thiem just had to make the final in China to qualify for the season ending showdown. Thiem did just that and more. Two massive wins against top competition in Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov were pivotal in claiming the hardware.

Thiem has found himself in a favourable section of the draw in Shanghai. The fourth seed should breeze into the third round where he should take care of Nikoloz Basilashvili who he does have a 0-1 record against, with a loss back in 2017. 

A potential quarter final against two London hopefuls, Roberto Bautista Agut or Matteo Berrettini will be big. Theim has a poor 1-3 record against Bautista Agut which could continue as the Spaniard has the perfect game to wear out the Austrian from the baseline.

If Thiem does come out of his quarter alive an entertaining showdown against Federer or Alexander Zverev will be enticing.

THIEM KEY STATS:

The Austrian has a superb 32-3 record when winning the first set in 2019.

On hardcourts in this year, Thiem has won 88.9% of his deciding sets. This now puts himin second place behind only Kevin Anderson who sits at 100%. If Thiem is up for the grind, he is more than likely to get the job done.

<ad>

Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Race to London Rank: 6th

Points: 3380

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters 1000

Tsitsipas had a huge bounce back tournament last week, falling in the final to the powerful Dominic Thiem. A 7-6 6-4 result over the top five ranked Zverev will give Tsitsipas the much needed boost of confidence heading to Shanghai.

Tsitsipas has earned a first round bye in Shanghai. A dangerous Felix Auger-Aliassime will be licking his lips in round two as he holds a 2-0 record over Tsitsipas in two straight forward contests. Tsitsipas should be able to take care of Felixon the big stage. 

For the third tournament in a row a potential matchup against the recently disappointing Gael Monfils should be waiting in the third round where Tsitsipas looks to extend his 2-1 head to head record against the Frenchman. With Novak in his quarter, the run will stop there.

TSITSIPAS KEY STATS:

Stefanos holds a brilliant 34-4 record when winning the first set this season.

Tsitsipas is 8-6 against top 20 opponents this year and has only won 65% (25-13) of matches on hardcourt. Tsitsipas is a much safer bet on the clay courts where he is ranked sixth on the Stats Insider Tennis World Rankings and has a 75% (15-5) win/loss record.

Roberto Bautista Agut

ATP Race to London Rank: 7th

Points: 2405

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters 1000

Bautista Agut also gets a first round bye, before stepping on court for his first encounter against the 6”11 Rielly Opelka, who made the Japan Open semi finals last week. The two contrasting game styles will make this an interesting duel. Bautista Agut the more experienced veteran should just get over the line. 

If Bautista Agut can get though a deadly third round match against Matteo Berrettini where he has a 1-2 losing record, a more favourable matchup against Thiem awaits. 

Bautista Agut will need a strong showing if he wants to stay in the top eight before the end of the week.

BAUTISTA AGUT KEY STATS:

When winning the first set this year Bautista Agut has a solid 30-5 record.

The Spaniard - who relies heavily on his baseline game - needs to get into rallies to win matches. 

He is currently ranked 5th on the tour for second serve return points won at 54.1%. 

Bautista Agut also has a handy 22- 9 record on hardcourts this year, and Stats Insider has ranked him accordingly at number nine on the surface.

Alexander Zverev

ATP Race to London Rank: 11th

Points: 2265 (+145)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters 1000  

Sascha delivered last week in making a semi final in China catapulting himself up three spots to number eight in the Race to London.

A strong result in Shanghai could see him leap past Bautista Agut into seventh place. Zverev comes in as the fifth seed which will see him have a bye first round, before a matchup against a struggling Kyle Edmund. Zverev holds a handy 4-0 record over Edmund. 

Its anybodys guess who Zverev might play in the third round. It might be the inform Aussie John Millman who made the Japan Open Final last week or the winner of the Andrey Rublev vs Borna Coric showdown. Zverev will be hoping to steer clear of Coric who holds a strong 3-1 record over the German. If Zverev makes if out of the third round things just keep looking tougher with Federer standing in his path. 

