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Race To London: ATP Finals Leaderboard - 1st Oct, 2019

This image is a derivative of Novak Djokovic by Carine06 (CC BY-ND 2.0)

The race to London is heating up.

The ATP's top eight players from 2019 will get the chance to lift the Nitto ATP Tour Finals trophy in a season-ending showdown. 

We look at all the contenders and their quest towards greatness.

Well done to Australia's Alex De Minaur for taking out the Zhuhai Championships and
Pablo Carrena Busta for hoisting the Chengdu Open Trophy during last
weeks biggest tournaments.

(We will publish an updated ladder each week on our Tennis hub, tracking the top players' points and what to expect in their next tournament... plus some helpful stats!)


Rafael Nadal 

ATP Rank: 1st

Points: 9225 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters

Rafa Nadal was scheduled to play in the China Open but has decided to put his feet up and recuperate. A minor wrist injury troubled the legendary Spaniard at the Laver Cup, causing him to withdraw from final day matches. The two-week break should help Nadal recover in time for the ATP 1000 event in Shanghai.

Expect nothing less than a semi-finals appearance from Rafa, who is having yet another record-breaking year.

NADAL KEY STATS:

Nadal has won a whopping 37.2% of return games over the past 52 weeks,
putting him head and shoulders above his competition. Nadal is 5.5% better
over the second-placed Novak Djokovic, who many believe is one of the
greatest returners of serve the game has ever seen.

Novak Djokovic

ATP Rank: 2nd

Points: 7265 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Rakuten Japan Open 

This is Novak’s debut Rakuten Open and going into this tournament, Stats Insider’s World Rankings has Djokovic as the world's second-best hardcourt player only behind Rafa Nadal.

Novak has found himself in a great half of the draw. A potential quarter-final matchup against Lucas Pouille should see him breeze into the semis where Marin Cilic or David Goffin should be waiting. It's hard to see Novak losing a set on his way to a Rakuten Open Championship, especially when his greatest threats in Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic have withdrawn.

DJOKOVIC KEY STATS:

Novak has a 2-0 record over the potential quarter-final opponent in Pouille and an unfathomable 17-2 record over Marin Cilic. 

The Serb has only lost eight matches this year. Five of these losses were on hard courts, though, giving him a 19-5 (79.2%) record

Novak leads the ATP Tour in break-points converted with 46.4%. Give this all-time great a chance and he is going to push you to breaking point.

Roger Federer

ATP Rank: 3rd

Points: 5510 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters

Roger Federer and Team Europe had a ball during the Laver Cup weekend in Geneva. Federer looked relaxed and refreshed during the three-day tournament which saw him hold off both Nick Kygrios and John Isner

Federer has won the Shanghai Masters only twice in his career and will need a superhuman effort to claim his third title, in a ‘Grand Slam’ like playing field. We could expect a semi-final appearance for Federer but with all this young talent coming through, a fourth-round/quarter-final loss is possible if he pulls Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas in his side of the draw.

FEDERER KEY STATS:

The Swiss maestro is 15-3 (83.3%) in Masters 1000 events this year. On hardcourts in 2019, he is winning a massive 91.5% of service games and that jumps further to 92.5% in Masters 1000 tournaments.

Daniil Medvedev

ATP Rank: 4th

Points: 4805 (Qualified)

Next Tournament: Shanghai Masters

Daniil Medvedev was scheduled to play in China but has decided to pull the pin on this plan. Medvedev aims to be ready for the Masters 1000 event in Beijing instead.

Having played 25 tournaments over the past 52 weeks (eight more than both Rafa Nadal & Novak Djokovic) a rest is well deserved after already qualifying for London.

KEY STATS:

Medvedev has the most Indoor Hardcourt wins over the past 52 weeks with a 22-6 record and two titles to his name. Stats Insider's World Rankingsalso has him ranked the fourth-best player in the world on Hardcourts.

