NBA Preview: Day 58

On today’s NBA agenda, the Brooklyn Nets travel to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers, the Utah Jazz host the Miami Heat, and the Sacramento Kings play the Minnesota Timberwolves at home.

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our NBA hub, where you can get full access to all our NBA predictions plus more regular content. Want to know more about how our edges work? Read our "What is the Edge?" article for a full explanation.

Brooklyn @ Philadelphia

Time: 11am AEST, Thursday December 13

Market: Brooklyn +7

The Brooklyn Nets travel to Philadelphia on a two-game win streak after ending their eight-game losing streak, as the Sixers prepare to take on the Nets potentially without Jimmy Butler, who is nursing a groin injury. Mike Muscala (upper respiratory infection) is also out tonight for Philly.

Whilst the bookmakers have their probabilities at 50/50, Stats Insider predictive model's 10,000 simulations have the Nets covering the +7 point spread 51% of the time, which indicates minor value on Brooklyn today.

It'll be interesting to monitor the Sixers play without Butler, who they're still adjusting to following his trade from Minnesota. Philadelphia has a 14-1 home record, but that is slightly skewed by their 9-6 record ATS in those games. They are ranked in the top 10 across all three main metrics, 10th in Offensive Rating (112.1 points per 100 possessions), 7th in Defensive Rating (103.7 per 100) and 5th in Net Rating (+8.4 per 100).

Brooklyn has a respectable record on the road, however, 6-8 overall and 8-6 ATS in those games. They're ranked 14th in Offensive Rating (107.1 per 100), 10th in Defensive Rating (107.6 per 100) and 12th in Net Rating (-0.5 per 100). Seven feels like a lot of points to be giving Brooklyn, and I trust them with it. Take the points on offer.

Miami @ Utah

Time: 1pm AEST, Thursday December 13

Market: Miami +8.5

The Utah Jazz, currently suffering through the toughest schedule in the NBA, head home to host the Miami Heat as Dwyane Wade's farewell tour continues with his last trip to Salt Lake City. The Heat have won four of their last six, whilst the Jazz are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

While bookmakers implied probabilities are set at 50/50 for this game, the SI model simulations have the Heat covering the +8.5 point spread 51% of the time, showing a minor edge favouring Miami today.

Utah have struggled at home this season, but are beginning to find their feet as their schedule eases. They're 4-6 at home, and 5-5 ATS in those games. Their Offensive Rating has been respectable (11th, 111.9 per 100), but their Defensive Rating (25th, 111.3 per 100) has been disappointing whilst their Net Rating (19th, +0.6 per 100) has been below par.

Despite their overall struggles and injuries, Miami are 6-6 on the road this season and an impressive 8-4 ATS in those games. Their Offensive Rating is middle of the pack (16th, 107.0 per 100), but their solid road form is built upon the 4th best Defensive Rating (104.7 per 100) and subsequent +2.3 per 100 Net Rating, ranked 7th. Utah should continue their season revival with a win, but 8.5 points feels like too many. Take 'em.

Minnesota @ Sacramento

Time: 2pm AEST, Thursday December 13

Market: Sacramento +3.5

The 14-12 Sacramento Kings (yes, 14-12!) host the Minnesota Timberwolves, who sit at 13-14 on the season. After dropping three in a row recently, the Kings have now won four of their last five as they look to continue their surprising early season form. Minnesota look to be in better form than they started the season with, winning six of seven before tough road losses to Portland and Golden State.

Bookmakers have their probabilities at 50/50, while the Stats Insider simulations have the Kings covering the +3.5 point spread 54% of the time, so if you can get even value, it might be worth taking.

Sacramento have been up and down at home this season, 6-5 overall including 7-3-1 ATS in those games. Their Offensive Rating (27th, 103.9 per 100) and Net Rating (24th, -3.1 per 100) are bottom of the barrel, but their Defensive Rating is a much more respectable 107.0 points per 100, ranked 14th.

Minnesota have been absymal on the road, 2-10 on the season, and a slightly better 5-7 ATS. They haven't been good on either end, ranked 19th in Offensive Rating (105.9 per 100), 24th in Defensive Rating (113.0 per 100) and 22nd in Net Rating (-7.1 per 100). The Stats Insider simulations and Timberwolves metrics tell enough of the story - take the points on the Kings.

Season Record: 2-1

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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