AFLW 2019: Round 6 Preview

With every game this round (yes, even the two forecasted shellackings) having AFLW Finals implications, Round 6 of the 2019 AFLW season feels like the start of a four week finals series. 

Geelong  v Fremantle

When, where and weather: 2:35pm (AEDT) Saturday, March 9 @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. 

Pretty favourable forecast for footy, with no rain and only light winds predicted for Saturday afternoon.

Comment: This will be a ripper. Can Geelong’s midfield unit match Fremantle's? If not, can their defence hold up against one of the fastest forward lines in the comp? If Geelong get their share of inside fifties they can expose the Dockers' main weakness, which is their defence. If, however, Fremantle can continue to do what they have done all season and dominate the clearances and stoppages, not even the heroic efforts of Meg MacDonald or Maddi McMahon can save them.

Who wins and why? Fascinating to see who Geelong send to Gemma Houghton. She looms as a key player here, as I don’t think McDonald has the speed to go with her which means McMahon may get the big job. Expect Fremantle to win but not by much. Dockers by 3 points.  

View Match Page: Cats v Dockers

 

Collingwood v North Melbourne

When, where and weather: 4:40pm (AEDT) Saturday, March 9 @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. 

No rain forecast, and besides, we’re at Marvel so the roof will take care of any pesky weather.

Comment: If you are a Collingwood supporter, this is not going to be pretty, but if you follow the Kangaroos then get down to Marvel Stadium. Very likely to see our first 50+ blowout win in the AFLW, as an angry North Melbourne side looks to take out their frustrations from last week’s loss to Adelaide on the hapless Magpies with no way to stop them. I honestly can’t see how Collingwood keep North under 100pts here.

Who wins and why? North Melbourne are bigger, faster, stronger, and more skillful – they are just better in every metric. Any narrative about Collingwod being up for this game due to Duffin, King, Hope and Garner defecting fails to take into consideration the skill level gulf between these two sides. Collingwood will certainly try and seek payback, they just won’t be able to get their hands on the footy. North Melbourne by 10 goals.

View Match Page: Magpies v Kangaroos

 

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

When, where and weather: 7:10pm (AEDT) Saturday, March 9 @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne.

Comment: The second game of the Marvel Stadium double-header sees the defending AFLW Premiers (who can't play AFLW Finals) playing the perennial under-achievers, who are fighting to stay in the AFLW Finals hunt. Expect the Bulldogs to be much better with Lochland and Huntington second up. Katie Brennan will absolutely love the wide open spaces of Marvel but at the end of the day, the Demons forward line is too fast and too skillful for the Bulldogs, and I expect hte vast majority of Melbourne forays forward to result in shots on goal. Lauren Pearce will dominate in the ruck.

Who wins and why? There is no doubt the Demons will be hungrier, but take that factor out and Melbourne still project as a deeper, more skillful team. Melbourne by 10 points.

View Match Page: Bulldogs v Demons

 

Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants

When, where and weather: 2:05pm (AEDT) Sunday, March 10 @ Unley Oval, Adelaide.

Comment: The Giants travel west to take on the Crows at the Sturt footy ground, and if they are not careful they will get absolutely flogged. In fact, the Giants will have to play out of their skins just to avoid getting embarrassed on the scoreboard. Adelaide will see this game as a chance to lock in an AFLW Semi Final berth with a huge percentage-boosting win. The scenario in Conference A means even if Adelaide lose to Melbourne in Round 7, if their percentage is good enough they will still play AFLW Finals. The Giants can’t stop them. They have a slow, panicked defence, a midfield that hasn’t really fired a shot, and a forward line dominated by Irish imports who lack composure and general game knowledge.  

Who wins and why? The Crows will know that anything above a 30 point win should see them playing AFLW Finals in 2019, so expect them to come out firing and run this game out to the very end. Adelaide by 30+.

View Match Page: Crows v Giants

 

Carlton v Brisbane Lions

When, where and weather: 4:05pm (AEDT) Sunday, March 10 @ Ikon Park, Carlton. 

Chance of a shower or two – monitor.

Comment: Which Lions team will we see? The one which played so poorly in two crucial home games or the side that, in between those ‘efforts’, went down to Melbourne and annihilated the Western Bulldogs? Will Carlton be able to kick for goal without hitting the post? Lions star defender, Kate Lutkins, was pretty banged up after last week’s game, and whether she plays or not will be a huge factor as she can keep Tayla Harris quiet like few others in the competition. Expect Nat Exon or Jackie Yorston to heavily tag Maddi Prespakis. If Brisbane let her roam around she will simply demolish them. With all due respect to Michelle Pfeiffer, these two sides are playing in what is clearly the ‘Grease 2’ (ie; lesser) Conference B, but the way results have fallen this almost looms as a win-and-play-Finals type game for both sides. Expect the Lions administration have now decided to wait until their team actually books their place in the AFLW Finals series to reignite talk of where to play said Final.

Who wins and why? We have to assume both teams bring their best here, which makes me lean to the Lions. Expect a big bounce-back game from Brisbane's talls Sabrina Freidrick-Traub and young Jesse Wardlaw. Carlton are not a tall defensive unit, so if Brisbane win enough ball out of the middle the Lions key forwards could have a big say on this result. Assuming Lutkins plays I'm backing Brisbane by 8pts.

View Match Page: Blues v Lions


How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!

Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!

Related Articles
Loading...
More Articles