Premier League Preview: Value galore after the International break
Last updated: Mar 29, 2019, 5:53AM | Published: Mar 29, 2019, 5:52AM
Another international break done and dusted, and we've got a massive SEVEN value plays for EPL football this week!
FULHAM v MANCHESTER CITY
Sat 30 March 11:30pm EDT
The Play: Both to Score - YES
The early game on Saturday provides the first of our six value plays for this round as Fulham provide some surprise value in one of the major markets. The Cottagers have been losing at HT and FT in their last seven league matches thanks to a leaky defence which has shipped two or more goals in their last 11.
They evidently lack the credentials to tackle the best offensive side in the league, particularly when they have stretched out their winning streak to six straight league matches.
However, Manchester City is currently suffering from somewhat of a defensive crisis: Kompany, Mandy and Delph are all ruled out or in doubt for this weekend, leaving Laporte as Guardiola’s only senior centre-back. Fulham are likely to make just one change, with Ryan Sessegnon returning to midfield, with Andre Schurrle not looking likely to play.
Nonetheless, this looks encouraging for a Stats Insider value play for both teams to score in this clash. The head-to-head history only supports the play: amazingly, both teams have scored in Fulham’s last 11 home games with Man City (dating back to 2003/04), with nine of them producing over 2.5 total goals.
Furthermore, Fulham have scored in four of five home clashes against the “big six” clubs, while City have kept just three clean sheets from four away trips against clubs in the bottom half of the table going into this round.
As of the time of writing, the SI model predicts a 57% likelihood of Fulham and City both finding the back of the net, whereas the average market price suggests something much closer to a 50-50 split. That makes for a 6% edge as it stands, and one supported by the stats.
VIEW STATS INSIDER'S FREE MATCH PREDICTIONS
CRYSTAL PALACE v HUDDERSFIELD
Sun 31 March 2:00am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 / Both to Score - YES
Interesting double play from the Stats Insider model here given the stats and some relevant injury concerns don’t exactly stack up in i'ts favour. Crystal Palace are likely already safe from relegation and three points at home against the doomed Huddersfield will cement their survival.
Just 43% of league matches involving Palace have gone over 2.5 goals, but that stat is on a run of four in a row thanks to Palace scoring nine in those matches while shipping seven against better clubs.
Both teams have scored in the last five matches involving Crystal Palace (as well as in eight of their last nine), while they have kept just two clean sheets in six games at home against clubs below them on the table going into this week. Conversely, Huddersfield have scored just once from four away trips to those same clubs below Palace.
At the time of writing, Palace aren’t guaranteed to have either Zaha or Wan-Bissaka starting (both injury concerns) and they definitely won’t have Mamadou Sakho. Huddersfield may be without Karlan Grant, who notched up a double against West Ham, while Jason Puncheon sits this one out due to his loan agreement.
The model finds value both in the overs (a five percent edge) and in both teams scoring (six percent), though it must be noted they are still the less likely outcomes, albeit marginally.
Personally, I prefer the over 2.5 goals play as I have more confidence in Palace putting three or more past the Terriers than I do in Huddersfield getting on the board here.
VIEW STATS INSIDER'S FREE MATCH PREDICTIONS
BURNLEY v WOLVES
Sun 31 March 2:00am EDT
The Play: Burnley H2H
Overachievers Wolves are looking for their first win at Burnley this decade (D1, L1), and on paper should be in a great position to get the job done. They’ve been a popular pick for punters throughout the season after a record of W2, D4, L3 against the “big six” but have shown themselves particularly vulnerable on the road, losing to Huddersfield, Cardiff and Brighton.
While Burnley is one of the last teams I’d have any confidence in backing at the moment, I don’t mind potting Wolves on the road given their tendency for relaxing a little too much against clubs with a point to prove. Furthermore, they’re facing a Burnley side who are just two points above the relegation zone and very well know that, with games against Chelsea, City and Arsenal to come, they cannot afford to be dropping points in the remainder.
The hosts have conceded two or more in their last four games against some decent opposition and they’d be glad to welcome an opposition who have done that just once in their last five.
Just one fresh absence for each side here: Johann Gudmundsson missed a friendly with France with a calf injury and isn’t likely to be fit for this clash, while Wolves lose key defender Ryan Bennett to suspension.
Whereas the bookies have Wolves as favourites for this one, the model sees Burnley as the narrowest of favs, winning 35% of simulations for a five percent edge in their favour.
VIEW STATS INSIDER'S FREE MATCH PREDICTIONS
CARDIFF v CHELSEA
Mon 1 April 12:05am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both to Score - YES
A big Monday morning gets underway in Wales where a desperate Cardiff look to make the most of their game in hand on Burnley with a surprise result against Chelsea.
The Bluebirds haven’t played a game in three weeks due to international breaks and Cup rescheduling and yet still have a host of injuries to deal with for their relegation fight: Sol Bamba is out, while the likes of Bennett, Arter and Paterson - all regular starters - all need to pass fitness tests late in the week to make the matchday squad here. Chelsea are unlikely to make many changes: Pedro should edge out Willian once again, though Emerson could be given the nod ahead of Marcos Alonso at left-back.
History suggests this will be full of goals: there have been four head-to-head meetings dating back to 2010, with both teams contributing in all four games towards a total of over 2.5 total goals (there were three 4-1 results to Chelsea).
Cardiff have scored in 62% of home games, including against Arsenal, Manchester United and Wolves, while Chelsea have conceded in two-thirds of their away trips including at Brighton and Fulham.
The Over 2.5 play may be more attractive given the way in which Chelsea have put the cellar-dwellers to the sword this year: all five of their away trips to clubs in the bottom six have seen three or more goals scored, and the model finds value in that going 6/6 here: 59% of simulations are falling into the over 2.5 bucket.
Both teams are scoring in 55% of simulations, whereas the bookies are giving slight favouritism to the opposite.
VIEW STATS INSIDER'S FREE MATCH PREDICTIONS
LIVERPOOL v TOTTENHAM
Mon 1 April 2:30am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals
Earlier in the season, Tottenham would probably have been touted as the most likely of contenders to win at Anfield, having collected wins in eight of their first nine away trips and leading the league on the away table through to Christmas.
Since the February international break, it has gone horribly pear-shaped: Spurs have lost three straight on the road, dropped points in a home derby with Arsenal, and have dropped from outside title contenders to fighting even for Champions League football. They have maintained just the one clean sheet in their last nine matches, with five of their last eight league games producing over 2.5 total goals.
Anfield is the last place they’d want to be travelling to right now, with the Reds having lost just two of their last 38 Premier League matches there. The goals have been flowing thick and fast there, so it’s very encouraging to see a five percent edge in favour of the overs. The Reds have scored three or more goals in seven of their last eight at home since mid-December, even putting Manchester United and Arsenal to the sword in that time.
Liverpool have just one injury concern in mid-week: Alexander-Arnold is fighting to regain fitness, while Eric Dier and Serge Aurier collected injuries on international duty.
Given that Spurs have conceded two or more in four of five away trips to clubs inside the top eight going into this round (the exception being the hapless Mourinho United squad), it’s the play I can personally take with the utmost of confidence this weekend. Let’s go out on a high!
Check out our EPL Hub for more comprehensive EPL content, fixtures, predictions and results.
Follow us on Social Media!
FACEBOOK / TWITTER / INSTAGRAM
Join in the conversation and tell us how you feel!
Drop a comment at the bottom of the page to participate in discussion with like-minded-sports-and-data-nerds 👇
