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Man vs Machine: NBA Day 48

Sports predictions are a relatively new concept in Australia. As sports fans and punters, we are accustomed to hearing opinions, sometimes mixed in with historical stats and trends, on how a game is likely to pan out. We also form our own expert opinion based on knowledge of the game.

For every sport, we will release Author opinions in these segments, and each week we’ll recap how each side did - the opinion or the data, the head or the heart, THE MAN OR THE MACHINE. 

THIS is how we will show you that the average punter can benefit from Stats Insider, not just the pros. No matter what kind of punter you are - social, regular or serious, Stats Insider has something for you.

Man and Machine went head to head on all three picks on Friday, with Man taking victory 2 to 1. Man's picks ended the week 5-3 overall, including 3-1 in picks where Man and Machine disagreed. Onto this week, as we enter December!

On today's agenda, we'll be targeting the four late games. Utah heads to Miami to take on the Heat, Philadelphia hosts Memphis, the Clippers take on the Mavericks in Dallas and Portland heads to Texas to take on San Antonio.

Memphis @ Philadelphia

The in-form Memphis Grizzlies look to continue their early-season momentum, as they head to Philadelphia to take on a Sixers team still adjusting to life with Jimmy Butler. Marc Gasol's battle with Joel Embiid looms large.

Key Stats and Trends: Philadelphia have been dominant at home this season, posting a 12-1 straight up record, however they are just 7-6 ATS in those contests. They're top 10 across all three major metrics, 9th in Offensive Rating (112.4 points per 100 possessions), 8th in Defensive Rating (104.2 per 100) and 6th in Net Rating (+8.2 per 100).

Memphis' built on strong defense, ranked 5th in road Defensive Rating (106.1 per 100). They're 6-5 on the road this season, and are 6-5 ATS in those games. This one comes down to the bookies laying too many points for my liking. Take the 7.5 on the Grizz.

Key Play: Memphis +7.5

Utah @ Miami

Utah continues it's Eastern Conference road trip with a visit to the Miami Heat, as the Jazz look to further their attempts to get their season back on track. The Heat meanwhile are an average team with a deep roster that lacks in top-shelf quality. But they will have to try and win without Goran Dragic who will miss his 7th consecutive game.

Key Stats and Trends: Utah have been better on the road this season than at home, with a 9-6 road record including an 8-7 ATS record in those games. Their Offensive Rating is disastrous, ranked 24th (103.6 per 100), but their Defensive Rating (2nd, 103.9 per 100) is the bedrock of their solid road form.

Miami are 4-8 at home this season including 4-8 ATS, and are middle of the pack to poor in all three major metrics, ranked 25th in Offensive Rating (105.5 per 100), 16th in Defensive Rating (107.1 per 100) and 21st in Net Rating (-1.6 per 100). I don't like Miami to win, but I think they can cover the 4 point spread. Take it.

Key Play: Miami +4

Portland @ San Antonio

The struggling San Antonio Spurs host the visiting Portland Trail Blazers, whose recent 5 game skid where they've dropped 4 of 5 is a little misleading. Those losses have been to Milwaukee, Golden State, LA Clippers and Denver, all very good teams. This is a talented Portland squad.

Key Stats and Trends: San Antonio are 6-4 at home this season, but just 5-5 ATS in those contests. They are below average across the board, 20th in Offensive Rating (107.3 per 100), 18th in Defensive Rating (108.4 per 100) and 19th in Net Rating (-1.1 per 100).

Portland are 5-5 on the road this season, and 4-6 ATS in those games. Their Offensive Rating of 109.0 per 100 is what makes them potent, however, ranked 10th overall. This game with a 1 point spread is effectively a pick 'em, and I pick Portland. Their offense will get it done, and the Spurs will not be able to punish their below average defense.

Key Play: Portland -1

LA Clippers @ Dallas

The 4th and final game on today's Man vs Machine slate might be the toughest to pick. The red hot and Western Conference leading LA Clippers head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks and former Clipper DeAndre Jordan. There might be a little feeling in this one.

Key Stats and Trends: the Clippers have been great on the road this season, 6-5 overall and 6-5 ATS. This has been keyed by the top Offensive Rating on the road, posting 114.4 points per 100. That helps them to 4th in Net Rating (+2.4 per 100) despite a 22nd ranked Defensive Rating (112.0 per 100).

Dallas have been one of the best teams at home this season, with an 8-2 straight up record and 8-2 ATS. Their Offensive Rating is a scorching 115.7 points per 100, ranked 4th. They're 14th in Defensive Rating (106.7 per 100), and 3rd in Net Rating (+9.0 per 100). The two points on offer with the Mavs is too tempting, I'm taking them. Sorry LA.

Key Play: Dallas +2


Week Record: 0-0 overall, 0-0 vs Machine

Last Week: 5-3 overall, 3-1 vs Machine


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Adam Joseph

Manchester United diehard, Oklahoma City Thunder tragic, New England Patriots fanboy and Carlton Blues sufferer. I like last minute goals, three pointers in transition, unlikely comebacks and underdog stories. Tweet way too much at @AdamJosephSport.

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