Down The Blindside: Super Rugby Round 1

The game played in heaven returns with the 2019 Super Rugby season kicking off on Friday night. The opening match of the 2019 Super Rugby season is an all-Kiwi affair with the Chiefs facing off against the Highlanders.

A World Cup year will give the Australian sides some hope of arresting their horrendous record against their Trans-Tasman cousins. No Australian side has lifted the Super Rugby title since the Waratahs trumped the Crusaders to claim the 2014 title. The Aussie title push begins with Brumbies hosting the Rebels on a cold Friday night in the nation’s capital.

For all the official Stats Insider model projections, visit the Super Rugby hub, where you can access all the Stats Insider match predictions and regular content. Scroll down to continue to our Round  Preview.

Chiefs vs Highlanders

When & Where: Friday 15th February, 5.35PM, FMG Stadium

Keep an eye on: Brodie Retallick
The giant All Black is set to lead the side in the season opener, with co-captain Sam Kane on the sidelines indefinitely as he recovers from a neck injury sustained against the Springboks in 2018. Retallick offers a wealth of experience and stability at the set piece, with coach Colin Cooper relying on Retallick to lead a young squad in his second season in charge of the Chiefs.

Match Comment
The Chiefs will be eager to continue their recent dominance of the Highlanders in the opener of the 2019 season. Injuries have forced the home side’s hand with Colin Cooper naming four debutants to take the field against the Highlanders. The Highlanders have plenty of firepower out wide with Ben Smith and Waisake Naholo, but the lack of an experienced No.10 means they’ll struggle for consistency against the home side’s powerful forward pack.

Who wins and why?
The grunt of Retallick and the x-factor of debutant Orbyn Leger in the backline gives the Chiefs the edge in what should be a good old-fashioned scrap to open the 2019 season. The Chiefs have won their last three matches against the Highlanders on the bounce. Home ground advantage has been a real factor in the land of the long white cloud, with the home side claiming six of the last 14 matches in New Zealand derbies.

Betting Value: Three out of the last four matches between these two sides have been decided by 10 points or less. Another thriller is on the cards with the Chiefs to win this clash by 1-12points. View the model's suggested bets.

Brumbies vs Rebels

When & Where: Friday 15th February, 7.45PM, GIO Stadium

Keep an eye on: Quade Cooper
David Pocock and Will Genia have started their preseason singing the praises of former Reds five-eighth Quade Cooper. While the mercurial No.10 has spent the last 12 months banished to the club rugby scene, it remains to be seen if he can recapture the type of form that took the Reds to the 2011 Super Rugby crown. A solid performance from Cooper this season could give the Rebels a taste of Super Rugby Finals action for the first time.

Match Comment
Wallaby David Pocock hasn’t laced up the boots since November and is set to take the field on Friday night against the Rebels. The Wallaby veteran slots into a Brumbies pack that includes debutant James Slipper in the front row. Christian Lealiifano is set to skipper the side that includes former Chiefs star Toni Pulu. Quade Cooper’s combination with halfback Will Genia holds the key for the visitors. While it won’t be pretty this early in the season, the quality of the Rebels backline gives them the edge.

Who wins and why?
History favours the Rebels on Friday night against the Brumbies. The Rebels have won five of their last six opening fixtures and were good enough last season to claim a three-point win against the Brumbies in the corresponding match. Cooper’s inclusion has the potential to be a masterstroke for David Wessels. A single digit win to the Rebels is on the cards.  

Betting Value: The model has identified a small edge on the Rebels covering the +3.5pt spread, with the home side winning straight up in 68% of our 10,000 match simulations. View the model's suggested bets.  

Blues vs Crusaders

When & Where: Saturday 16th February, 5.35PM, Eden Park

Keep an eye on: Reiko Ioane
New Zealand Rugby threw everything including the kitchen sink at keeping Ioane at home in a World Cup year, and the youngster will be expected to fire against the defending Super Rugby Champions.  

Match Comment
Leon McDonald faces a real test of character in his first match in charge against the defending Super Rugby Champions. Former All-Black Tana Umaga couldn’t save the Blues in 2018 and expect McDonald to face some similar issues. The Crusaders will waste no time getting warmed up this season, having dominated the home side since 2014. Kieran Reid is set to miss the opening clash for the Crusaders who should be untroubled in a one-sided encounter.

Who wins and why?
The Crusaders have won their last eight consecutive matches against the home side. While the Blues dare to dream, it’s unlikely they’ll be causing an upset against the competition’s benchmark side. The Crusaders scored more tries in the opening twenty minutes of matches than any other side in the competition, and a customary fast start by the defending champs would bury an Auckland side who were woeful in 2018.

