Another Premier League season rapidly approaches, with a mouthwatering Manchester United versus Chelsea fixture to look forward in the first round of matches.

The bookies and the Stats Insider futures model were spot on last year, having installed Manchester City (47.7%) and Liverpool (20.9%) as the two clear title-winning chances. Their rampant domination of the league was once-in-a-generation, with the 26-point gap between City and third-placed Chelsea the largest gap ever seen in 130 years of top flight football in England. Their 195 points broke the record - held only the season before - for the most combined points acquired by the top two clubs by a total of 14. 

Around rolls the 2019/20 season, and with it predictions that the top two from last season could sneak even further away from the chasing pack. Alas, there is still some value (or lack of) to be found with Stat’s Insider’s EPL futures predictor, which simulates the upcoming season at least 10,000 times to come up with probabilities of a title, a top-four finish and relegation for all 20 clubs.

If you’re one among the billions of football followers with a “big six” club running through your blood, continue reading to find out our predictions for your team this season.

ARSENAL

Title probability: 1.4%

Top four: 35.2% 

Transfers In: Dani Ceballos (Real Madrid), Gabriel Martinelli (Ituano), Nicolas Pépé (Lille), William Saliba (Saint-Etienne)

Transfers Out: Krystian Bielik (Derby County), Laurent Koscielny (Bordeaux), David Ospina (Napoli), Aaron Ramsey (Juventus), Danny Welbeck (Watford)

After missing UEFA Cup/Champions League football for the first time in over two decades in 2017/18, Arsenal followed up again by missing the top four for a third consecutive season for the first time since the mid-1980s. Unai Emery improved on Wenger’s final season at the helm by seven points, and with a full pre-season under his belt, will be under fierce scrutiny should the Gunners remain outside of UCL contention come Boxing Day.

With the prolific signing of Nicolas Pépé from LOSC Lille in the last week of July, Emery has - in the eyes of many pundits and 80% of a fan poll from English tabloid The Sun - a front-three even better than Liverpool’s attacking trio at his disposal. Pépé netted 22 goals last Ligue 1 season for Lille, second only to Kylian Mbappé. A repeat of such numbers in the PL, in addition to the half-century racked up by Aubameyang and Lacazette, could see the kind of scoring worthy of a top-two contender.

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A big question - likely to be answered in the way of a signing or two between publication and the end of the transfer window - is that of how to fill the hole left by the departing Laurent Koscielny. A centre-back combination of Sokratis and Chambers is hardly enough to inspire Arsenal fans to bee ambitious through the early half of the season. 

Sharp improvement on the road is required, with the Gunners winning just 53.85% of games as an away favourite last league season. It is for those reasons that the price of $2.25 available for a top four finish could be a big no-no: Arsenal finish fourth or better in just 35.2% of Stats Insider simulations - the fewest of all big six clubs, which equates to odds of $2.84 in a 100% market. 

CHELSEA

Title probability: 2.3%

Top four: 48.7%

Transfers In: Tiemoué Bakayoko (loan end), Michy Batshuayi (loan end), Mateo Kovačić (purchased from loan), Christian Pulisic (loan end)
Transfers Out: Victorien Angban (Metz), Marcin Bułka (PSG), Bradley Collins (Barnsley), Frankaty Dabo (Coventry City) Jay Dasilva (Bristol City), Eduardo (Braga), Eden Hazard (Real Madrid) Kylian Hazard (Cercle Brugge)

How often do club legends make for successful managers? A question for another one, and one that we’ll have somewhat of an answer for by May in regards to Frank Lampard, who on the face of it already appears a more suitable candidate than Maurizio Sarri. Despite the growing malaise from the stands towards Sarri’s tenure, he steered Chelsea back into Champions League as well as earning them some silverware on the Europa stage. 

It’s a tough act to follow for an inexperienced manager who is banned from making any signings due to a transfer window ban and begins a new season sans Eden Hazard, responsible for 20% of Chelsea’s goals over the last three seasons. As a result, many notable loanees including Michy Batshuayi and Tiemoué Bakayoko, along with new signing Christian Pulisic are likely to feature in the new campaign. 

Chelsea are particularly dependent on slick starts - their average of 0.75 points per game when conceding the opening goal last season was the fourth-best of the big six - and thus the opening 15 minutes (where they were one of 11 clubs with a negative goal difference) needs to be improved upon.

The Stats Insider model, interestingly, rates Chelsea a 48% chance of making the top four - considerably ahead of Manchester United (41%) but at the same price as the Red Devils at $2.10. Should you fancy the likes of Willian and Pedro to return to their best form and for new arrival Pulisic to find his potential, you could do much worse when it comes to a value pick.

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LIVERPOOL

Title probability: 30.5%

Top four: 93%

Transfers In: Adrián (West Ham United), Sepp van den Berg (PEC Zwolle)

Transfers out: Danny Ings (Southampton), Lazar Marković (Fulham), Conor Masterson (QPR), Simon Mignolet (Club Brugge), Alberto Moreno (Villarreal), Daniel Sturridge (free agent), Harry Wilson (Bournemouth)

The hard luck story of 2018/19 look set to deliver more of the same after their best ever Premier League season in terms of points collected: in fact, their 97-point haul would have been enough to win the league in any 38-game season bar Man City’s century in 2017/18. 

Has Champions League glory, and that come-from-behind win against giants Barcelona, given them the confidence required to make those one or two extra steps required to defeat City both home and away this season? It could be as simple as their two meetings with the champions eventuating as title deciders: while Liverpool dropped points elsewhere - notably, in a horror week against Leicester and West Ham in the second half of the season - a draw at City at the beginning of January would have been enough in the end to finish with the silverware. John Stones’ incredible goal-line clearance on that fateful day at the Etihad will be burned in the nightmares of Liverpool fans across the world for many a year.