ZVEREV KEY STATS:

When Zverev wins the first set this year, he holds a strong 33-7 winning record. The seven losses puts him with more than any of these top 12 players on the leaderboard.

Zverev’s win-loss record played on indoor hardcourts sits at 13-3 over the
past 52 weeks. This puts him in second place, behind only Gael Monfils.

He is looking for some strong results in the coming months indoor tournaments, to help push himself into the top eight. 

David Goffin

ATP Race to London Rank: 12th

Points: 2245 (+165)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters 1000

A great semi final result in Japan was just what the doctor ordered. The result has shot Goffin to ninth place on the Race to London leaderboard. 

Although he would have liked to be more competitive against a far superior Djokorvic the result keeps him within striking distance.

The first round will see Goffin take on Gasquet. Goffin holds a solid 2-1 record against the Frenchman with the most recent win coming in Cinncinati 6-3 6-4 not that long ago.

I can see Goffin making the third round where Federer will be too hot to handle.

GOFFIN KEY STATS:

Goffin holds a positive 25-4 record when winning the first set this calendar year.

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Goffin ranked 20th overall, but only the 29th ranked player on hardcourts. Goffin holds a 16-13 record on the hardcourts this year and is 8-7 in ATP Masters 1000 events.

Matteo Berrettini

ATP Race to London Rank: 10th

Points: 2195

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters  

Berrettini will open his Shanghai campaign against Jan-Lennard Struff, where he holds a 1-0 record, beating the German in Germany earlier this year. Berrittini should get the chance to play Bautista Agut in the third round before a potential showdown against the feisty Austrian, Dominic Thiem in the quarters. Thiem does hold a 1-0 edge over Berrettini but the Italian will need a huge effort just to get another shot at Thiem.

BERRETTINI KEY STATS:

When Berrettini wins the first set in 2019 he holds a massive 26-4 record, although in Masters 1000 events he has a dismal 2-5 record.

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Berrettini ranked #65 on hard courts, which aligns with his 11-12 record on the surface this season. Five of those 11 wins came in the 2019 US Open.

Put Berrettini on Grass or Clay courts this season he is a different animal with a 24-6 combined.

Kei Nishikori

ATP Race to London Rank: 11th

Points: 2180

Next Tournament: Vienna Erste Bank Open

Nishikori’s shot at a top eight finish has taken a tumble this week after sustaining an arm/elbow injury which has bothered him since the French Open. The time off will help him recover before playing Vienna, where he lost the final to Kevin Anderson in 2018.

NISHIKORI KEY STATS:

Nishikori holds a solid 24-4 record this year when winning the first set.

When getting a look at a second serve Nishikori is winning 54% of points, placing him sixth on the ATP tour.

<ad>

Gael Monfils

ATP Race to London Rank: 12th

Points: 2135

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters

Monfils has blown another great chance of making the eight with another disappointing loss, this one coming to the hands of John Isner in the first round of the Beijing Open. Two weeks in a row I have thrown my full support behind Monfils and results have backfired.

Monfils will want to improve on his first round exit in Shanghai last year. He will open his tournament against Lorenzo Sonego of Italy where they will meet for the first time. Fingers crossed he makes the third round where I have been waiting three weeks for the matchup against Tsitsipas, in which should be another thriller between the pair.

MONFILS KEY STATS:

Gael has an admirable 24-4 record when winning the first set in 2019.

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Monfils currently ranked as the 6th best player in the world on hard court. This is no surprise as Monfils has won 82.1% (24-7) of his matches on the surface this year. The Frenchmen also has a tour-best 14-3 record played indoor over the past 52 weeks. 

Watch out for Gael in the coming indoor events!

STILL A SNEAKY CHANCE:

FABIO FOGNINI

ATP Race To London Rank: 13th

Points: 1965

DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN

ATP Race To London Rank:14th  

Points: 1850

Did you enjoy this article? Leave a comment below, or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.