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ATP Finals 2019: The Elite 8

This image is a derivative of Eastbourne tennis 2017-163.jpg by James Boyes (CC BY 2.0)

It all comes down to this.

The stage has been set for a enthralling ATP Finals. 

The top eight players of 2019 are set to grind it out in London. Every player comes from a different country for the fourth consecutive year.

The ATP finals will see a young field of talent with four players under the age of 23 - Daniil Medvedev (23), Stefanos Tsitsipas (21), Alexander Zverev (22), Matteo Berrettini (23) - which will be the first time since 2009 when he had Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro making the cut.

An added bonus will see Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic fighting it out to see who becomes the year end world number one.

Group Andre Agassi:

(1) Rafael Nadal

(4) Daniil Medvedev

(6) Stefanos Tsitsipas

(7) Alexander Zverev

Group Bjorn Borg:

(2) Novak Djokovic

(3) Roger Federer

(5) Dominic Thiem

(8) Matteo Berrettini

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Nadal 

 Djokovic 

 Federer 

Medvedev 

Thiem 

Tsitsipas

 Zverev 

 Berrettini 

 Overall 

1

Rafael Nadal


26–28

24–16

2–0

9–4

4–1

5–0

1–0

71–49

2

Novak Djokovic

28–26


26–22

3–2

6–3

2–2

3–2

0–0

68–57

3

Roger Federer

16–24

22–26


3–0

2–4

2–1

3–4

1–0

49–59

4

Daniil Medvedev

0–2

2–3

0–3


1–2

5–0

1–4

1–0

10–14

5

Dominic Thiem

4–9

3–6

4–2

2–1


4–2

5–2

2–1

24–23

6

Stefanos Tsitsipas

1–4

2–2

1–2

0–5

2–4


3–1

1–0

10–18

7

Alexander Zverev

0–5

2–3

4–3

4–1

2–5

1–3


2–1

15–21

8

Matteo Berrettini

0–1

0–0

0–1

0–1

1–2

0–1

1–2


2–8


Rafael Nadal

2019 Record: 48-6

Versus Top 10 Opponents: 7-4

Result Last Year: Injured

The King of Clay is a big risk coming into the event after having to withdraw from the Paris Masters semi-finals. The new world number one has never won this event (0-8) but you can read that stat in two ways. Either, it’s his time to finally win the ATP finals or after a grueling season his body has never been able to hold up and beat the world's best over a tough week of fierce competition.

Over the span of the last 52 weeks, Nadal is leading the ATP Tour in % first serve return points won (35.7%), % second serve return points won (56.3%) and return games won (36.3%). This is a superb stat for Nadal fans, as it means he's fighting hard every point/game and has a great chance to break serve at vital points in the match. 

However, due to the injury risk and never being able to win the ATP finals, Nadal could make it past the group stage but anything more might be a big ask, especially if Novak Djokovic is waiting for him in the semis or the final.

Novak Djokovic

2019 Record: 53-9

Versus Top 10 Opponents: 7-4

Result Last Year: Finalist - Lost to Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3

Djokovic has won this event five times which equals both Pete Sampras and Ivan Lendl for second on the all-time list. Five wins out of eleven appearances is a huge achievement for the Serb. Having demolished Alexander Zverev in the group stage last year, everyone thought it was going to be a walk in the park for Djokovic in the final. But boy, were we wrong. Zverev put on a clinic causing Djokovic to lose his serve for the first time that week in the final, before shutting the door on a sixth ATP crown for Nole.

Djokovic should head into the tournament as the favourite. His consistency is back to its sublime best and he should cruise past the group stage, heading into the finals rearing to go. He should make quick work of Matteo Berrettini and his controlled tennis should get him over the line against both Dominic Thiem and Roger Federer.

Nole leads the ATP tour in break points converted at 49.1%. If Djokovic is given a chance this year its nearly a coin flip to see if he will break your serve.

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Roger Federer

2019 Record: 51-8

Versus Top 10 Opponents: 5-5

Result Last Year: Semi-finalist

The Fed Express, champion of the ATP Finals a record six times is fresh off a dominant display of tennis in Basel. He looks to widen the gap between him and Djokovic with yet another ATP Finals crown. After crashing out to eventual champion Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals last year, Federer is hunting his first win since 2011 having lost three finals since that last trophy.

The ageless Swiss will give it his best. People have been writing him off for years now and that gives him the motivation to keep proving everyone wrong while continuing to etch his name into the history books. It's tough competition this year but if Federer can serve well, like he has over the past 52 weeks winning 91.6% of his service games, he could probably scrape past the group stage before succumbing to a younger and fresher foe.