Klopp’s men tick all the boxes once again this season, having found themselves a more reliable goalkeeper in Brazilian Alisson to head 2018/19’s most impenetrable defence (he conceded just one goal from six Copa America matches more recently), while the front three of Firmino, Mané and Salah have enjoyed another pre-season together. Similarly to Tottenham last season, Klopp has opted for a more-of-the-same strategy in regards to off-season business, with few noteworthy signings registered. Virgil van Dijk, who retains his 65-game record without having been dribbled against (as the Community Shield is not a competitive fixture), looks as solid as ever.

The Reds are triumphing in a shade over 30% of Stats Insider simulations, equating to $3.27 in a 100% market. With a price of $3.85 available, that makes Liverpool the big value play of the pre-season markets.

MANCHESTER CITY

Title probability: 57.1%

Top four: 95.4%

Transfers In: Angeliño (PSV), João Cancelo (Juventus), Rodri (Atletico Madrid)

Transfers Out: Danilo (Juventus), Fabian Delph (Everton), Manu Garcia (Sporting Gijon), Vincent Kompany (Anderlecht), Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)

As though 2017/18 didn’t see enough records broken by Pep Guardiola’s City, they followed it up with a few more last season, including the most goals in all competitions in a single season (169 after the 6-0 demolition of Watford in the FA Cup final). It is still a staggering thought that they have so much more to aim for, having been knocked out in the quarter-finals of the Champions League last season. Can they become the first team since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United of 2006-09 to collect a PL hat-trick? 

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On all accounts, it seems hard to argue against it. The vigour and steeliness with which City approached their pre-season - including a game in Yokohama in which Guardiola reportedly drilled his troops after conceding a first-half equaliser - suggests they are as hellbent as ever on conquering all before them. The pursuit of four titles last season may have got the better of them when it came to continental football, so domestic cups could take a backseat this season as the PL and CL becomes rightfully prioritised. 

New signing from Rodri looks an adequate, if not an even better, replacement for the ageing Fernandinho, and the only piece of the puzzle that remains is a centre-back to fill the shoes of Kompany. Could either Rodri or Fernandinho fill the void when required?

There’s no surprise to see that the bookmakers are keeping Manchester City very safe once again in 2019. The Stats Insider simulator sees City triumphing for a third-straight season on just 57.1% of 10,000+ simulations ($1.75 in a 100% market), which - as would surprise few - sees a price of $1.50 as no value whatsoever, particularly with so many potential variables in a nine-month season at play.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Title probability: 2.1%

Top four: 41.4%

Transfers In: Daniel James (Swansea City), Harry Maguire (Leicester City), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Crystal Palace)

Transfers out: Ander Herrera (PSG), Antonio Valencia (LDU Quito), James Wilson (Aberdeen)

Manchester United’s brief honeymoon under Ole Gunnar Solskjær - a 12-game unbeaten run in league football through to the first week of March - is well and truly over. The Red Devils finished the season losing to Wolves, Everton and Cardiff amongst others and enter the season approaching another winter of discontent. While Romelu Lukaku is moving to Italy, Paul Pogba looks to be remaining at the club for another transfer window despite his wish, while the hefty spend for Harry Maguire and Arron Wan-Bissaka are the only noteworthy signings made by Solskjaer.

Granted, they have looked fluid and didn’t drop a game on their Australasian pre-season tour, with Marcus Rashford - an underachiever when it comes to registering on the score sheet - finding the back of the net in three of six fixtures including against Milan. Even when Pogba lacked the passion under Mourinho (and later in the season under Solskjær), he still topped the United squad for several key stats including goals, assists, shots on target and key passes. 

A win-rate of 58% (ninth-best in the league) in 2018/19 made them an undesirable betting prospect and yet bookmakers rate them just as great a prospect as Chelsea for an upset title win or a top-four finish. The Stats Insider model thinks otherwise. United come out fourth or better in just 41.4% of simulations compared with the aforementioned 48% for Chelsea. 

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TOTTENHAM

Title probability: 4.7%

Top four: 63.3%

Transfers In: Georges-Kevin N'Koudou (AS Monaco), Tanguy Ndombele (Lyon)

Transfers Out: Vincent Janssen (Monterrey), Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid)

It was another case of “so close, yet so far” for Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham: rated by the Stats Insider Futures model last season as the best value of the top six, Tottenham at one point looked a genuine threat of their first league victory since 1961 when in front of Man City on Boxing Day. True to historical form, they slipped away late in the season with three losses from their final five matches before also dropping a golden opportunity to be crowned European champions.

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Remarkably, despite managing to hold onto a top-four spot, Tottenham suffered their most losses in a Premier League season (13) in ten years, including seven from 30 fixtures as a betting favourite.

Pochettino still believes he has the core for a title challenge, spending under £40m (at the time of writing) to replace the outgoing Janssen and bolster an already world-class midfield with Congolese-Frenchman Ndombele. However, there are some big moves potentially to be made in the eleventh hour, with Paulo Dybala close to joining and Christian Eriksen still waiting for the conclusion of talks with Atletico Madrid.

There is no doubting that the talent exists for a top-two push, as was evident for the first 25 games of the 2018/19 season, but squad depth in the back of the formation remains an ongoing concern. Spurs may also benefit from brushing domestic cups to one side in favour of another push for the league. 

Similarly to the market, the Stats Insider futures model sees Tottenham as a clear third-favourite. A probability of 63.3% for a top-four finish (equating to odds of $1.58 in a 100% market) sees the 1.50 on offer as a fair price, while a price beginning with a two for the title is probably more accurate. 

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