Betting Value: The model loves the away team in Round 1. The Crusaders have won 15 of their last 17 matches by 8 points or more and the model favours them covering the 7.5pt spread. View the model's suggested bets.

Waratahs vs Hurricanes

When & Where:  Saturday 16th February, 7.45PM, Brookvale Oval

Keep an eye on: Karmichael Hunt
The Waratahs swapped out Taqele Naiyaravoro for Karmichael Hunt in the off-season. Naiyaravoro was the third highest try scorer in 2018 Super Rugby. It will be interesting to see what Hunt is able to add the Waratahs backline.

Match Comment
Adam Ashley-Cooper is set to partner Karmichael Hunt in the centres for the Waratahs. The veteran duo will be relying on their 400 games of first grade experience, against a Hurricanes side oozing class. Bernard Foley was the leading point scorer in Super Rugby in 2018 and his consistency with the boot has the potential to help the Waratahs cause an upset at Brookvale Oval.  

Who wins and why?
The Hurricanes have won nine of their last 11 matches in Australia, including their last four clashes against the Waratahs. These two sides haven’t clashed since 2017 and the Hurricanes will be hoping to avoid back to back losses in Australia.

Betting Value: Not surprisingly the model has the Hurricanes well and truly ahead in the H2H stakes following 10,000 match simulations. With the match being played at Brookvale Oval there is some value in backing the home team to cover a -7.5pt spread. View the model's suggested bets.

Sunwolves vs Sharks

When & Where: Saturday 16th February, 9.55PM, Singapore National Stadium

Keep an eye on: Hayden Parker
The New Zealand playmaker proved his value for the Japanese outfit last season. Parker converted an incredible 96% of his shots on goal, only missing two kicks in 13 matches in 2018.

Match Comment
The Sunwolves have been pragmatic with their Super Rugby expectations in 2019. While they improved with three wins over South African opposition at home, they’ll find the Sharks much tougher opposition. The Sharks have pummelled the Sunwolves in their last three clashes and it’s difficult to see the Sunwolves having an impact in their season opening clash in Singapore.  

Who wins and why?
The Sharks have won all three of their clashes against the Sunwolves by double digits, and would be expecting that trend to continue. The Sunwolves were beaten by the Sharks in the corresponding match last season by 28 points, and another one-sided clash is on the cards for Super Rugby’s youngest franchise.

Betting Value: Unsurprisingly the model is happy to go swimming with the Sharks on this occasion, backing them in at an 81% chance H2H. View the model's suggested bets.

Bulls vs Stormers

When & Where: Sunday 17th February, 2.15am, Loftus Versfeld  

Keep an eye on: Handre Pollard
Handre Pollard is one to watch for the Bulls in the opening clash of 2019. Pollard missed only eight kicks from 61 shots at goal in 2018.

Match Comment
Neither of these sides set the world on fire in 2018. The Stormers failed to notch a win on the road in their last three local derbies, while the Bulls also struggled for consistency. The Bulls have lost three of their last four matches, after leading at halftime. The Bulls showed plenty of potential in 2018, with an improved defensive line the key to bettering their conference rivals in the opening match of the season.  

Who wins and why?
The Stormers have won seven of their last nine matches against the Bulls, going back to 2014. While the Stormers have history on their side, the Bulls have won two of the last three matches held at Loftus Versfeld. Home ground advantage should be enough to get the Bulls over the line in a low scoring encounter.

Betting Value: The model is following the market in this one, giving the Bulls the edge in this clash. There isn’t a lot for the Stormers, who have struggled for consistency on the road.  View the model's suggested bets.

Jaguares vs Lions

When & Where: Sunday 17th February, 8.40am, Estadio Jose Amalftiani

Keep an eye on: Bautista Delguy
The South American fullback was a revelation for Jaguares in 2018, with 10 tries in 17 appearances. Delguy enjoyed a breakout year helping the Argentinian side to their maiden Super Rugby Finals appearance.

Match Comment
The home team enjoyed their maiden appearance in the Super Rugby Finals in 2018, coming of age under new coach Mario Ledesma. Nicholas Sanchez and Bautista Delguy enjoyed a stellar 2018 season and there’s no reason why that can’t continue in 2019. The Lions have finished as runner-up last season and have struggled for positive results outside of South Africa.

Who wins and why?
Jaguares enjoyed their maiden Super Rugby Finals appearance in 2018 and won’t be daunted by facing the Lions in the opening round. In the last seven clashes the home side has prevailed and Jaguares will be chasing a hattrick of wins at home against the Lions.

Betting Value: There’s minor value only across the board from the model following 10,000 match simulations. Jaguares have won their last three home matches against the Lions, with the perennial Super Rugby bridesmaids losing their last four consecutive matches outside of South Africa. View the model's suggested bets.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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