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NFL Preview: Week 14

After 10 of the 16 outsiders covered the spread last week, of which seven of them won outright, we are changing our approach for the tail end of the 2018/19 season. As the season winds down, as do our plays as it is a lot tougher to get a proper read on teams that are all but out of the playoff race. Yes, coaches & players are still trying for their jobs and future but it is still a lot different than playing for the postseason. 

So from here on out, instead of this column being the man vs the machine, the Woot and Wye team are going to join forces with the Stats Insider model and give you our best for the week.

Here are three of the best plays for Week 14 of the NFL season:

THE GAME: BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Kansas City -6.5

THE EDGE: +5%

This fixture sees the NFL’s top-scoring Ravens defense travel to Arrowhead Stadium to clash with the league’s top-scoring Chiefs offense. Last week, the Chiefs put a very controversial week behind them with a 40-33 road victory against the lowly Oakland Raiders while the Ravens moved to 3-0 with Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback with a road victory against the Atlanta Falcons. 

The bookmakers currently have their probabilities at 50/50 at the 6.5 point spread. The Stats Insider Predictive Model’s 10,000 simulations of the match has spotted an edge in Kansas City’s favour. The Model has the Chiefs covering the -6.5 point spread 55% of the time which indicates some value on them this week. 

It’s going to be interesting to see how the Chiefs offense fares against a proper defense without Kareem Hunt but they have a juggernaut at home this season with a league-high average scoring margin of 16.2 points. It’s hard to see a Baltimore offense, that currently wouldn’t look out of place in the Big Ten, keeping up with this Chiefs offense. 

Baltimore have run the ball extremely well but may be forced to abandon that to keep up with the Chiefs offense that averages 37 points per game. We expect the Ravens defense to offer some resistance but eventually, Mahomes and this Andy Reid offense will get the breakthrough they need and continue a strong 4-2 against the spread record at home against Baltimore with another cover. 


THE GAME: CINCINNATI BENGALS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

WHEN: Monday 8:05am AEST

THE PLAY: Under 48

THE EDGE: +4% 

This match sees the banged-up Bengals travel to the StubHub Center to take on the electric Chargers in what is the biggest spread of Week 14. Fresh off an impressive comeback victory in Primetime against a strong Steelers side, the bookies have installed Los Angeles as 14 point favourites against a Jeff Driskel led Cincinnati outfit. That’s just five more points that Philip Rivers has kids... 

While “The Woot and Wye Show” like the Chargers to cover this massive spread, we are focusing on the total in this one as this is where the Stats Insider Model has established some minor value. The SI Model simulations as presented a +4% edge on the Under 48 total match points with it hitting 54% of the time. 

All signs point to the over in this one as the Bengals rank near the bottom in every single defensive category and have allowed over 35 points per game across their last six. They’re an absolute mess on that side of the ball. So why the Under? Well since Andy Dalton & AJ Green have left the lineup, they’re also an absolute mess on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Bengals are 27th in the NFL in points per game across their last three games with Jeff Driskel managing just 10 points against the Broncos last week. The Chargers defense, now armed with Joey Bosa, is just as dangerous as Denver’s and has the potential to pitch a shut-out here. The total has gone Under in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games against the Chargers and we think this one will make it five of six.

THE GAME: DETROIT LIONS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

WHEN: Monday 8:25am AEST

THE PLAY: Arizona +3

THE EDGE: +3%

Week 14 has plenty of great games with playoff implications including Eagles @ Dallas, Vikings @ Seahawks and Rams @ Bears. This clash is certainly not one of them. The 3-9 Cardinals, fresh off their best road victory of the past two seasons play host to the lacklustre Lions who are sitting at 4-8. 

This line has been sitting at 2.5 points all week but has just recently moved to a flat three presenting some value. It cannot be overstated how valuable that half point is in Arizona’s favour. While this game won’t be high on the priority list to watch, the Stats Insider model still found a minor edge on the 3 point spread. The SI model simulations has the Cardinals +3 as a 3% edge with them covering 53% of the time. That number could shift much higher if the line moves again to +3.5

While the Cardinals really struggle on offense, their defense is easily the best unit in this game. They sit 12th in defensive DVOA and are an impressive 9th in DVOA in pass defense. The Lions are lacking serious firepower on offense after trading away Golden Tate, losing Marvin Jones to injury and will likely be missing stud rookie running back Kerryon Johnson. Patrick Peterson should do a reasonable job shadowing Kenny Golladay for most of this game. 

Arizona should look to control this game at home with a strong ground game against a Detroit defense that surrenders 120 rushing yards a game. The Cardinals only put up 20 points in their victory last week but it might be enough here with the Lions failing to score 20 points in four of their last six games. Detroit is 0-8 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games in Arizona, we think that perfect against the spread record will remain in this one.

NOTE: We have plenty more discussion and plays available on our podcast, check out The Punt Return Podcast


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Adam Joseph

Manchester United diehard, Oklahoma City Thunder tragic, New England Patriots fanboy and Carlton Blues sufferer. I like last minute goals, three pointers in transition, unlikely comebacks and underdog stories. Tweet way too much at @AdamJosephSport.

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