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Every Friday, we'll be bringing you our most comprehensive AFL Round Preview ever, so whatever work you have to do today, make sure it gets done before late morning because after that any productivity is likely to be replaced by thoughts of parma lunch, footy and winning!! 

READ: AFL 2019 Season Preview

The model had a ripsnorter of a start to the 2019 AFL season, with the first green smiley prediction easily saluting for punters on opening night. #TrustTheModel

Collingwood v Geelong

When, Where and Weather: 7:50pm (AEDT) Friday March 22 @ MCG, Melbourne. 

Weather looks clear but a possible late thunderstorm has been flagged on the forecast so check radar prior to bounce.

Comment: The Cats are expected to slide down the Premiership pole, while the Magpies are being touted as the team to beat in 2019 after going oh so close last season. They have also since strengthened their list with gun on-baller Dayne Beams(as well as getting Jamie Elliot back and Darcy Moore fit).

I think the Cats will also improve in 2019, but their season hinges on the ability of Rhys Stanley, Tim Kelly, Brandan Parfitt and Tom Stewart to all go up a gear.

Who Wins and Why? It’s so close for mine, and if this was at Geelong I’d be backing the Cats, but being at the 'G I have to take the Magpies. It's a 1-2 goal game though, a last-kick thriller would not surprise at all. 

Model and Market: The Stats Insider model - having simulated the scores 10,000 times - has the Pies winning by 10 points(95-85) which is almost identical to the -9.5pt market line. The markets are very tight for this one, but watch the Unders edge closer to bounce – it could move late, especially with weather so be ready to jump on like with the season opener.

Exotics Watch: It’s short, but Dangerfield for 30+ at $1.70 is a steal for a player who can give 40+ a real shot here. Love the Tri-Bet Either Team 1-19 @ $2.20!

View Free Match Predictions: Magpies v Cats

Melbourne v Port Adelaide

When, Where and Weather: 1:45pm (AEDT) Saturday March 23 @ the MCG, Melbourne. 

The forecast looks promising for an afternoon of dry weather in Melbourne but as always, check prior to bounce.

Comment: The competition sits and waits to see whether the Demon juggernaut has gone to another level - or whether 2018 was as high as it will get - while the Power have named a host of youngsters in a mini list rejuvenation.

I’m expecting the Demons to win comfortably here on the back of their power-running midfield, but if there is a team that can curtail the influence of Max Gawn it is probably the Power with Paddy Ryder and new recruit, Scott Lycett forming a potent ruck duo.

Who Wins and Why? The Power are still largely unknown at this point with all their personnel and positional changes, so they are hard to back with confidence. Demons at the MCG is likely to be as set-and-forget as tips go in 2019.  

Model and Markets: There is no fence-sitting from the Stats Insider model in this game, simulating (after 10,000 simulations) a dominant 28 point win for the Demons. The market line is just a hair under that at -25.5 and when both model and market are telling me 4-5 goals, I’m inclined to agree.

Exotics Watch: Brad Ebert probably has to run with Clayton Oliver here, which allows Angus Brayshaw to rack 'em up at will. $9.00 for 35+ seems very achievable.

View Free Match Predictions: Demons v Power

Adelaide v Hawthorn

When, Where and Weather: 4:35pm (AEDT) Saturday March 23 @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide.

Fine and sunny in the City of Churches, perfect for Saturday twilight footy.

Comment: These two sides were incredibly inconsistent last season, playing both sensational and putrid football - sometimes within the space of 7 days. The Hawks scraped into the AFL Finals, but with Tom Mitchell going down with an ACL early in pre-season, they will need to rely on some youngsters to step up. The Hawks look set to be pushing uphill to repeat their 2018 finish.

Unfortunately for the Hawks, they have drawn a sleeping giants first up. I am not alone in expecting to see the Crows absolutely embarrass some teams this season. They have the team to contend for the AFL Premiership and if their pre-season is anything to go by, they have the hunger and ruthlessness back, along with Brad Crouch and Brodie Smith.

Who Wins and Why? Crows for mine, by plenty. Not many teams can take out their best midfielder and compete, let alone a middling team like Hawthorn who relied on Mitchell for 40+ and 10 tackles every game. The Crows at home can give 40+ a good look.  

