The EPL's fickle favourites and reliable roughies

International breaks are always a great time for Premier League reflection, so in addition to our regular EPL content, I thought I’d delve into some data to shine some light on which clubs have been regular ‘multi killers’ and which outsiders have provided the most value in Premier League betting this season. 

2018/19 has been a fairly handy season for favourite backers, with the favourite winning on nearly three-fifths (59.93%) of occasions with practically just a 1% difference between home favourites (60.31%) and away favourites (59.26%). Seven clubs have won at least 60% of their matches as the favourites and these are the ones you ought to be following throughout the remainder of the season:

Arsenal 17-3-2 (77.27% win rate)

Fulham 3-1-1 (60%)

Liverpool 23-7-0 (76.67%)

Manchester City 24-1-4 (82.76%)

Manchester United (65.22%)

Tottenham 18-1-5 (75%)

Watford 7-2-1 (70%)

A few surprises there in addition to the usual suspects: Watford in particular has provided an excellent return as the favourite, especially at home. 

Speaking of home games, when we filter to home matches only, we again find seven clubs to have won greater than 60% of the time as the favourite: 

Arsenal 12-1-0 (92.31%)

Chelsea 8-4-1 (61.54%)

Liverpool 13-2-0 (86.67%)

Manchester City 15-0-1 (93.75%)

Manchester United 8-4-1 (61.54%)

Tottenham 8-1-2 (72.73%)

Watford 6-2-1 (66.67%)

On the contrary, there are also seven clubs who have won fewer than half of their matches as the favourite this season, and they are as follows: 

Brighton 2-2-2 (33.33%)

Burnley 1-2-1 (25%)

Crystal Palace 5-3-4 (41.67%)

Huddersfield 1-1-3 (20%)

Leicester City 7-4-4 (46.67%)

Southampton 2-5-4 (18.18%)

Wolves 8-4-6 (44.44%)

When filtered to home favourites, all of the seven aforementioned clubs - except Wolves - continue to lament percentages below 50%. It is somewhat surprising to see Wolves there given their table position. 

I continue to refer to them as ‘the Robin Hood of the EPL’ (taking points from the rich and giving them to the poor) and the following sentence confirms why. 

One of the poorest performing favourites, Wolves have been one of the more profitable roughies to back in 2018/19.

With ‘double chance’ and ‘draw no bet’ markets a popular option for punters, I have also been tracking the win/draw rates of outsiders throughout the season. Once again, we find seven clubs who have turned out a win/draw rate of 50% or greater this season as an outsider:

Arsenal 1-3-4 (50%)

Chelsea 1-1-1 (66.67%)

Manchester City 0-1-0 (100%)

Manchester United 2-2-3 (57.14%)

Watford 5-5-10 (50%)

West Ham 5-4-8 (52.94%)

Wolves 4-4-4 (66.67%)

And, when filtered to home matches only as the betting outsider, the results are fairly similar:

Arsenal 1-1-1 (66.67%)

Brighton 4-2-3 (66.67%)

Chelsea 1-1-0 (100%)

Everton 1-1-2 (50%)

Manchester United 0-1-0 (100%)

Southampton 3-1-2 (66.67%)

West Ham 2-2-2 (66.67%)

Wolves 1-1-2 (50%)

Not surprisingly, only six clubs have won or drawn at least half of their away matches as the roughie - Crystal Palace (4-2-6), Man City (0-1-0), Man United (2-1-3), Newcastle (1-6-6), Watford (4-5-6) and Wolves (3-3-2). 

Based on those figures alone, perhaps it’s worth backing the Saints to knock off Brighton away next round… we’ll have to wait and see what Stats Insider’s model thinks closer to the day!

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