Dominic Thiem

ATP Rank: 5th

Points: 3845

Next Tournament: Beijing China Open

Dominic Thiem is the number one seed heading into the Beijing China Open, which sports twelve of the top twenty players in the world. If the Austrian can get out of the blocks to beat a dangerous Richard Gasquet and Kyle Edmond, he should find some confidence for a semi-final showdown against another young up and coming Russian, Karen Khachanov

A strong showing at Beijing should see Thiem edge closer to becoming the fifth player qualify for London.

THIEM KEY STATS:

Thiem has played his first-round opponent Richard Gasquet on two occasions,
losing both encounters.

On hardcourts in 2019, Thiem has won 87.5% of his deciding sets. This puts him in third place behind only Kevin Anderson and Richard Gasquet

If Thiem is up for the grind, he is more than likely to get the job done. If Thiem is not ready to pull out a stunning last set victory he is only 8-8 on hardcourts in 2019 well behind his record of 23-7 on clay.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Rank: 6th

Points: 3160

Next Tournament: Beijing China Open

After coming out during the week and saying “My goal was to make it to London and it still is to make it to London,” Stefanos Tsitsipas had to withdraw from his first-round match against Adrian Mannarino due to breathing difficulties at the Zhuhai Championships.

Tsitsipas looks to bounce back quickly and charm the crowd at Beijing, where he
will be the third seed. This could see a matchup in the quarter-final against Gael
Monfils
, who he was on the path to playing in Zhuhai last week. 

Monfils should be too strong, but this matchup is only possible if he can get past the tricky 17th ranked Nikoloz Basilashvili in the second round, who Tsitsipas beat in four tough sets at this years Australian Open.

TSITSIPAS KEY STATS:

Tsitsipas is only 5-5 against top 20 opponents this year and has only won 64.5%
of matches on hardcourt
. Tsitsipas is a much safer bet on the clay courts where he is ranked sixth on the Stats Insider Tennis World Rankings and has a 75% (15-5) win/loss record.

If Tsitsipas and Monfils do host a quarter-final showdown, Tsitsipas holds a 2-1 record in three very tight, brutal encounters.

Roberto Bautista Agut

ATP Rank: 7th

Points: 2395 (+45)

Next Tournament: Beijing China Open

Bautista Agut missed out on playing Nick Krygios in Zhuhai but had to play against an in-form Alex De Minaur instead. A 6-2 6-2 thrashing against the young gun Australian was not the result he would have expected being the more experienced player heading into the match. The semi-final appearance was enough to earn him a cool 45 points, separating himself further from the eighth-placed Matteo Berrettini.

The Spaniard has received a shockingly tough draw ahead of the China Open, drawing Sam Querry in the opener, who can beat Novak on a good day, and then on a bad day, lose to my brother, who - twelve years ago - played section one juniors for his local club.

He could then play Fernando Verdasco or Diego Schwartzman in the second round before a challenging match against Alexander Zverev in the quarters. I can’t see Bautista Agut making it past the quarters after the disappointing result against De Minaur.

BAUTISTA AGUT KEY STATS:

Bautista Agut has a 3-0 head to head record against Querry, but a potential second-round match against Verdasco could be deadly with his 4-1 losing record

The Spaniard - who relies heavily on his baseline game - needs to get into rallies to win matches. He is currently ranked 9th on the tour for second serve return points won at 53.4%. 

Bautista Agut also has a handy 22- 8 record on hardcourts this year, and Stats Insider has ranked him accordingly at number nine on the surface.

Matteo Berrettini

ATP Rank: 8th

Points: 2185

Next Tournament: Beijing China Open

An unknown player to most casual fans before this season, Berrettini has burst onto the scene with a massive US Open semi-final result. With a strong field in China, a good result for Berrettini will probably be a quarter-final appearance where Dominic Thiem should prove too strong. 

Berrettini will have to get past Andy Murray in the first round, who can still play some gritty tennis. This will keep his chances for a top eight finish alive in a fight to hold off the likes of Kei Nishikori, Zverev and a surging Gael Monfils.

BERRETTINI KEY STATS:

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Berrettini ranked #65 on hard courts, which aligns with his 11-11 record on the surface this season. Five of those 11 wins came in the 2019 US Open.