Model and Markets: The model projects a comfortable 19 point win for the home side, on average. Two small edges (Hawks H2H and Under 189.5pts) are well worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to bounce. Markets have the Crows needing to cover a -22.5pt spread, so clearly I am a lot more bullish on the Crows than both the Stats Insider model and the markets.

Exotics Watch: Value galore here! Rory Sloane @ $5.50 for 30+ is amazing, particularly as you can take him at $2 for 25+ for some safety. An injury-free Rory Sloane will no issues finding the footy, even with that stacked Adelaide midfield. I love Liam Shiels for 30+ @ $6.50. Without Tom Mitchell, Shiels can get to 35+ @ $26’s for the hail-mary chasers.

View Free Match Predictions: Crows v Hawks

Western Bulldogs v Sydney

When, Where and Weather: 7:25pm (AEDT) Saturday March 23 @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. 

Weather not an issue with the roof closed at Marvel. Perfect conditions await.

Comment: Who knows what Luke Beveridge will do here? We could see Caleb Daniel matching up on Lance Franklin if some of his pre-season moves are an indication. All things being (relatively) equal, the Swans look to have the Dogs well and truly covered up forward. If Sydney can apply pressure to the forward fifty entry then I struggle to see how the Dogs kick a winning score.

If the Dogs can win it clean, often enough out of the middle, they will be in the game but I don’t see slow or high entries into Heath Grundy & Dane Rampe and the like troubling the Swans too much. The Franklin factor is always prominent at Marvel.

Who Wins and Why? Swans win and win well for mine. I can see them getting much more bang for their buck going inside 50 than the Dogs. Sydney by 20.

Model and Markets: The Stats Insider model has simulated the match 10,000 times, projects the Swans by 13 pointson the simulation's mean team scores, slightly ahead of where the market line for Sydney is at -11.5pts.

Exotics Watch: Franklin for 6+ goals at $5.50 seems short, but the Dogs will have to put Easton Wood on him if Aaron Naughton remains forward. Buddy will get his chances. I also like Jack Macrae for 40+ at $5.50. Take the $2 on offer for the 35 as a saver.

View Free Match Predictions: Bulldogs v Swans

Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles

When, Where and Weather: 8:25pm (AEDT) Saturday March 23 @ The Gabba, Brisbane.

Forecast says clear skies but don’t be surprised to see an evening thunderstorm roll through. Monitor closer to first bounce.

Comment: On paper, the Lions have a bit of roar back, but we may have to wait until Round 2 to hear it because they have drawn the reigning AFL Premiers first up. I just don’t see the Lions winning in any area across the ground, this Eagles side is simply too good.  

Mark Hutchings will go to Dayne Zorko and try to shut him out of the game completely, which leaves star recruit Lachie Neale and some kids to compete with a hardened AFL Premiership midfield, who will be kicking to what is the best key forward combination in the competition.

Who Wins and Why? As I said I can’t find a winner for Brisbane on any line, apart from - maybe - the ruck. If Stefan Martin can get on top, giving his midfielders first use of the ball and keeping the clearances at least even then maybe (just maybe!) the Lions can contain this Eagles juggernaut. I doubt it though. Eagles by 30+ despite a slippery ball in humid conditions.

Model and Markets: The Stats Insider model is much more bullish on the Lions chances here, averaging a 10 point differential for the Eagles from it's 10,000 simulations. The bookies concur, offering punters just -8.5pts for the 2018 AFL Premiers at the line. I love that line, it's one of my personal plays of the round.

Exotics Watch: Dom Sheed walks into 30+ @ $3 here sans Andrew Gaff. The guy just finds the footy, and he looks on the cusp of going into that elite ball-winning tier. I’d have a little splash at the $34’s for 40+ too. Hugh McCluggage at $5.50 in the second tier Most Disposals market looks good value, it's a coin flip between him and Shannon Hurn who dominates the market at $2.25.

View Free Match Prediction: Lions v Eagles

St Kilda v Gold Coast

When, Where and Weather: 1:10pm (AEDT) Sunday March 24 @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. 

Marvel with the roof option means conditions will be great for footy.

Comment: These two teams are both expected to struggle mightily in AFL 2019, but there is much more pressure on the Saints to win this one than there is on the Suns, who many expect could go through the season without a win.

