10,000 ways in which Australian Open 2020 could play out
The year’s first grand slam, and one of the most prestigious events on the Tennis calendar - the Australian Open - kicks off this Monday, in Melbourne.
Women's tennis has seen 11 different singles winners in the last 17 Grand Slams, while the WTA #1 rank has switched hands a massive 13 times in the last three years. As always, Serena Williams is among the favourites as she seeks her 24th Grand Slam title. World #1 Ash Barty is also in major contention for her first Australian Open title and will be playing as a Grand Slam champion for the first time at Melbourne Park.
Over on the men's side of the draw, defending champion Novak Djokovic looks to continue his dominance of Rod Laver Arena, eyeing his eighth Australian Open title. Roger Federer is waiting for his first Grand Slam victory since the 2018 Australian Open while Rafael Nadal would want a repeat of his performance at the US Open for back-to-back Grand Slam titles.
Over the last few months, we have been developing and refining our predictive tennis model, which projects out the mathematical probabilities of a player winning a match, and several other market predictions, after running 10,000 simulations of said match. We do the same for our futures markets for tournament champions.
Enter our free 2020 Australian Open Tournament Simulator. Here's what one user had to say on Reddit:
The simulator is the best way to explore the underlying data that powers our tournament predictions, providing hours of entertainment - or simply a bad case of RSI - while you try to work your way through up to 10,000 different tournament outcomes.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Simply select the player whose Australian journey you want to follow, then sit back and watch the simulator do its thing. Each time you click ‘SIMULATE’ the entire tournament will simulate match-by-match, processing through one single possible tournament journey from up to 10,000 possible Australian Open championships.
Unhappy with the result or want to see a different variation? Just run the simulator again and you’ll have a different outcome.
Remember, there are 10,000 possibilities in total.
WHAT GOES INTO A MATCH SIMULATION?
The basis for all of our simulations is our proprietary algorithms. We take a range of inputs, including our custom player-level data and court-type rankings, as well as information gleaned from the betting markets and trends, which is then amalgamated into performance projections for each player. From there, we run simulations of each match - point-by-point - 10,000 times to form our probabilities for each match.
Each use of the Australian Open Simulator draws from one of our 10,000 simulations for its match results.
HOW OFTEN IS IT UPDATED?
During the tournament itself, the simulation will regularly be updated with the results of each match, so you can run updated simulations throughout the entire 2019 Australian Open.
IS THERE MORE INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC MATCHES?
Match pages will be on the Stats Insider website prior to the first games.
In the meantime, check out the simulator, learn how we built our Tennis model, and check out our custom Tennis world rankings, and why we think they’re better and more accurate than the official rankings.