NBA Preview: Day 63

On today's NBA agenda, Chicago travels to Oklahoma City as the Bulls take on the Thunder, Houston hosts Utah before Memphis heads to the Bay to go head to head with Golden State.

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our NBA hub, where you can get full access to all our NBA predictions plus more regular content. Want to know more about how our edges work? Read our "What is the Edge?" article for a full explanation.

Chicago @ Oklahoma City

Time: 12pm AEST, Tuesday December 18

Market: Chicago +12.5

A struggling and in turmoil Chicago heads to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder, who the Bulls beat a couple of weeks ago in an upset win in Chicago. The Bulls have lost 10 of their last 12, but beat San Antonio on the road last time out. The Thunder are doing well at 18-10, but have lost 2 of their last 3.

Whilst the bookmakers have their probabilities at 50/50, Stats Insider predictive model's 10,000 simulations have the Bulls covering the +12.5 point spread 54% of the time, which indicates some value on Chicago today.

Chicago are 3-12 on the road this season, but are 6-8-1 ATS in those games, so they've been able to keep it close despite so many road losses. This is despite being dead last in Offensive Rating (97.9 points per 100 possessions) and 27th in Net Rating (-10.2 points per 100), but due in part to their 11th ranked Defensive Rating (108.1 points per 100).

Oklahoma City have been very good at home, 11-3 on the season, but just 8-6 ATS in those games. Their Offensive Rating is middle of the pack (17th, 109.3 points per 100), but their Defensive Rating is spectacular (101.3 points per 100), ranked 3rd, whilst their Net Rating is good for 4th in the NBA (+8.0 points per 100).

Oklahoma City should win this one rather comfortably, but Chicago can keep it inside 13 points. Take 'em.

Utah @ Houston

Time: 12pm AEST, Tuesday December 18

Market: Utah +4.5

Two of the league's most disappointing teams matchup today, as the 14-14 Houston Rockets (11th in the Western Conference) host the 14-16 Utah Jazz (13th). Both teams are starting to find their feet again, but need to find some momentum heading into Christmas and the New Year.

While bookmakers implied probabilities are set at 50/50 for this game, the SI model simulations have the Jazz covering the +4.5 point spread 53% of the time, showing a minor edge favouring Utah today. 

Utah have had the league's toughest schedule so far this season, with 19 games already on the road, which they are 9-10 in overall, and 8-11 ATS. Their Defensive Rating is a typically brilliant 3rd overall (104.8 points per 100), but their Offensive Rating (25th, 102.9 points per 100) is holding them back, meaning their Net Rating is just 16th (-1.6 points per 100).

Houston have a respectable 7-5 home record (6-6 ATS), but it doesn't quite match the expectations set for them at the start of the season. Their Offensive Rating has been what you'd expect of a Mike D'Antoni Offense, 2nd overall (114.4 points per 100). Their Defensive Rating is a disaster though, ranked 29th (113.8 points per 100), leaving their Net Rating 20th overall (+0.5 points per 100).

Utah are rounding into better form as their schedule eases, and I expect them to continue their renaissance today. Take the points.

Memphis @ Golden State

Time: 2:30pm AEST, Tuesday December 18

Market: Memphis +11

The Memphis Grizzlies are cooling down after a red-hot start and will be up against it to make life tough for the Golden State Warriors, whose All-Stars bar DeMarcus Cousins have all returned to the starting lineup. The Grizzlies will need to find a way to make this a grit 'n' grind game as the Warriors find their groove once again with their core four together again.

Bookmakers have their probabilities at 50/50, while the Stats Insider simulations have the Grizzlies covering the +11 point spread 54% of the time, so if you can get even value, it might be worth taking.

Memphis are 7-7 OTR (and 7-7 ATS) so far this season, but the question for them will be can they generate enough offense to keep this one close. Their Defensive Rating is 7th on the road this season (106.4 points per 100), but their Offensive Rating is just 24th (104.6 points per 100). If they can't put up the points, they don't stand a chance.

Golden State have been dominant at home, with a 12-3 overall record. However, they are just 7-8 ATS in those games, as they usually get a generous line to cover. 11 points is a hefty line to cover, and whether Steph Curry finds his stroke and goes off will be key.

I'm backing the Warriors to win, but not to cover as the Grizzlies find a way to keep it close. Take the underdog.

Season Record: 4-2

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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