Kei Nishikori

ATP Rank: 9th

Points: 2180

Next Tournament: Vienna Erste Bank Open

Nishikori’s shot at a top eight finish has taken a tumble this week after sustaining an arm/elbow injury which has bothered him since the French Open. The time off will help him recover before playing Vienna, where he lost the final to Kevin Andersonin 2018.

NISHIKORI KEY STATS:

Nishikori is 7-3 in ATP 500 events this year but is yet to beat a top-five ranked player. When getting a look at a second serve Nishikori is winning 54.1% of points, placing him sixth on the ATP tour.

Gael Monfils

ATP Rank: 10th

Points: 2125 (+45)

Next Tournament: Beijing China Open

Monfils just scraped by Britain's Cameron Norrie before bowing out in straight sets
against Albert Ramos-Vinolas last week. Despite the poor result in Zhuhai, Monfils has bolted to number ten in the standings, up from twelve last week. 

The seventh seed in China, Monfils has drawn the big American, John Isner, who currently leads the ATP over the past 52 weeks in service games won, at 93%. I’m still taking Monfils but only just, at 7-6 7-6. Monfils will need to then beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters, before taking on one of the five players who can come out of the bottom quarter of the draw. 

A good result here could see Monfils make the top eight depending on other results. 

MONFILS KEY STATS: 

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Monfils currently ranked as the 6th best player in the
world on hard court. This is no surprise as Monfils has won 82.1% (23-5) of his
matches on the surface this year
. The Frenchmen also has a tour-best 14-3
record played indoor
this season. 

Watch out for Gael in the coming indoor events!

Alexander Zverev

ATP Rank: 11th

Points: 2120

Next Tournament: Beijing China Open

Zverev is scheduled to play the China Open for the fourth year running, where anything less than a semi-final will be considered a disappointing result for the young German,
who needs to find consistency when it matters. 

Zverev is yet to beat a top 10 opponent this year, and will need to if he is any chance of hoisting the trophy in China. 

'Sascha' comes in as the second seed, facing the flashy Frances Tiafoe in round one, who he has a great 4-1 record against. After taking care of Tiafoe, another young stud in Felix Auger Aliassime stands in the way. I believe he is in the toughest quarter, but if he makes it out, it will be a massive result for the German moving forward on his way to London

ZVEREV KEY STAT:

Zverev’s win-loss record played on indoor hardcourts sits at 13-3 over the
past 52 weeks
. This puts him in second place, behind only Gael Monfils.

He is looking for some strong results in the coming months indoor tournaments,
to help push himself into the top eight.

David Goffin

ATP Rank: 12th

Points: 2080

Next Tournament: Rakuten Japan Open

David Goffin will be the third seed in the Japan Open

There is a chance he makes a semi-final where he would probably face Novak Djokovic but getting past the quarters would in itself be a huge challenge with some strong competition in Marin Cilic, Denis Shapovalov and a former top ten player in Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round, who just won the Chengdu Open in a thrilling last set tie-breaker. Carreno Busta also holds a 2-1 advantage in head to head against Goffin.

GOFFIN KEY STATS:

If Goffins gets past Carreno Busta, he has a solid 3-3 record against the big-serving Croatian, Marin Cilic, but any further and he runs into Djokovic who he has only beaten once in seven attempts.

Stats Insider's World Rankings has Goffin ranked 20th overall, but only the 29th ranked player on hardcourts. Goffin holds a 13-11 record on the hardcourts this yearand is 4-4 in ATP 500 events.

STILL A SNEAKY CHANCE:

FABIO FOGNINI

ATP Rank: 13th

Points: 1965

DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN

ATP Rank: 14th  

Points: 1850

READ MORE ABOUT STATS INSIDER'S TENNIS WORLD RANKINGS:

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Ben Rogers

Peaked too early, six footy premierships with Red Hill then a trip to Europe and 15kg later, it was time to hang up the boots and watch the pros. LeBron is the GOAT, Essendon FC forever and wishing for a huge Andy Murray comeback story.

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