Down the Blindside: Super Rugby Round 2

The second round of the Super Rugby season doesn’t get any easier for the Australian franchises with the Reds set to open their season against the Highlanders on Friday night. The Brumbies face the Chiefs, while the Waratahs will be the outright favourites to roll the Sunwolves. 

The Kiwi sides delivered some classic encounters in the opening round and will be tough to beat with the Lions and the Bulls looming as the real movers of the 2019 season.

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Highlanders vs Reds

When & Where: Friday 22nd February, 4.35PM, Forsyth Barr Stadium

Keep an eye on: Waisake Naholo
The All Blacks winger comes into the Highlanders side in place of Matt Faddes on the right wing. Naholo adds some real strike power and will be eager to prove his worth to All Blacks selectors with a clinical performance against an inconsistent Reds side, still learning their craft under Brad Thorn. Naholo is a proven performer at international level and a solid start against the Reds in Otago could put him on the plane to Japan for the World Cup.

Match Comment
After a bye in the opening round, Brad Thorn’s side will have plenty to ponder, facing a Highlanders side coming off an upset 30-27 win over the Chiefs. The Highlanders have won three of their last four games against the Reds, and the Kiwi side will be desperate to avoid back-to-back losses to Australian franchises. The Reds have lost three of their last four opening fixtures and it’s been five long years since they picked up the W against the Highlanders in New Zealand.

Who Wins & Why?
The Highlanders were all class in the opening round to pull off a 30-27 away win over the Chiefs. Aaron Mauger has named nine All Blacks in his starting side, with Shannon Frizell starting at blindside flanker and Dillon Hunt coming into the pack for James Lentjes. Reds coach Brad Thorn made the bold call to cull some of the veterans in the offseason, but it will take some time to have an effect. The Highlanders simply have too much class for an enthusiastic Reds side struggling to play consistent rugby for the full 80 minutes.

Betting Value
The home side are overwhelming favourites to maintain their perfect start to the 2019 season. The Reds have only scored 20+ points in a game once in the last four years, and the model has the Highlanders winning straight up in 96% of 10,000 match simulations. View the model’s suggested bets.

Sunwolves vs Waratahs

When & Where: Saturday 23rd February, 2.15PM, Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium

Keep an eye on: Israel Folau
The Wallaby fullback gained 106 metres last week against the Hurricanes defence, so look for him to have a big game in Japan. Folau will enjoy the space on offer against the brittle Sunwolves defence and there might be some value in backing him to get across the try line.

Match Comment
The inclusion of Kurtley Beale at 12 will see Karmichael Hunt shift to 13 in the NSW backline. After a turbulent offseason, Beale will be desperate to repay the faith shown in him by coach Darryl Gibson with a polished performance.  Bernard Foley shouldered the blame last week, missing a crucial kick in the Waratah’s 1-point loss to the Hurricanes. While Foley copped a public flogging, the weak performance of the Waratah’s back row at the breakdown allowed the Hurricanes back into the contest. Expect the Waratahs to flex their credentials against the wooden spoon favourites this week.  

Who Wins & Why?
The Waratahs have never lost to the Sunwolves, averaging 61 points scored over three matches. The 2019 draw hasn’t been kind to the Sunwolves with their opening game in Singapore, followed by another home match in Japan. There’s a massive gulf in class between the sides and the visitors should have no dramas in claiming a bonus point win.

Betting Value
Unsurprisingly, the model and I agree on this clash, with the Waratahs well and truly ahead in the H2H stakes, following 10,000 match simulations. The Waratahs have notched 50+ points in their only three meetings with the Sunwolves and I'll be looking for some value in backing the visitors to cover their 20.5 line. View the model’s suggested bets.

Crusaders vs Hurricanes

When & Where: Saturday 23rd February, 4.35PM, Rugby League Park

Keep an eye on: Manasa Mataele
The 22-year old winger bagged a crucial double in the 24-22 win over the Blues in Auckland. Last week’s haul of two tries takes his total to eight tries in his last eight Super Rugby appearances.

Match Comment
The Crusaders escaped from Auckland with a two-point win, while the Hurricanes enjoyed a slice of luck in the opening round with a 20-19 win over the Waratahs. Both sides will be eager to get an early edge in the season, with the likelihood of clashing again in the finals. The Crusaders are chasing their 17th straight Super Rugby win, with the Hurricanes set to be without Beauden Barrett this week. With Richie Mo'unga steering the ship for the Crusaders at flyhalf, they should be too strong at home for a Hurricanes side that rode their luck in the opening round.

Who Wins & Why?
The defending champs showed their class with a hard-fought win against the Blues and will be chasing their third consecutive win over the Hurricanes, which includes the 2018 Super Rugby semi-final. The Hurricanes have lost three of their last five matches going back to 2018 and will struggle without Beauden Barrett to get the points in Christchurch.