Not me. The Suns can win this game and loom for me to be one of the bets of the round at the line. Their midfield got a lot deeper this off-season, and they have a very solid forward line, even with the loss of Tom Lynch. It’s just their key defence that looks likely to struggle but Josh Bruce, Rowan Marshall and Tim Membrey haven't exactly proved themselves world beaters of late.

Who Wins and Why? Jarrod Witts can dominate the ruck here against lesser experienced guys, and should give the Suns midfield every chance to find their forwards. I expect there will be 1-2 straight kicks in this come the final siren, and I’ll lean the Suns. Gold Coast by 5.

Model and Markets: My stand on the Suns is not shared by... umm, anyone. The Stats Insider model has simulated a 28 point differential in St Kilda's favour, whilst markets have the line at -25.5 for the Saints. The Suns are $3.90 to win straight up. Don’t be surprised to see an edge pop up for the Suns late here.

Exotics Watch: Markets will update once teams finalise on Friday evening, but Brayden Fiorino for 30+ is always good value, and don’t sleep on Pearce Hanley for 25+ who will get a stat bump from the new kick-in rule. Touk Miller can run-with Ross so I’m avoiding his 40+ price. Jack Steven can have a game here though. 30-40 disposals very much in play.  Rowan Marshall is worth a good look for 2/3/4 goals at what should be strong odds.

View Free Match Predictions: Saints v Suns

GWS Giants v Essendon

When, Where and Weather: 3:20pm (AEDT) Sunday March 24 @ Sydney Showground Stadium, Sydney. 

No rain forecast, expect great conditions for footy.

Comment: Two expected ‘contenders’ in 2019 go head to head in a game that has some juicy narratives around Dylan Shiel joining his former Giants teammate, Devon Smith, at Essendon.    

This game looks likely to be really hot early, then descend into an absolute shootout late.

Who Wins and Why? The team who kicks straightest wins this game, in my book. Easy to say but that’s how it will play out with both sides looking fairly evenly matched across the ground. I’ll take the Bombers to upset the Giants but not by much. Essendon by a point.

Model and Markets: The model and I are on the same page for once. Hurrah! A 1 point differential from 10,000 simulations tells you it’s going to be a close one. The model has also come down on the side of the Bombers at 91-90. Getting a decent price for Essendon H2H at $2.05 with markets giving the Giants -3.5 point spread, which likely reflects some kind of home ground advantage as much as anything. I like the H2H and Line edges for the Bombers from the model. 

Exotics Watch: Fire up your Tri-Bets. 1-9, 1-19, 1-15 – you name it, jump on it because everything is pointing to a close finish in this game. With Smith likely to tag Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Tim Taranto both look set for big 30+ games disposals-wise. The former can push 40+ at a great price. Believe the Andrew McGrath hype, he can salute for 30+ at very, very good odds here, his days of back-pocket plumbing are over.

View Free Match Predictions: Giants v Bombers

Fremantle v North Melbourne

When, Where and Weather: 4:20pm (AEDT) Sunday March 24 @ Optus Stadium, Perth. 

Fine and sunny in Perth, great conditions for footy.

Comment: This game will be a belter. No Ben Jacobs for North means Nat Fyfe will get to be Fyfe without a hard tag (probably still gets some run-with opponent, maybe Anderson?) and we get to also see new recruits Aaron Hall, Jared Polec, Jasper Pittard and possibly Dom Tyson run around for North.

It really would not surprise me to see this game clear 200 points. Both teams can leak goals and both have named really offensively-geared teams.

Who Wins and Why? Todd Goldstein, Jack Ziebell, Trent Dumont – North have a few more positional winners, and generally bat deeper than the Dockers. They showed enough grit and ticker last season, that even if they are down by 3-4 goals early, they won’t panic. I like them here. Kangaroos by 10.  

Model and Markets: From 10,000 simulations the Stats insider model has also landed on the side of the Kangas, 90-86.As I said, don’t be surprised to see the Total climb an extra two goals each to give the 200 points a good nudge. Markets still have the Dockers as slight -2.5pt favourites. Love the Over at the 177.5 Total!

Exotics Watch: Load up on Nat Fyfe for 30/35/40+, and don’t sleep on Trent Dumont who finished last season on absolute fire. 'The Frenchman' is value at 25+ or 30+ if you are feeling risky. Aaron Hall can snag 2 goals from half forward for his new club at a good price. Tri-Bets are in play as well depending on the line. Should be fairly close.

View Free Match Predictions: Dockers v Kangaroos

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