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Man vs Machine: College Football Championship Weekend

Win and you’re in. That’s the case for Georgia who are on the verge of sneaking into the College Football Playoffs after Michigan blew the perfect opportunity to do so by giving up a team-high 62 points in a hammering by rivals Ohio State. What’s standing in the way for Georgia is their Achilles heel: the Alabama Crimson Tide. Georgia had them on the ropes in the National Championship game last season until Tua Tagovailoa entered the fold and led them to the promised land.

Can Georgia pull it off? What happens if Georgia lose? These are the questions that place the playoff committee in a tough spot. A Georgia win makes their job easy. Georgia join Bama, Clemson & Notre Dame in the Playoff. A Georgia loss and an Oklahoma win should see the Sooners in the #4 spot. 

A Georgia & Oklahoma loss makes things especially spicy, with Ohio State or Washington potentially sneaking in. The college football playoffs stem on the result of that Georgia game but Championship weekend offers plenty of other great action. After going 3-2 last week, here are our five best for the week:


THE GAME: NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ BUFFALO

TIME: Saturday 11:00am AEDT

THE PLAY: Buffalo -3.5

Buffalo are favoured to win their first MAC Championship in 10 years and we think they’ll get the job done here. We like how they match up well against Northern Illinois. The Huskies Defense, lead by defensive end Sutton Smith, has been the key to their success this season and they allow just 20.9 points per game. 

Unfortunately, the Huskies offense is a mitigated disaster & have struggled to score points (nine fewest points per game in the nation). The one weakness Northern Illinois have on defense is in the passing game and Bulls QB Tyree Jackson, with his great receivers in Osborn & Johnson should be able to exploit that enough to rack up some points. 

Given the state of the Huskies offense, it might only take 3 touchdowns (Bulls average 35.3 points per game) to cover the spread. Buffalo haven’t beaten Northern Illinois since 1968, we like them to buck the trend and get the win, covering the 3.5 points in the process.


THE GAME: UTAH @ WASHINGTON

TIME: Saturday 12:00pm AEDT

THE PLAY: Washington -5.5

We are going back to the Washington well after their impressive Apple Cup victory last week for us in the snowy conditions. Earlier this season, the Huskies destroyed a full strength Utah team 21-7 in Salt Lake City and since then the Utes have lost their starting QB and starting RB. 

Both teams are incredibly strong on defense ranking 16th & 10th in points allowed per game but you have to trust Washington a little bit more in this spot to produce scoring drives. Myles Gaskin should play a pivotal role in this one after racking up 143 yards on 30 rush attempts against Utah in Week 3. 

We saw this elite Washington secondary, littered with future NFL players, shut down Gardner Minshew last week and they should have no issues doing the same against Jason Shelley. Look for Washington to control this match with a good ground game and smothering this Utes offense. Washington cover in a low scoring affair.


THE GAME: TEXAS @ OKLAHOMA

TIME: Sunday 4:00am AEDT

THE PLAY: Texas +8

In the NFL we have the great “Andy Reid after a bye” narrative that has been fairly profitable over the years. In college football, it is bet on Tom Herman as an underdog. Herman is a phenomenal 13-2 against the spread when he closes as an underdog as the Texas head coach & went 6-0 against the spread as an underdog when he was the offensive coordinator for the Ohio State Buckeyes. 

You’re getting more than a touchdown here on the Longhorns against an awful Sooners defense that ranks 111th in total defense. Texas won this match up earlier this season 48-45 and we wouldn’t be surprised if they did it again. Don’t overthink it, take the +8.


THE GAME: MEMPHIS @ UCF

TIME: Sunday 6:30am AEDT

THE PLAY: Memphis +3.5

This game has such a different feel to it now after the horrific injury to Quarterback McKenzie Milton last week. Milton was not only the heart and soul of this team but a Heisman Trophy candidate and was a major part of their offensive success. So this game essentially comes down to whether the Knights can produce enough offense without Milton. 

Many will point to their impressive numbers on the ground but Memphis defensive strength is stopping the run (they’re 44th in rushing defense on S&P+). UCF have allowed 214 rushing yards per game this season and face future NFL running back in Darrell Henderson. If Henderson and Memphis get it going on the ground they can take up plenty of time off the clock and if the Tigers run defense can force new UCF quarterback Darriel Mack to make some plays through the air it’ll put them in a good position in this one. 

If Milton was healthy, UCF comfortably win this game and keep themselves in the College Football playoff conversation (the slimmest of chances but just to be in the conversation for a program like this is fantastic). This injury to Milton leaves the Knights and their 24 game winning streak incredibly vulnerable. They not only cover the 3.5 point spread but win this one outright.


THE GAME: ALABAMA @ GEORGIA

TIME: Sunday 7:00am AEDT

THE PLAY: Georgia +13.5 

Alabama are the best team in the country and haven’t been pushed for four quarters all year. So why take Georgia here? Well, this is easily Alabama’s toughest game to date. Georgia are exceptional across the board and have won five straight by an average margin of 23 points since their shock loss to LSU. Georgia rank 3rd in S&P+ overall and have tremendous balance ranking 3rd in offense, 14th in defense & 10th in special teams in S&P+. 

Georgia also boast a massive advantage on special teams with Alabama ranking 92nd, which could be difference maker when you have a double-digit spread. As we said in our introduction to this weeks picks, Georgia have to win this game, this is their Super Bowl and they’ll be heavily motivated to avenge their National Championship loss last year to Alabama. 

Jake Fromm attacked Alabama deep last year in the Championship game and will have no fear trying to match Tua Tagovailoa and keep Georgia in this game. This should be another classic SEC title game that should be close until late in the fourth quarter. If you’re not confident in the Bulldogs, Under 64 could be an option here with both teams allowing less than 18 points per game on defense. 


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Woot & Wye

When it comes to NFL commentary in Australia, look no further than Joshua Wootton & Joshua Wye. Their podcast, appropriately named after their surnames, has been the home for all things NFL in Australia for 5+ seasons. The Woot and Wye Show covers all aspects of the National Football League including Fantasy Football, DFS, Betting and the Draft. They bring you fresh and fun football analysis every single week. If they’re not talking NFL you’ll find them chowing down burritos at your nearest Guzman Y Gomez. You can talk football with them on Twitter by giving them a follow @wootandwye.

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