The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL - Divisional Round
Last updated: Jan 11, 2019, 5:59AM | Published: Jan 11, 2019, 5:59AM
Wildcard Weekend saw the continuation of a golden run by underdogs in the playoffs (underdogs are now 14-1 against the spread since Atlanta choked/gave the Super Bowl away).
Three road teams won last week with Dallas being the only favourite to win outright. This is the second straight season where underdogs have gone 4-0 against the spread in the wildcard round.
The Divisional round though presents a unique experience in that half of the teams have had the bye, will get to play at home and typically against teams with a worse record. As bettors we have to be smart about what that means and how that will affect the outcome of these games.
In this edition of The Punt Return Podcast, Darryl Data & Wye open the show recapping a terrific week of results for the show. Wye went 4-0 against the spread in his selections and correctly picked Clemson winning the National Championship game while the model celebrated the Under 48.5 in the Indianapolis/Houston game and Eagles +6.
Before going game by game with their picks and bets, the show mentions some key statistics about divisional weekend including:
· Home teams are 24-35-1 against the spread in the divisional round since 2003
· Away teams are 13-27 straight up in the last 40 Divisional Playoff Matchups.
· Favoured teams laying a touchdown or more are 46-38-3 against the spread in this round of the playoffs
The first game of Divisional Weekend sees the Indianapolis Colts travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. We have a classic Man vs Machine in this game with Darryl and Stats Insider Model liking the Chiefs -5 here. The model has the Chiefs covering the 5 point spread 59% of the time creating a nice 9% edge. Wye like the Colts here & states:
“Obviously the Chiefs are immense on offense, they rank first in scoring and yardage this season but it’s their defense that is very worrisome. The Chiefs defense has surrenders the second most passing yards per game this season, gives up the 9th most points per game and allows an average of 5.0 yards per rush attempt on defense, 31st in the NFL. Add in to the mix that they give up over 8 penalties per game and the Colts have a good chance to win this game. The Colts just ran all over the best run defense by DVOA in the NFL last week with Luck tossing nearly 200 yards in the first half. The Chiefs have a horrendous record in the playoffs, finishing just 1-11 straight up and against the spread in their last 12 games. The Colts are 7-1 against the spread straight up and against the spread in their last 8 road games against Kansas City. This comes down to a field goal.”
In the second game, the LA Rams host the Dallas Cowboys and for the second straight week the guys are all over Ezekiel Elliott for Daily Fantasy. From a betting perspective, the model has a play on the spread and Wye finally leans towards a favourite but has some concerns:
“A worrying trend for the Cowboys is their record away from home. They’re 3-5 away from Jerry World & dome teams that are forced to play outdoors in the playoffs have not succeeded (12-44 Straight Up). The Cowboys have lost 7 straight playoff road games and are 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Their defense stacks up very well here and should go a long way to shutting down the Rams running game but the Rams will not stay one dimensional like Seattle and is far more potent having topped 400 yards off offense in every home game except one this season. They key for Dallas is Zeke. The Rams are the worst team in the league against the run so the Cowboys need to give him close to 30 touches and keep the Goff Gurley combination off the field.”
In what should be the best game of divisional weekend, the road warriors Los Angeles Chargers travel to New England. This matchup is the classic ‘something’s gotta give’ match with the Patriots boasting an undefeated home record this season and the Chargers are undefeated outside of California. Despite having the better record and quarterback this season, the Chargers find themselves as 4-point underdogs as Foxboro has not been kind to it’s playoff visitors over the years. Both the SI Model and Wye lean towards the Chargers:
“The Patriots records in the Belichick-Brady record are quite scary. They are 19-3 straight up and 12-9-1 against the spread in 22 home playoff games since 2000. The Patriots are also 15-0 straight up and 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games as home favourites. Despite some talk around their form the Patriots still head into this game ranked inside the top 10 in points scored and points allowed. The Chargers are built to take down the Patriots though, with incredible pass rushing duo that will allow them to rush four linemen without blitzing. This formula was used by Denver with Von Miller & the Giants with Justin Tuck in their recent success against Tom Brady. When Brady has been sacked 3 or more times, the Patriots are 39-43-4 against the spread. Ingram and Bosa are the key.”
The final game of the divisional round is a rematch between the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles. Six weeks ago the Saints hammered the Eagles 48-7 in what looked like the end of the defending Super Bowl Champions. Since then the Eagles have dramatically improved and the Saints have struggled a bit while still securing the number 1 seed. The Saints go into this as 8 point favourites, the Stats Insider Model would like the Saints here at the flat 7 while Wye is leaning towards the Eagles at the +8:
“The Eagles find themselves in familiar territory. They’re yet again road dogs with Nick Foles at the helm. Since their blowout loss to this Saints side in Week 11, the Eagles have been on a roll and although they relied on some luck last week, it was still an impressive performance by both their Offensive and Defensive lines. It’s going to take a lot more effort on defense to slow down Drew Brees but Nick Foles should have an easier time moving the ball against this defense in a dome. The Saints are 5-0 at home in the playoffs since Sean Payton took over as Head Coach in 2006 have won four of their last five against the Eagles . While we expect a Saints victory you’re getting some value on the +8 given it was +7 back in Week 11 and this Eagles teamshas improved dramatically.”
This episode of the Punt Return concludes with the guys discussing their favourite DFS plays for the weekend including Travis Kelce, Robert Woods & Nelson Agholor.