He should be too classy for Matteo Berrettini but he'll still need to win one more match against either Novak Djokovic or Dominic Thiem to advance.

Daniil Medvedev

2019 Record: 59-17

Versus Top 10 Opponents: 8-6

Result Last Year: NA - First ATP Finals appearance 

What a year it has been for Daniil Medvedev. He has nearly done it all. Next up in his line will be winning the Nitto ATP finals or a Grand Slam. Both would do just nicely for him. As seen throughout 2019, Medvedev has the game to challenge anyone who dares to stand in his path of destruction.

If Medvedev can get his way out of the group stage and into the finals, in his mind he knows he can win it all. Beating Novak Djokovic in two consecutive meetings has proved that point. 

Medvedev has a strong service but what fills out his all-around game is his return game. Over the past 52 weeks he ranks fourth in return games won (29%) and third in second serve return points won (55.7). Medvedev has played plenty of tournaments so ,if the body can hold up, he should be in for a deep run.

His fans can back him to win both his matches against Zverev and Tsitsipas. And if Rafael Nadal isn’t 100%, he could finish the group stage undefeated.

Dominic Thiem

2019 Record: 45-16

Versus Top Ten Opponents: 6-3

Result Last Year: Group Stage

Dominic Thiem has had a stellar 2019 by winning five titles. Three of these titles have also come on hard courts, which is his second best surface. Stats Insider Tennis World Rankingshas Thiem ranked as the sixth best player in the world on hard courts. 

Thiem is only one of three players in the final eight to have a positive combined win/loss record against all opponents at 24-23. The most impressive is a 4-2 record over the Swiss Maestro, Roger Federer. Over the past 52 weeks Thiem holds a stunning 100% record on deciding sets won in all hardcourt matches. Lets hope the run will continue and we can see Thiem fight out a gritty win at the London 02 arena.

Stats aside. Thiem still hasn’t showed he can consistently match it with the best which is why I think he does not make it out of the group stage. He will have to beat either Novak or Federer if he wants to advance.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

2019 Record: 48-23

Versus Top Ten Opponents: 5-7

Result Last Year: NA - First ATP Finals appearance. Won the ATP Next Gen Finals in 2018.

After winning the ATP Next Gen title in 2018, Tsitsipas has flown up the leaderboard with a career-best year. He has beaten each of the top three players once already which should give him extreme confidence heading into the tournament. The only player that he can't get over the hump against is Medvedev. He has come up short in all five outings against the Russian. It's important to note that he has drawn Medvedev in the group stage, so if he can't win Tsitsipas will need to beat Nadal and the 2018 champion Zverev which is a massive task.

Tsitsipas has the hunger and the flare to rattle things but this might not be his tournament. Zverev and Dimitrov are the past two champions here, so one of the big three (Rafa, Roger, Novak) could be asserting their dominance here once again.

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Alexander Zverev

2019 Record: 41-22

Versus Top 10 Opponents: 1-5

Result Last Year: Champion

Can Zverev go back-to-back? Let's be real here, the answer is probably "NO!". He may not even make it past the group stage or worse, go winless. The second option might be harsh but he has a dismal 1-5 record against top 10 opponents this year.

Zverev's 2019 campaign did not live up to his stellar 2018 season where he won four titles compared to this year's one. He still loves the indoor courts and can go on a magic run in London and prove the doubters wrong. He does match up well against Medvedev - winning four of their five encounters. But he will most likely need to get his first victory ever against Nadal (0-5) if he wants to make it out of the group stage.

SStats Insider Tennis World Rankings has Zverev as the 11thbest player in the world on hard courts and the ninth best player overall.

Matteo Berrettini

2019 Record: 42-20

Versus Top Ten Opponents: 5-4

Result Last Year: NA - First ATP Finals appearance.

Berrettini has snuck into the ATP finals after an incredible year which he started ranked 54th in the world.

He did leave his fate in the hands of Frenchman Gael Monfils. All Monfils had to do was win his quarter-final against Denis Shapovalov but he crashed out in straight sets, gifting Berrettini a well deserved London berth.

He has drawn Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem which will require his US Open form to kick back into gear if he wants any chance of making it past the group stage. Berrettini will need his weapon of a serve to be on fire. He currently sits eight on the ATP tour with 87.8% of service games won over the past 52 weeks.

Did you enjoy this article? Join the conversation by leaving a comment below, or get in touch via the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.

Ben Rogers

Peaked too early, six footy premierships with Red Hill then a trip to Europe and 15kg later, it was time to hang up the boots and watch the pros. LeBron is the GOAT, Essendon FC forever and wishing for a huge Andy Murray comeback story.

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