NBA Preview: Day 65

On today's NBA agenda, the New York Knicks take on the Philadelphia 76ers, the Charlotte Hornets host the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New Orleans Pelicans play the scorching Milwaukee Bucks.

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our NBA hub, where you can get full access to all our NBA predictions plus more regular content. Want to know more about how our edges work? Read our "What is the Edge?" article for a full explanation.

New York @ Philadelphia

Time: 11am, Thursday December 20th

Market: New York +12

A struggling New York Knicks heads to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers, having won just one of their last eight games. The Sixers meanwhile have problems of their own, having won just one of their last four, including bad losses to Brooklyn, Indiana and San Antonio. Both teams will be looking to bounce back in this one.

Whilst the bookmakers have their probabilities at 50/50, Stats Insider predictive model's 10,000 simulations have the Knicks covering the +12 point spread 56% of the time, which indicates some good value on New York today.

New York's 5-13 on the road record is somewhat misleading, considering they are 10-8 ATS in those games. They've made it more competitive than first appears, thanks to an 18th ranked Offensive Rating, posting 106.3 points per 100 possessions.

It won't be easy though, against a balanced Sixers team that's top 10 across all three major metrics. Philly are 10th in Offensive Rating (112.1 points per 100), 10th in Defensive Rating (105.3 points per 100) and 8th in Net Rating (+6.8 points per 100). Expect the Sixers to bounce back with a win, but the Knicks cover that 12 point spread.

Cleveland @ Charlotte

Time: 11am AEST, Thursday December 20th 

Market: Cleveland +13

A Cleveland team buoyant from Larry Nance Jr's game-winner last night in Indiana heads to Charlotte on a back to back to take on the Hornets. Since firing Ty Lue after their 0-6 start, the Cavs are 8-17 under Larry Drew and have been hit and miss all season long. Charlotte are struggling to find rhythm, either finding themselves in win streaks or lose streaks but never really breaking through.

While bookmakers implied probabilities are set at 50/50 for this game, the SI model simulations have the Cavs covering the 13 point spread 54% of the time, showing a minor edge favouring Cleveland today.

Cleveland are a miserable 3-11 on the road, but a much more respectable 8-6 ATS in those games. Charlotte meanwhile have been good at home, 10-7 overall and 9-8 ATS. This game comes down to whether you believe Cleveland's bottom ten Offense, Defense and Net Rating, can compete with Charlotte's 12th ranked Offensive Rating (112.0 points per 100).

For me, 13 points is a crazily generous line, and I'm taking Cleveland all day, even on a back to back. Now let's hope they can deliver.

New Orleans @ Milwaukee

Time: 12pm AEST, Thursday December 20th

Market: New Orleans +9

The streaking Milwaukee Bucks host the New Orleans Pelicans in an intriguing matchup of two of the league's alpha dogs, as Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo go head to head. Milwaukee are cruising at 20-9 on the season, whilst New Orleans are 14-15 overall and have alternated wins and losses in their last 10 games as they struggle to find health and rhythm.

Bookmakers have their probabilities at 50/50, while the Stats Insider simulations have the Pelicans covering the +9 point spread 53% of the time, so if you can get even value, it might be worth taking.

New Orleans have struggled on the road, 4-11 on the season but 6-9 ATS in those games. Their Offensive Rating (108.9 points per 100) is 13th overall, their Defensive Rating is 20th (111.3 points per 100), whilst their Net Rating is 18th (-2.4 points per 100).

Milwaukee have thrived at home, 13-3 overall but just 10-6 ATS. They're top ranked across the board, 4th in Offensive Rating (114.0 points per 100), 4th in Defensive Rating (101.5 points per 100) and 1st in Net Rating (+12.5 points per 100).

The Bucks likely win this and have too much shooting and depth for the Pelicans, but Davis can keep this close. Take the 9 points on offer.

Season Record: 5-4

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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