Betting Value
The model loves the serial winner this week and has the Crusaders winning in 81% of simulations, to maintain their perfect start in 2019. View the model’s suggested bets.

Brumbies vs Chiefs

When & Where: Saturday 23rd February, 6.45PM, GIO Stadium

Keep an eye on: Anton Lienert-Brown
The New Zealand international was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs in their opening round 30-27 loss to the Highlanders. Brown had five offloads against the Highlanders and set an opening round record, beating 10 defenders last week.

Match Comment
Damien McKenzie returns for the Chiefs as they look to celebrate Brodie Retallick’s 100th Super Rugby match with a win across the Tasman. The Brumbies were undone by a slick Rebels side at GIO Stadium, succumbing to a 34-27 loss. Wallaby star David Pocock is set to miss the crucial clash with injury, leaving the Brumbies pack light around the breakdown. The Brumbies have lost four of their last six matches at home and another loss here will make finals football a difficult assignment.

Who Wins & Why?
The Chiefs have won their last four games against the Brumbies including a 48-23 win in Canberra. The return of McKenzie gives the Chiefs the edge in the playmaker stakes against a Brumbies side struggling for confidence.

Betting Value
The market is clearly a fan of history, favouring the Chiefs with implied odds at 71% in the H2H stakes, but the model doesn't see things quite that simply. View the model’s suggested bets.

Sharks vs Blues

When & Where: Saturday 23rd February, 11.05PM, Kings Park Stadium

Keep an eye on: Akira Ioane
The blindside flanker put in a barnstorming performance last week with 20 carries against the Crusaders. Ioane gained 100 metres and managed to grab a try in his side’s 24-22 loss to the 2018 Super Rugby champions.

Match Comment
The Blues were desperately unlucky to fall short against the Crusaders last week and face a real challenge against the Sharks in Durban. The Sharks put the Sunwolves to the sword last week in a 45-10 win in Singapore. The Sharks are riding a hot streak at home, winning their last five games on the bounce going back to the 2018 season. On paper, this is looming as an entertaining game of rugby, but it’s hard to look past the Sharks form at home.

Who Wins & Why?
The Sharks have dominated these clashes, winning 10 of the last 11 matches against the Blues. The Blues haven’t tasted victory against the Sharks in Durban since 2004, and they’ll struggle to match the intensity of the home side at the back end of this clash.

Betting Value
The model is happy to get back in the water with the Sharks this week, finding some value on a near 50/50 market, with the line set at just 1.5 points. View the model’s suggested bets.

Stormers vs Lions

When & Where: Saturday 24th February, 1.15AM, Newlands Stadium

Keep an eye on: Marnus Schoeman
The openside flanker became the first Lions forward to score a hat trick in his side’s 25-16 win over Jaguares. His effort in the opening round was just the 11th time that a forward had scored a hat trick in Super Rugby history.

Match Comment
The Stormers 2019 campaign got off to the worst possible start, with a 40-3 loss at the hands of the Bulls. Things don’t get any easier for the South African outfit as they face a Lions side coming off an away win over Jaguares in Argentina. Malcolm Marx and Carlu Sadie dominated at the breakdown with three turnovers each. The Lions intensity around the ruck should be too strong for a Stormers side that hasn’t tamed the Lions since 2014.

Who Wins & Why?
The Lions have comfortably had the edge over the Stormers, winning their last four matches by an average margin of 34 points. The Lions have won 22 of their last 23 matches against South African opposition and should have no issues notching a valuable bonus point win at Newlands Stadium this weekend.

Betting Value
The model was impressed by the Lions performance in the opening round and has them recording a 12+ point victory at 31% in the big win/little win market. Some value on the H2H market comparing the model's simulation results against the market's implied probabilities. View the model’s suggested bets.

Jaguares vs Bulls

When & Where: Saturday 24th February, 7.40AM, Estadio José Amalfitani

Keep an Eye on: Handre Pollard
The South African No.10 had a day out last week with the boot, with a perfect record of 8/8 kicks.

Match Comment
The Bulls were ruthless in dispatching the Stormers 40-3 in the opening round of 2019, while Jaguares were undone at home by the Lions in a 25-16 loss. The home side performed admirably against one of the competition’s heavyweights. The Bulls have been dismal on the road, losing 13 of their last 15 matches outside of South Africa.

Who Wins & Why?
Jaguares have been brilliant at the set piece, winning 67 of 68 lineouts across their last six matches. The Argentinian side grew in confidence last season and their discipline at the breakdown and set piece should see them edge the Bulls in a single digit win.

Betting Value
There’s nothing like playing in front of your home fans and the model has tipped the Jaguares at 55% in the H2H stakes, following 10,000 match simulations. View the model’s suggested bets.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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