The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL Conference Championships

Barring wildcard weekend, the 2018 postseason has gone completely chalk with the four top seeds filling the final four spots of the season. This is the first time since 2015 that the NFL playoffs have featured the No. 1 Seed vs No. 2 Seed in both the AFC & NFC championship games. One more interesting wrinkle for this weekend is that both games are rematches of regular season fixtures that featured 80 or more points. 

In the Conference Championship edition of The Punt Return Podcast, Darryl Data & Wye open the show recapping their average results in the divisional round. The Rams being the only team that they both won on. Kansas City helped Darryl and the model to a winning week while the Chargers & Colts let Wye down. 

LISTEN:

Before going game by game with their picks, bets and DFS plays, the show mentions some interesting tidbits about this particular round of the playoffs, including:

• The last time a team went to the Super Bowl that won a road playoff game at all was the 2012 season. Home teams in the conference championships are 10-0 over the past five seasons and 8-2 ATS. The last two were both the Ravens and 49ers in that 2012 season.
• It’s the first time since the merger that the league’s four highest-scoring teams are the last four remaining in the postseason. 
• All 4 remaining head coaches have won the coach of the year award.

The first game of championship Sunday will be held in the Superdome with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The SI Model likes the Rams here at the +3.5 point spread, with a considerable edge in favour of the Rams. Wye is on the same page but finds this game incredibly tough to play, stating: 

“The Week 9 matchup between these two teams went in favour of the Saints, that’s why this game is being held in New Orleans. These two teams are drastically different now with different injuries across the board but importantly the return of Aqib Talib. Talib should do a better job of containing Michael Thomas who exploited the Rams for 211 yards in their last meeting. Offensive lines will be the story of this game as the Rams dominance last week proving to the difference maker, if they can get things going on the ground it will allow Jared Goff to establish play action and also keep the Saints off the field. Aaron Donald’s matchup against an injured Andrus Peat will be pivotal, Brees' difference in performance when pressured as opposed to free of pressure is drastic (the third-greatest in the NFL). The Saints defense has dramatically improved since midseason but their offense has been in a bit of a lull and has resulted in a 1-5 against the spread record across their last six games. While I think the Saints win this game, going to 7-0 all time in Sean Payton home playoff games, I’m expecting a close one and the Rams to cover the 3.5 point spread.” 

 The finale of Championship Sunday will be held in the elements at Arrowhead stadium with the Patriots facing the Chiefs on the road. The model has some small leans in this one but given the varying weather reports, it’ll be best to check this one on game day. Wye is firm in his belief that we’ll see the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl, labelling the Patriots as the bet of the weekend despite some worrying road trends: 

“The Patriots haven’t won a road playoff game since 2007, they’re 0-3 on those occasions with all three coming at the hands (or arm) of Peyton Manning. The Patriots do though, thrive as an underdog in recent years with a 7-1 straight up and against the spread record in their last eight games as a dog. The biggest storyline in this game will be the Patriots struggle on the road. They’ve lost 5 games non playoff teams and are averaging 12 fewer points per game on offense and allowing 6 more points on defense. The splits are quite phenomenal with Net Yards Per Play being 2nd at home and 26th away, Red Zone TD Scoring % is 6th at home & 26th away & opponents 3rd down conversion percentage is 3rd at home and 27th away. The Patriots defense ranks 2nd at home in DVOA defense and 31st on the road. So why the Patriots? Well Bill Belichick. He put on an absolute coaching clinic last week and should do the same here by slowing down Pat Mahomes. He is 6-2 all time against Andy Reid and found great success in their Week 7 matchup using 21 personnel. The Chiefs defense is the NFL’s worst defense against that formation and it’s the formation that gets the best out of Sony Michel on the ground and James White through the air.” 
 

This episode of the Punt Return includes the guys analysis of the DFS slate with Data Darryl giving you the Fantasy Insider Lineup Cruncher’s best value play.

Want something extra?

Listen above to hear Wye giving out some random referee stats!